ORH_wxman

Well, the NAO did help prevent cutters....we only had one single cutter for like a 6 week period starting around New Years. Our biggest problem was we couldn't buy a storm to phase during the January pattern. The airmass was kind of stale but it was still marginally cold enough to support snow. I think ORH had a grand total of 3 days with a high temp over 40F last January despite the month being +3...that's hard to pull off. We were joking how we really needed Tip's hadley cell gradient during January....but it was nowhere to be found, lol.

It's an impressive -NAO showing up on that run....but storms can still cut in a -NAO. The NAO just gives more wiggle room, but if you have a couple shortwaves phase, you can still cut.

Yeah this is what I view it as....S NJ to all of VA...and the zone in between.

Southern NJ is def mid-atlantic....but pron not NNJ. Hilarious how all of NY State is labeled Mid-atlantic on that map....lol

My son was up at 6am and made me come outside in the snow with him.....what a weenie.

About an inch of nice fluffy snow. Looks nice out there.

Snowing pretty good here. Everything covered. About a quarter inch so far.

IVT becomes a bit more pronounced in the 9-10pm timeframe. That’s where we might see some enhancement of that lighter precip shield. You can see it pretty clearly on the modeled streamline analysis.

Yeah seeing a +20 or -20 day in the summer is much harder than in the winter. In the winter, we can have a high of 0 or 5F or a high of 65-70F. In the summer your extremes are probably 55F to 100F for most of the area for highs.

That is an amazing fire hose that hits the Sierras starting Saturday night. It lasts for like 3 days too and these aren’t high snow levels.

Some steady light snow here in the past 15-20 min. Emphasis on light. Let’s see if we can ramp up the echoes as that stuff from W MA comes in

Column gets colder as we go further into the evening, so rain should change to snow in most places where it is still raining....outer Cape and Islands might be slower though.

Lobster boats coming back with a foot of paste on the deck.

ALB radar being down really sucks....hard to see upstream convergence zones,

No that isn't what I'd forecast....I'd prob forecast 1-2" but emphasize the uncertainty associated with IVT setups. It's always possible you miss out on accumulations in these setups.

ORH will be just far enough inland to avoid the regression.

Taunton was overdue for some screwgies

I don't think that is your meaningful snow if you get any....later this evening is what you'll want to look for. This current stuff is mostly for the shore...might be some flakes inland with it, but prob little if any measurable snow. If this starts to expand and blossom well NW though as we get into the 4-5pm hour, then that would definitely be a good sign.

Look on the bright side, you might conserve a half inch pack.

Yep. BOS literally went a decade without a 12”+ storm from Feb 1983 to March 1993. LOL. SE MA and up into BOS probably have increased their 30 year snowfall by a solid 10-15% in the past 2-3 decades. That is a monster number for a 30 year average to increase for places that avg between 35-50”. Regression has a lot more work to do.

Thursday could be a pretty damned warm, though I worry about the CAD eroding fast enough to maximize it.....most of New England will be backdoored on Wednesday though.

How did he not get 12" in March 2019? too far south?

If we can warm sector on Thursday, we could challenge all time monthly high temp records. We're looking at like +10 to +14C 850 temps. Similar to 12/29/84 and 12/6-7/98.

Radar right now doesn't mean anything....if nothing is blossoming by 7-8pm tonight, then it's prob a bust. IF good snows develop prior to 6pm, then that would be a very good sign.

Next Wed/Thu torch could be "ruined" by a sneaky high pressure to the north. Been showing up on a lot of guidance.