ORH_wxman

It'll definitely be less at non-radiator spots. Radiational cooling has been the biggest casualty of CC.

Yes Hudson Bay is lagging badly....the arctic ocean though and adjacent seas are way ahead of recent years. Hudson Bay had no ice at this point in 2016, 2012, 2010, 2006, and 2003 too, so while rare, it isn't unheard of.

Those of us along the pike are always conflicted...

EPS was a bit paltry on the Sunday/Monday system last night. Would like to see it come back on board a bit more. But there’s still plenty of time.

Haven't fired up the heated sidewalks yet? My monitor is saved from a high-impact event for another day.

Chukchi sea froze over faster than any year since after the 2012 monster melt. The difference is 2021 also has refrozen on the Atlantic side very fast unlike that 2012 autumn. That's why we're more like the early 2000s right now for extent

You realize that it's like 5-6 days out still, right? This isn't a 3 day lead time right now. It's fine to point out the possibility (hell, I linked to my post 4 days ago pointing out the favorability of the pattern for Nov 28-30), but "locking" it in is ridiculous.

He cant help himself....man, even 2014 Kevin wasn't this bipolar.

That is interesting....KBOS went to crap in the spring too after last winter. You can see when they fixed the REALLY bad issues back in spring of 2020, but then the step down to crappy (but not quite as bad as before) in spring 2021 and now getting back to normal in fall 2021

EPS basically cancelled it too...maybe a brief torch around D10.

Actually pretty decent mean for 6 days out...has measurable snowfall for most of the area.

Not the final solution of course....that was close to something a lot better. Verbatim though, prob just some light snow mostly S of pike on that run for Sunday.

Euro is going to have snow here on Sunday...possibly into Monday too...backside energy trying to dive in so we'll see if it goes to town, but even the current solution has light snow falling on Sunday in SNE.

PRob going to be getting good upslope snows on Friday too...even over at BW. This looks like a pretty robust event because there's a lot of deeper level synoptic moisture associated with it.

GEFS actually cancels any torch at all....just reloads the cold before the mild air ever has a chance to make it into New England.

Ukie with a little nuke next Monday. Canadian trying too....GFS not interested.

Yeah we know the caveats. Guidance has been volatile so nothing is locked.

Pretty classic “good La Niña” look on that run where the N tier gets cold and active storm track. You can see the gradient there on the 850 temp anomalies (and it’s easy to see at H5 too). That’s definitely what we are hoping for. It helps that the Atlantic isn’t horrific...almost kind of neutral look there. PV also displaced a little south toward our side of the pole.

I’d be surprised if we don’t at least get the “first flakes” monkey off our back for many of the areas who haven’t seen them yet. Prob a lot of popcorn snow showers around with that upper level cold pool even if we don’t get a real storm.

EPS looked really solid last night. We’ll take this for sure....

May have to watch for a follow-up clipper if that Sunday/Monday system gets crunched offshore. The cold definitely has been getting prolonged on guidance. Seems like we may only torch for a brief time now...hopefully that holds.

The anomalies up there were incredible that winter. That had to be like a minus 3-sigma event.

This is the same "system" from the post I made several days ago....interesting that it has reappeared recently (GGEM has it too but just a day earlier).

Maybe...there's a lot of uncertainty in our area actually for the first several days of December....several pieces of guidance are trying to drill a localized cold shot via a PV lobe into NE while the upper plains torch away....that could shorten the amount of time we have any real true torchy weather. Here's an example from the 12z GFS below....yes, its clown range so obviousl this can/will change, but we don;t know which direction it will change. Maybe we end up torchier, but we could also end up colder/snowier like the 12z GGEM shows

Most of those early Dec 1995 days in BOS were below average. I think we only cracked 40F maybe twice in ORH during that stretch.....but the real snow started on 12/9 when we got about 5 inches and then some ZR (BOS changed to rain in that one). We did have some leftover snow from 11/29/95 still in spots though before 12/9.