ORH_wxman

Yeah the upslope spots will see some action on Friday/Saturday. Pretty good ULL spinning there nin N Maine and S Quebec for a couple days wrapping around some cyclonic flow and moisture.

What is good is that all the ensemble guidance (EPS/GEFS/GEPS) all show the Aleutian ridge rebuilding into the Bering Strait....so this isn't just one model ensemble showing it. We just need to keep an eye on the timing....if it keeps getting pushed back, then that would be trouble. If not, then we're probably going to have a nice period IMHO in mid-December.

We actually had the ice storm that week....then a brief torch after the ice storm before things went crazy for a few days 12/19-12/21

Yeah model gudiance has punted very early December for a few days now....we're gonna get a full torch for a few days there. But they are pretty adamant about rebuilding the Aleutian ridging into the WPO region by about Dec 7-9 or so. That should set the stage for some cold air bleeding down into northern CONUS and get some winter wx threats.

Looked like great times. Really bummed I had to bail on this one at the last second but couldn’t attend in good conscience being under the weather. I’ll def try and make the next one.

Yes. It’s looking like we could go full-torch for a few days in early December as the pattern shuffles. But we’ll see. If the NAO hangs a little tougher then the mild air would be blunted. Longer range guidance has been fairly volatile so confidence is low. That Aleutian ridge building up has been pretty consistent though. It’s just a long ways out so the timing isn’t going to be exact.

Everyone woke up this morning in my house under the weather. Normally I’d still come but I can’t in good faith...esp with the holiday just a few days away. Real bummer. Was looking forward to this one too. I’ll def try make next one.

Here's the EPS....you can see how the longwave pattern is pretty decent synoptically for a threat....you obviously need the details to work out, but the larger pieces are there..... You have your -NAO forcing the PV lobe under it into 50/50 low position while you have the main trough axis still back in the center of the CONUS and a nice PNA ridge to help amplify anything diving into that trough. Still a long shot but it's at least a compelling setup.

The pattern is definitely trying to become favorable for a threat somewhere in that Nov 28-30 time frame. Nice little PV-lobe is trying to get forced underneath the -NAO after T-day which sets the stage for a shortwave to run into that cold air supply...aided by a little PNA ridge popping out west at the same time. Tip has been mentioning this symbiotic relationship between the NAO tanking and the PNA rising....and maybe this is finally the models "seeing" the correction event. We're still a long ways out, but it is a period to keep an eye on.

It' about 50/50 here I'd say. Back around late Aug and Sept, it had crept up to like 70-75% masked, but has since fallen back down to about half. Still not down to the low of maybe 20% we saw back in June (mostly pre-Delta).

Once you are inside with food or a drink, they won't care. Everyone takes them off. Something like 94% of MA adults are vaxxed anyway...it's mostly a performative mandate.

Little piggy never really gets established....transient....which is a good thing.

2019 went snowless in both Oct/Nov here. I’m using “snowless” as a synonym for no measurable since Kevin said flakes don’t count. We had it happen in 2017 too.

Pretty nice gradient pattern developing 2nd week of Dec

December looks pretty nice here on the weeklies....lets hope they have a clue. Lots of cold up north and we're mostly in on it in New England.

Yeah that looks tough....hopefully they get blitzed after like 12/5 as more western troughing takes hold. Sometimes it only takes one monster system out there to fix a couple bad weeks.

Weeklies also think the AK vortex is transient....quick Aleutian ridge spikes and we are into a classic Nina gradient pattern by 2nd week of December according to them.

Yeah I always get a little nervous seeing it show up, but what I get most nervous about is seeing no signs of it really going away....and we're not at the latter stage yet. The ensembles do appear to try and start rebuilding the Aleutian ridge late in the game. In addition, the vortex first shows up at a time when we have strong -NAO blocking so we actually don't get brutally torched. This occasionally has happened in the past like late Dec 2008/early Jan 2009....had a temporary little one-eyed pig but we happened to build a huge NAO block during the 8-12 days it hung around so we got 2 winter wx events anyway (12/31/08 and 1/7-8/09). The vortex then eroded, replaced by a ridge, and we froze our balls off the rest of that month.

A lot of times we just end up getting prolonged CAD on cutters....then a brief warm sector. Probably not happening next week, but then again it's only November. Much rarer for it to happen deeper into winter.

The pattern is still kind of ugly for the very end of the month and first few days of December....it's not a total torch, but we're losing a lot of the cold in Canada on that look....but if we keep just enough PNA ridging and some remnant NAO blocking/weakness, it can work. The good news though is it looked like at the VERY end of the ensemble runs last night, the Aleution/Bering ridge was trying to rebuild which would be ideal as we go further into early December. But I don't think people should be surprised if we struggle a bit the first week of the month should the temporary AK/Bering vortex set itself up in late November.

Tamarack throwing his laptop against his healthiest spruce tree while Tblizz bitches his way to 6"+ of mashed potatoes.

Gonna have to watch for shenanigans with that block next week....even 00z Euro retro'd the storm enough to get accumulating snow into SNE, albeit not as much snow as the GFS had. It's not a likely outcome, but with a block like that you have to keep an eye open.

Deepest pack to your north in ORH was probably March 2001 but you were likely too far south for that month to eclipse the Jan '96 pack....though you must have come close in early Feb 2011. If you go back far enough, the pack was probably rivaled in Feb 1961. January 1987 got really deep too in N ORH county....prob 40-something inches. I think I measured 43-44" in February 2015, but that was a couple inches shy of March 2001. January 1996 was similar to 2015.

It's only 11/17....this is more for the pattern at the end of November....we could easily reload a good December pattern a week to 10 days into the month. The T-day weekend pattern doesn't look as cold though for sure right now.

Pulling the plug on what?