ORH_wxman

We’ll always have 2011…that includes weather too.

Euro has clipper for 12/4 and the GEFS has some support there even if the OP doesn’t. Mentioned this to Ray earlier in this thread that the 12/4-12/6 period has some decent meridional flow so while a large ticket event is unlikely until post-12/6, there’s def a chance for something northern stream before that…mostly likely a clipper but if you dig it enough it can turn into a redeveloper/Miller B-east type system. Lots of cold around during that window too so ptype issues would be minimized.

Could be something in the 12/4-12/7 range too but I agree a bit after that seems a little easier. But there’s some pretty good meridional flow during that time so even though there’s some wave spacing problems on guidance, it’s clown range and you never know how shortwaves will look as we get closer.

Wrong thread.

There’s nothing to say other than the pattern is going to be cold for much of early December. That will be a nice table setting for any potential storm systems…we need pretty decent negative departures to get snowstorms in early December outside of paste jobs for elevations. So hopefully the shortwaves cooperate. I can’t say anything that is going to make the pessimists change their tune. Only the weather can do that. I’d like to see a bit more analysis in this thread though and less bickering back and forth. Fingers crossed we get some good legit threats after the first few days of the month. I think the chances are higher than climo for sure in this pattern.

N ORH county above 1000 feet def has a chance. I wouldn’t go gangbusters there yet but it’s not crazy to think they might get several inches if this breaks right. It really is too bad it’s November without an arctic airmass in place.

Gonna need some decent rates too I think for anything other than a sloppy inch or two below 1000 feet. If we can trend 925mb about 1C colder, that would be a big difference over the interior. But right now, I’m fading anything over a couple inches of slop in interior elevated SNE.

12/5 produced a lot of events in the past (2002, 2003, 2009…even 2020 had the interior elevated paste job on 12/5).

It’s been a long time since we’ve had this type of consistently BN temps showing up on ensembles…esp in December but really anytime winter since prob 2021. EPS really is hammering the cold down. GEFS not quite as hard but still BN for the foreseeable future once we get past Friday. Usually the snow chances start manifesting when we get this type of cold in December. Hopefully that happens this time as well.

For selfish reasons, you’d prob welcome some solid cold before too much snow gets laid down in the foothills. Get everything frozen up solid before riding season. Prob the best early-season cold pattern we’ve seen in years…not that the bar has been set very high the last 5 years. But consistent cold in December has been hard to come by since 2017.

12/5 period (give or take a day) still the first one to watch for larger chunk of SNE imho. You have a developing PNA ridge that increases in amplitude quite significantly between about 12/3 and 12/6…so that is a potential flag for northern stream digging down into the mean trough in eastern US. Pretty good antecedent airmass would be in place unless the pattern dramatically changes on guidance.

Weak system with bad antecedent airmass. Sell clowns big time. Esp below 1000-1200 feet. TPV got stuck almost due north of us which is not where you want it. You want it east toward the 50/50 region to get a high building in. That is the main change from some of those colder solutions 3 days ago.

Yeah the MJO would suggest nothing like we’re seeing on model guidance. There’s a pretty big PNA ridge spike shown at around D11-12 that occurs so I’m wondering if that 12/5 period give or take a day is something to watch for a larger scale system. Much more pronounced on EPS than GEFS but still there on the latter.

That WPO has been such a persistent turd and it’s amazing how positive the EPO was last winter too despite it often being progged negative or neutral. It wasn’t as positive as the WPO but that WPO always ended up bullying it so it went positive too…and solidly. Let’s hope this year is different.

I experienced one in the texas panhandle one time. Was up in Dalhart, TX and there was a very strong synoptic wind event and it was relentless. There’s no trees to stop anything out there in the high plains. Just constant battering of 40-50 and gusts way higher.

@CoastalWx Weeklies are starting to cave for 3rd week of December. Previously showing a kind of torchy pattern but it’s keeping that ridge in the west now which delays the warmup. Don’t worry, I’m sure it will flip just in time for a grinch cutter. But interesting to see nonetheless given what we see at the end of the ensembles recently.

Often our best wind events over interior SNE are backside CAA in winter/cold season. We can rip on those.

Only chance of that happening is the PV lobe pushing further SE than currently progged and then sharpening that shortwave just enough to bomb it on the coast. Theoretically plausible but very unlikely.

That’s an upstate NY special on GFS. Does match climo a lot better than an SNE snowstorm. Still hope it comes back SE though. Would be nice to even just get on the board with small accumulations.

Yeah that seems the most likely. Though can’t rule out something smaller embedded around the TPV.

Prob need to start a December thread but EPS not backing down on the PAC pattern. Really consistent with holding that ridge axis right over the west coast

Last December we were relying on a huge progged NAO block. Those are inherently less stable than N PAC pattern…they have a more stochastic behavior. That’s also probably why you hear a lot of Mets say “I’ll roll the dice with a great PAC look any day”…those tend to verify more than random huge NAO blocks. Of course, if we actually get a great NAO block that pins a TPV in SE Canada, we will clean up, but it’s hard to trust model progs that show that. Right now, we’re relying on an NAO block for next week as we wait for the PAC to improve further. So it’s not surprising to see these shifts in the SE Canada look that make it harder to snow here. Esp in November. I’m cautiously optimistic for the first 10 days of December given the vastly improved N PAC. It’s funny…I went back and looked at some of the progs for last December and even the ones where we had some PNA ridging trying to poke up into EPO domain, we had a vortex over the WPO domain…it was always a turd in the punchbowl lurking beneath the surface.

Esp in November. Lol Even the euro is a decent shot of snow over interior N of pike. It’s hard to snow in the CP and lowlands that early.

Ukie is a total whiff. Flat. Lot of uncertainty around that Tday system. I think one thing is more clear though…the airmass is going to be marginal. A few days ago we had a stronger push SE from TPV which made the antecedent airmass better. We don’t see that as much now. Could still change, but if we do get an event, you’d favor elevations with that airmass.

It’s a mean position…what actually makes it nice is that is a lower risk for cutters. But esp for the coast, you want the trough axis pretty close…esp in December.