ORH_wxman

The pattern in clown range is totally different than 12 hours ago. Popping a temporary EPO ridge and flooding the CONUS with arctic air.

Even more comical is the warmup between 12z Thu and 18z Thu...despite winds going almost due north on a trajectory from dendrite's fanny to ORH....it must think the diurnal heating over interior New England has the same enery per sq meter as Mercury or Venus.

Yeah that ain't happening with that sfc low track.

Yeah that banana needs to be rotated counter clockwise about 90 degrees.

I love how embedded the N trend is in everyone's head for these events.

Unless the high position drastically changes (which is still possible), the sfc will almost undoubtedly trend colder based on where it is N of CAR. Model bias 101....eroding the sfc cold too fast, esp when a stout arctic high straps its fanny into a row boat in the St LAwrence seaway near Quebec City.

Too late...he's already sucked in.

I'm looking at the flow around 108 hours and trying to figure out why this won't trend north. The energy on some of these flatter runs is more sheared, but all I can think of is when the energy inevitably comes in a little more organized on future runs, that downstream ridging is going to amp right up. There's no blocking to stop it or slow it down. The progressive nature of the flow is really the limiting factor.

Sfc is too warm on the GFS which will definitely screw up the NARCAN maps. Sell the sfc warmth W of 128 with the high just N of CAR.

I do like seeing some southerly solutions. This thing is prob gonna trend north with that pig SE ridge so we're prob gonna need some wiggle room.

I'd take the GFS even....it's like 3-4" here. Obviously I'd like more, but I wouldn't complain with an advisory snowfall with some ZR mixed in there.

A tiny bit of synoptic moisture with that...that's the clipper we were keeping half an eye on. Should be good for the upslope zones.

We had like 3 inches of crud (snow changing to IP/ZR) on 12/30-12/31 and then the separate 1/1 event gave us about 3-4"....late bloomer though and got your area much harder. Even near Ray up by NH border I think had 6-8".

Yeah and there's no guarantee the pattern is that great in the second half....obviously a lot of the time it comes down to timing. Both 2007 and 2008 weren't great patterns. They were serviceable though and because they were very active, we managed to hit a few events in close proximity when all the cold in Canada bled down over us. We also saw the downside as we had to withstand a cutter or two. Still, those types of patterns are way better than the death vortex over the Bering where there's no cold at all to tap into....ala 2011 and 2015.

12/07 turned to shit after the norlun on 12/19-12/20....we got basically all of our snow in a 7-8 day period. We did get a smaller event on 12/31 that mixed plus those advisory amounts up near the NH border in 12/3 (more up in NNE), but the Lion's share of snow fell between 12/13-12/20. I agree we won't be as prolific, but just pointing out that if the pattern actually flips to more favorable sometime between 12/15 and 12/20, there's plenty of time to rack up pretty big numbers. It often only takes a couple events in close proximity (2008 also did this).

Yeah I liked that trend. Still would like a tick or two more on beating down that ridge but the trend was there that run. More amplified AK/Aleutian ridge for sure that run. Hopefully we can get away with only a week or less of a junk pattern. If we sneak in a SWFE in 12/8-12/9 even better.

It didn’t have a blockbuster signature storm. But it was cold and active which led to prolific monthly totals and deep pack. Btw weeklies definitely look decent going into late Dec and January. They are agreeing with the EPS for now that mid-month is junk.

We need the -NAO to show back up for the '70-'71 analog to hit harder....but the PAC def looks similar. '70-'71 didn't have a ridiuclously poleward Aleutian ridge.

Hopefully we trend that a bit more amplified in AK/Bering

Still not liking the EPS in the 11-15....need a little more ridge amplification in the PAC to press that cold down. It's not far away from being good...central and western Canada are frigid....this isn't like a 2011 or 2015 furnace across the entire continent where the source is gone and on the other side of the pole...it's lurking, but we don't want to get stuck on the wrong side of the gradient.

Another chance D10....pretty active pattern.

You'll want that high to hang on a little longer than shown....which it might. Way too far out for details. The thing could be hundreds of miles different by next week. But verbatim, that high sliding east starts to turn the BL into a problem inside 128/I-95.

Pretty classic SWFE on Euro. High end advisory to low end warning for much of MA and into NH/VT and S ME...N CT may be ok too on that run.

Yeah I'm hoping we see a trend more toward the -EPO look that the MJO composite phase 7 maps have as we move closer. It was especially strong on Ray's Nina composite. If that does happen, then we really just have to deal with the turd pattern for a week or less.

Oh nice...mine wasn't Nina-specific, but yeah, its the same idea. That's a very storng signal N of AK which would be good for us. That would shove the gradient south some compared to current guidance. If we can shove that gradient south about 1-2 degrees of latitude from current guidance, then we'd prob be in decent shape. The GEFS haven't been as bad in the LR as the EPS and the OP GFS. Feels like the OP GFS has been consistently ugly out in D11-15....but the GEFS are not.