ORH_wxman

IVTs are “rare” in the sense that they are modeled way more than they happen...but they actually aren’t THAT rare in an absolute sense. We probably get at least 1-2 per winter. Usually they are like an inch or two though. The ones that produce >4” of snow are definitely less frequent. I could count those on one hand per decade. We had two big ones in back to back winters in Feb 2013 and Jan 2014 in ORH but not sure we’ve had one since then that I can think of off the top of my head. We’re actually kind of “due”. We had good ones on Feb 22, 2007, Dec 19-20, 2007 and then again on December 20, 2008. Then we had one on 2/3/09 to cap off that great 6 weeks in the 08-09 winter before the pattern changed.

LR guidance has been really bad since about mid November. That said, there's some building consensus on a period of mild weather mid-month. Not set in stone though....GEFS have been kind of stubborn.

Happened in April 1996 too....something about that year 1996, lol....and Dec 19-20, 2008 and Dec 21, 2008. The twin Feb 1994 storms as well.

Monday almost looks like just a FROPA on the EPS. Maybe a hint of a wave. Saturday OTOH looked pretty good for a legit system on the ensembles:

EPS is a lot more bullish for Saturday than the OP and less bullish for Monday.

Yeah that's a big hit for 12/6 on Euro...only 7 more days!

12/6 is going to come in wintry on the Euro this run....prob a redeveloper look.

Euro is a little too flat for 12/4...gets the south coast and Cape with some light snow though. Wouldn't take much though to get a nice stripe over the rest of the region....just need that shortwave a little more robust and not shredded as much in the flow.

Both GFS ad Ukie are in on the Saturday/Sat night event. GGEM isn't biting yet....suppressed and flat.

Yeah you should count 2017...just like I won't count last year. I think "Technically" I had a sloppy inch or two still hanging on at 7am last Christmas amidst 60F downpours but it was gone a couple hours later. I'm not even counting that...lol

The problem is you poo-poo 12" snowfalls in your backyard too....so you end up like the reverse JB....there was never a bust you didn't call.

It's also a good sign that these putrid patterns shown in the long range have gotten muted or better as we get closer. It wasn't long ago that the EPS was slamming us with a mostly lost/torched first week of December. Now we may have a threat or two to track.

Not looking very good. I agree with Chris on the dry air aloft. If all the saturation is below 800mb then it’s tough unless you have like -12C 850 temps and you produce all your dendrites down at that level...we’ve seen that in cold IVT/Norlun events...but we don’t have a profile like that this time. Plus we just don’t have a lot of low level lift....the convergence looks kind of weak. Maybe it will get better but I’d sell anything over some flakes to maybe a coating. Maybe someone on south shore gets a little luckier.

Hi 12z res rgem actually likes near scooter. Over a half inch of liquid equivalent there.

GFS actually shows it too but it’s a lot lighter. More like an inch or two in spots.

Very old school but it’s on page two here http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/NORLUN2.pdf

3k was pretty big too. Need to see some other guidance get in board though. Euro has been extremely paltry which is a red flag.

NAM hitting IVT hard over E MA

Still gotta watch the IVT potential on this but I don’t think anyone is going to see more than a couple inches even if the IVT sets up. Most will prob just see a few flakes.

Yeah I noticed the radar echoes definitely were maxing out west of where they usually do on those upslope events. The Hudson valley was all lit up and just barely east of them looked like the max. I wonder if backedgeapproaching in Manchester VT had better ratios than you.

I’d sign on the dotted line for 1-3” from this threat right now. It’s unlikely we see more than flurries or a coating at this point. It’s too bad the lead shortwave is stealing the baroclinic zone. It screws us over because that second shortwave digging behind it is quite potent and likely would have produced a nice solid advisory event if the lead one wasn’t there. This will mostly just be an upslope enhancer in NNE and not much else.

Yeah I’m not sure I remember so much volatility in the D9-12 range before on the EPS when it comes to larger scale features like the EPO/WPO...like you said, one run tries to form a black hole over AK from a fish farting in the Aleutians and then next run we see a nice ridge there or at least nothing resembling a vortex.

EPS starts getting better at the very end but today’s run was definitely an ugly one. Been a lot of volatility on these runs.

Interesting that the OP euro has been trying to cut that 12/5 system but EPS keep insisting on basically nothing. Everything crunched south.

RGEM hits western CT really good with IVT. Like that’s 3-6” for a lot of peeps there.