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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Last week was less favorable. Moisture was really lacking aloft which is not the case this time. Most people will prob miss out in this but I do think it’s going to set up somewhere.
  2. ORH_wxman
    00z NAM back with the strong IVT for central/eastern areas of SNE.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Not sure...but I figured after the holidays you’d be relaxed and may accept your fate of a record snowless winter in Tolland.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Just log off and return after New Years all refreshed.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Yeah and it's also possible the downstream ridging is overdone (or the extent of the western PNA trough)....I know I don't have to tell you that even if you displace that eastern ridge by a couple hundred miles to the south, we'd probably be quite cold as the northern edge of the positive 500mb height anomalies are quite cold underneath...that arctic airmass will be sloped of course.
  6. ORH_wxman
    The extreme -PNA is really crushing the east with warmth in the extended. We can usually deal with a -PNA at this latitude, but not when there entire longwave trough is digging down into Baja. Like, here's the EPS at D15....you can see the AK ridge is totally restored...that is actually quite a stout -EPO, but look at how insane that -PNA is.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Last year's grinch storm was an all timer. Prob 95% of grinch storms couldn't melt off 10"+ of pack in 8 hours like that one did....we had grinch storms in 2007 and 2008 which both failed to melt the pack. Last year's was like the Arnold Schwarzenegger of grinch storms.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Euro was the most paltry out of all guidance down here. It is still showing that finger of snowfall from IVT though S RI up through central MA and S NH.
  9. ORH_wxman
    12z guidance has actually been pretty consistent with the exception of the NAM going nuts on the IVT....most other guidance is pretty much in agreement on 1-2" for a larger chunk of the region. There will likely be some areas of enhanced rates but you just don't know where they will be.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Decent IVT sig over RI/E MA that run.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Yeah if we assume the model is handling the polar domains fairly well, I'm figuring we end up decently colder than it shows at least up in the northern latitudes. It's really hard to have a ridge in AK and some ridging in greenland and end up torching....I'm not even sure how that happens at all outside of a temporary cutter or something.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Oh for sure...if it actually verified...someone would prob get 10-12" fluff bomb from that look. The problem as we've been saying, this might set up 200 miles away too.
  13. ORH_wxman
    The ingredients are there for a good one...we have deep moisture....not dry above like 800mb, lol. Extremely unstable lapse rates occur too. You just need the LL convergence/lift.
  14. ORH_wxman
    3km hugs the coast with it....congrats Scooter.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Soundings become extremely unstable. I mean, this is classic heavy snow sounding from an IVT....I do think there's a decent chance something will set up, but we just don't know where yet.
  16. ORH_wxman
    NAM gone wild with IVT
  17. ORH_wxman
    Yeah this is really it....years ago you only had basic QPF maps and had to use experience to interpret snowfall based on thicknesses/mid-level temps, etc.....now you have a trillion weenie snow maps (many of which are awful...in both directions) that every person has access to and it can muddy the discourse quite a bit....esp beyond D5.
  18. ORH_wxman
    All guidance is rebuilding the EPO ridge pretty clearly around 12/20....we'll see if that date gets pushed back at all but if it doesn't, I'd expect plenty of winter wx chances in late Dec and into Jan.
  19. ORH_wxman
    If anything, there is actually an inverse correlation for the winter with Sept/Oct. The warmest Sept/Oct tend to have colder/snowier winters. You don't want November warm though (which it wasn't this year). Just checking Boston really quick....their top 5 warmest Sep/Oct combos coming into this year was 2017, 1971, 2007, 1947, and 1961 (with 1983 close behind).
  20. ORH_wxman
    Massive torch incoming for about a week or so starting this weekend...well maybe a brief break with FROPA on Sunday but then it torches for much of next week. EPO ridge rebuilds toward 12/18-20 but there will be a lag on our sensible wx.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Euro has about 1-2” for eastern half of SNE and more up into Maine.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Yeah and I think we’re out of time...unless the NAM was a headfake and other guidance comes in beefed up. Best hope for more than 3” is prob someone getting lucky under IVT.
  23. ORH_wxman
    LOL...doesn’t need to when there’s a trough tickling Cabo San Lucas. Storms through BUF or through Chicago...same difference for us.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Wow I thought that was coming NW through about 30 hours and then everything just escapes east. There just isn’t enough concentrated energy to take advantage of the sharper trough. Buckshot vorticity FTL.
  25. ORH_wxman
    There’s nothing obvious. The trough has been trending Southwest on the last few cycles. You really want to see some more concentrated energy...even if a little bit...to help buckle the trough more. We kind of have buckshot vorticity in the flow.
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