ORH_wxman

Happy hour NAM doesn’t disappoint.

Best chance is this evening. Might see some precip blossom almost overhead. If it doesn’t happen by 8 or 9pm then it’s toast.

EPS is definitely showing the folded over WPO ridge now into the EPO domain...look N of AK here

Yeah the comma head precip tries to rejuvenate late this PM and evening. So that’s when the best chance for any accumulation would be. If this ULL was like 100 miles south I’d be a lot more bullish but as is, it’s kind of too little too late but maybe enough for a quick burst of steadier snow.

Here’s a good look at what I’m talking about

It’s a really active pattern for early December. One of these might cut but I think there will prob be a winter threat in here too. OP run is still folding over the WPO ridge into an EPO block north of AK out in the extended. That is a really good look to keep the frigid air in Canada and into the northern tier of CONUS. Lets hope the EPS shows that happening more. Even last night sort of hinted at it. But with the OP run being pretty insistent maybe it will actually lead the way.

Yeah I’ll consider anything > 1” a win this early. There’s going to be more chances too...the pattern looks pretty active over the next 10-12 days. They all won’t be snow chances but probably at least one of them will be.

About an inch or two for eastern areas of SNE with another enhanced area up in NW MA and S VT with 2-3” on the euro.

I’ll be happy with C-1”. These don’t usually produce well on W wind. Your area may do a bit better...and esp hubbdave’s region on the other side of the ORH hills spine. They could grab a couple inches and it wouldnt shock me.

GGEM digs this pretty far though. That’s still worth watching. Kind of surprised it didn’t spit out more

GFS hasn’t been playing ball with this system for a couple days now. It’s been the furthest north with that shortwave and this run is no different.

RGEM was digging pretty good but just couldn’t quite get conveyor system going in time. I agree with tip that some of these runs also ha e spacing interference. RGEM seemed that way...but it was still enough to drop a couple inches in eastern areas and then it croaked downeast/midcoast Maine.

These are both tonight’s event. Not Nov 28-29

If it comes back he will have gone from no snow through Xmas, to 4-8”, to just flurries and then back to a hit again in a span of 3 days.... If we’re ever running a forecasting clinic, we could put that 3 day set of posts together as a perfect example of what NOT to do. It will be like those cheesy videos we used to have to watch in school in health class or something where they show some dumb kids deciding to drink or do drugs but the acting is horrible. Instead we’ll just use Kevin’s posts in place of the horrible actor.

Enjoy it because it’s all down hill from here.

Yeah that’s the key. Getting that northern stream to send the vort to our south while going neutral tilt before it reaches us.

NAM gone wild.

NAM improved from 18z too. Still escaping a bit but that was pretty nice looking with the northern stream shortwave track.

It’s significantly south imho. It’s enough to matter anyway. Here’s 18z on top and 12z at the bottom at the same time:

Well it was the first run in several cycles that deepened the northern stream shortwave further south. So at least for now the trend of it being flatter has stopped which is what we need to get this back to being a bigger deal.

18z euro coming back now a bit. That’s a pretty decent look for SNE. Prob a nice advisory stripe of snow. Maybe even low end warning lollis for interior E Ma?

18z NAM looks like kaka now too. Gonna need some reversal of the trend at 00z tonight. We’re not burying that northern stream as much on today’s runs.

18z NAM gone wild for tomorrow night. That’s prob like 3-5” for Ray, lol. 1-3” for much of the rest of E/C MA

Still looks like Ka-ka in the d12-15 range but it’s actually trying to balloon the Aleutian ridge again at the very end, so maybe this will be fleeting or get seriously muted like the early December signal did...that’s the hope anyway.

OP euro was folding over the WPO ridge into a little EPO block north of AK in clown range...we’ll have to see if that is something that gains traction because it would change the outlook for the second week of December.