ORH_wxman

Yeah seriously. GFS vomited all over itself in the 12/8 event too being way too amped so I’m not buying GFS yet either even though I’d probably lean that way right now.

I’ll maybe believe it if there’s good model agreement on it by 12z tomorrow. But I'm still a skeptic for now. I always hate “waiting” for the cold air to drain down during the event. It rarely works out. There are exceptions of course...one of our recent favorites was 10/30/20.

Yeah you could tell that was probably going to be a pretty snowy solution if it went another couple frames. There was active cold air drain and the low coming out of the OH valley was already pretty far south so the drain wasn’t going to really stop/reverse.

Still a ways out but the clown range NAM looks pretty flat kind of like the euro for this weekend. 18z ICON actually looks like euro except maybe about 10-15 mi north.

I wonder if that move made you an even bigger snow weenie...knowing you moved just before the exceptional ‘76-77 and ‘77-78 winters. So when you got back, you relish it even more.

It was 1980. There was also an arctic airmass in 1983 but the 1980 one was colder.

We had about 6” here. Ripped heavy snow during the morning for about 3-4 hours over a good chunk of SNE. Last Xmas day snowfall before that was about 1” in 2012...saved our white Christmas as we had bare ground the day before. It was a currier and Ives big flake snowfall that lasted about 2 hours between 6-8am or so. We obviously had the big one in 2002 in the interior and then before that you’d have to probably go all the way back to 1978 when about 6” fell on Christmas morning. It actually started very late Xmas eve night before midnight.

Yeah you basically get kind of a parade of shortwaves firehosing off the PAC in a -PNA and then the -NAO helps force them underneath us. -PNA/-NAO was the dominating pattern for much of 2010-2011 actually. Ditto 1970-1971 and even for chunks of 2008-2009. You ideally get a couple random +PNA interludes to help amplify a couple systems which did happen even in those winters mentioned....but the base state being -PNA/-NAO keeps the chances rolling in.

Yeah we need another couple frames for it to materialize but that looks like a slow moving snow dump for New England brewing. Clown range caveats obviously. Even a little northern stream moderate system would be welcomed by most I’m sure.

That -NAO is really going to town. EPS showing the -NAO too migrating/retrograding into Greenland and even back into Davis Strait a bit. I’ve always really liked the -PNA/-NAO pattern for New England historically. Esp in Dec/Jan...it has had a high correlation with good snows here.

That’s a KU setup. Lol...yes it’s clown range but that’s how the -NAO can help you out.

That’s actually a really interesting setup for 12/24-25 brewing on the euro.

Yeah he’s clearly sucked in for pre-Xmas snows. He’s waiting to have a meltdown next week.

Ukie tickled north too for Saturday.

Yep. We may score something before Christmas. The potential is there for sure but the pattern does continue to improve once past Christmas. Dec 18-19 was always a long shot for us in SNE. Maybe the euro will score a coup, but my money is against it.

Yeah that solution is how I envision the system going. Pretty much nada south of MA/NH border. Just not a good antecedent airmass.

Yeah the narcan maps are not correct. You aren’t getting moderate snows that don’t stick. Even at 33-34F any snow that’s under a mile vis is going to stick.

My guess is it still ends up too warm in SNE for snow. But we’ll see. Pretty insistent so far.

Euro is definitely insisting on the colder/flatter look for Saturday. Should be an interesting set of guidance today as we’re getting around the 100 hour mark.

Cutters are def still possible right into late December but the pattern is colder than the one we’ve been in...so it’s also possible we end up on the colder/snowier side of things if we can get some good timing on a couple systems. I agree the pattern looks even better as we go into New Years...but sometimes we focus too much on perfection when merely “good” can often bring home the bacon. Patterns like Dec 2007 and Dec 2008 are good examples of that.

Basically whole month of January would rock if that happened, but weeklies are not very useful beyond Week 2/3.

Prob as soon as the -NAO shows up stronger on future runs. They'll whine their way to 50 inches in 3 weeks. Then they'll quickly forget it and irrationally fear the -NAO again next winter.

The longer range beyond looks even better too than the Pre-Xmas pattern. That has some higher end potential than just the SWFE pattern.

The NAO has definitely helped the overall trend the past few days in the mean H5 anomaly look leading into Christmas. Here's a loop of the 12z EPS the past 4 days starting Dec 10th and ending with today's run....you can see how much more stout the SE ridge was on early runs.

You can see it here....it helps force everything further south...some ensemble members are trying to show this so its something to watch. It would increase the margin for error if we get that look.