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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Column gets colder as we go further into the evening, so rain should change to snow in most places where it is still raining....outer Cape and Islands might be slower though.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Lobster boats coming back with a foot of paste on the deck.
  3. ORH_wxman
    ALB radar being down really sucks....hard to see upstream convergence zones,
  4. ORH_wxman
    No that isn't what I'd forecast....I'd prob forecast 1-2" but emphasize the uncertainty associated with IVT setups. It's always possible you miss out on accumulations in these setups.
  5. ORH_wxman
    ORH will be just far enough inland to avoid the regression.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Taunton was overdue for some screwgies
  7. ORH_wxman
    I don't think that is your meaningful snow if you get any....later this evening is what you'll want to look for. This current stuff is mostly for the shore...might be some flakes inland with it, but prob little if any measurable snow. If this starts to expand and blossom well NW though as we get into the 4-5pm hour, then that would definitely be a good sign.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Look on the bright side, you might conserve a half inch pack.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Yep. BOS literally went a decade without a 12”+ storm from Feb 1983 to March 1993. LOL. SE MA and up into BOS probably have increased their 30 year snowfall by a solid 10-15% in the past 2-3 decades. That is a monster number for a 30 year average to increase for places that avg between 35-50”. Regression has a lot more work to do.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Thursday could be a pretty damned warm, though I worry about the CAD eroding fast enough to maximize it.....most of New England will be backdoored on Wednesday though.
  11. ORH_wxman
    How did he not get 12" in March 2019? too far south?
  12. ORH_wxman
    If we can warm sector on Thursday, we could challenge all time monthly high temp records. We're looking at like +10 to +14C 850 temps. Similar to 12/29/84 and 12/6-7/98.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Radar right now doesn't mean anything....if nothing is blossoming by 7-8pm tonight, then it's prob a bust. IF good snows develop prior to 6pm, then that would be a very good sign.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Next Wed/Thu torch could be "ruined" by a sneaky high pressure to the north. Been showing up on a lot of guidance.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Too early to know how IVT will play out...the precip will basically blossom almost overhead later today and tonight.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Yeah this is pretty much it....it's still pina coladas, parrots, and banana hammocks next week, but the guidance is starting to get more aggressive for a favorable Pacific beyond that. We still are contending with the big -PNA, but it's not digging the trough as much as before. It's more like PAC NW instead of max anomalies down in CA and even into Baja.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Going into Phase 8 would definitely help as we go into late Dec/January....IIRC we actually had a potent phase 8 wave in January 2011 after the huge NAO blocking broke down post-Jan 12th storm. I believe the same thing happened in January 2009 after the NAO blocking broke down early in the month.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Yeah probably, but someone may get lucky with 3 or 4" if there's enough LL convergence.
  19. ORH_wxman
    RGEM likes C/W MA and CT.
  20. ORH_wxman
    NAM tries to bring some 600mb goodies into the Cape late today...might be something to watch there. I'm a bit skeptical, but can't rule it out. 06z Euro wasn't that far off...just a little offshore with them. IF they got some of that outer ML fronto stuff, they could flip to wet snow for several hours.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Even EPS may start offering winter wx chances again around 12/18-12/19. It's not a bad look.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Trough axis isn't really stationary long enough to be a NORLUN, but it gets close. The instability is there though. Would like to see a little more LL convergence....here's the NAM sounding near Ginxy tonight
  23. ORH_wxman
    Ensembles trended a bit better overnight. Still a ways out but perhaps Xmas week can be salvaged. Monster EPO ridge...
  24. ORH_wxman
    Jeez I wake up to like 3 pages of global warming discussion....lol. Model guidance has become more confident in widespread light snows. Someone is prob going to get lucky with a 4”+ lolli too given the nice soundings. It’ll just be a matter of where some LL convergence sets up the strongest and for longest period of time. Good nowcast event at least...these aren’t easy even at 6-8 hours lead time.
  25. ORH_wxman
    You’re trying to find where the best low level convergence is because that is the primary forcing mechanism. Most guidance has been pretty consistent showing it somewhere between Portland ME area down to RI. The “natural” IVT looks like it wants to go over central/eastern SNE but S ME is always in the game because of the natural shape of the coast there which sort of promotes an IVT.
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