ORH_wxman

Yep...last legit good January was prob 2018..and even that was mostly dogshit after 1/10....2015 was crap until the last 10 days of the month.

Yeah Mar looks ok....Feb looks pretty good actually...that would be a lot of overrunning type events and big gradient. Even though we're on the northern edge of the oranges, that's a good spot at H5. You can bet below that level would be frigid on the north side of that gradient.

Dec looks excellent on that composite. Agree that Jan is dogshit there....hopefully it changes.

Yes the old records were kept at Brainard

Tday 1971 was the really big one with over a foot in ORH (but mostly rain inside 128). But I believe there was a 2-4” snow to sleet/ice event in 1985 too. I was only 4 for that one so barely remember but we were up visiting from Texas and I remember losing power...it was almost perfect timing since it was right as the food was done cooking. Everyone ate in candlelight. Of course we had the pretty big event on Tday 1989, the day before Tday in 2002, and then also the day before Tday in 2014. 2005 had a smaller event on Tday itself. We also had small events the day before Tday in 1994 and 1996 which gave us white thanksgivings.

Weeklies def look seasonably chilly for late month...agreeing with the end of the ensemble run. So something to watch. They keep a decent pattern into early December too, but the western ridge starts to pancake a bit and produce some ridging across the southern US, almost a pseudo-gradient pattern for a time. Getting out into clown range by that point, but figured I'd mention it.

Yeah there is some higher terrain there that got hit decently...it was mostly like 650-700+ feet in that area but it got bad quickly once you got above that elevation.

EPS trying to amplify that EPO/PNA combo ridge a little more today....something to watch in terms of any chance of winter wx in the 2nd half of the month:

The damage line was amazing. It literally sliced ORH in half....the south side of the city had very little icing except the hills above about 600 feet there. But up on the north side of the city, the icing damage was pretty bad all the way down to 500-550 feet. Most of the north side of the city is 600+ feet anyway, but even the lower parts were bad..and of course as you went up 190 it was awful even down to 300-350 feet in the lowest parts of Fitchburg/Leominster.

14F up on MWN....good indicator of the airmass. Solid cold for this time of the year....nothing extreme, but a good cold shot....like 5 to 8F below normal for highs.

"I'm only asking for a once in 50 to 100 year event"

Yep, the funny part about that was about an hour or two earlier, i had gone for a walk and noticed the ice accreting decently, but still a decent amount of runoff of the water. I made the comment on the forum "I think we dodged a bullet"....but then all hell started breaking loose not long after that....LOL. I lost power like 20 minutes after that post, and then another hour or so after that the shotgun blasts started. Here's a couple more from that one....I'll have to go back and post all of them again at some point since the old forum is where they used to be and it doesn't exist anymore.

Yep, this is always my favorite pic I took during the storm....look at the icicles....they are not pointing straight down. The wind ripping from 20 knots out of the northeast did that

It's possible it was was 11/13/04 too, but that one didn't have much, if any, ice north of the CT/MA border. There was a little down in CT I think.

Massive juiced southern stream system slamming up into a marginal polar high in Quebec. It had very solid ageo flow. The only reason it wasn't way worse for areas closer to Boston and down into CT/NRI was the airmass was just a little too marginal. The synoptic setup was good though...and we even had a mesolow that forms to the east of BOS and went into the gulf of Maine....if the airmass had been like 2-3F colder, then even into metro Boston prob would have had a lot of ice and the 128 belt would have been decimated....and certainly your area to Kevin's too....but both of you missed out by like 0.5-1F....razor thin margin. Here is the loop: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2008/us1212.php

Prob Nov 16, 2002. That was actually a pretty big ice storm for the elevations of N CT and far S MA. We had some ZR in ORH but a lot of sleet too so it wasn't as icy as just a bit south.

I remember going outside on Winter Hill during that one and seeing it immediately when I went outside. Didn't even have to wait for my eyes to adjust to the dark.

You already know this....but for those that don't: Unfortunately very rare in New England....you almost need one of those "due south wind" type events where everything is eroding but someone like Chris up in Greenfield rots at 30F for several hours with ZR and a place like ORH is 40F. But usually those type of events are very transitory....the ZR changes to rain within a few hours. The longer duration ZR events up here all require strong ageostrophic northerly flow and usually that means it's going to be strong through the lower 2000-2500 feet in the atmosphere, so we end up with higher elevations actually doing better until you reach like 2500-3000 feet or so when the temp starts rising again.

Really heavy frost here.

6 hourly shows 32

I think it’s 11/12/77. Maybe the 13th. Can’t remember now. The weaseled a 32 on the nose last night so this year won’t break that record. ORH is running a bit warm right now too.

You had like 15-18" in 3/13/18

Maybe the tip of Cape Ann isn't. But most of it would be in the 50 zone. They can be kind of boom or bust there. There's also no way you didn't break 30" in 2017-2018. The 1/4/18 and 3/13/18 events alone almost get you there....then add events like Xmas 2017, Feb 17-18, Mar 7-8 and then other random 2-4" type events

I'd prob draw SNE to look more like this (I rushed this just now, so I didn't put in as many obsessive details as usual)

Yeah it's all bogus north of BOS....those north shore towns should be over 50....unless maybe you are literally out in the ocean like the tip of Cape Ann or maybe some of those communities near Marblehead. The 75+ should also extend down to far NW CT in Litchfield county and you could prob put a 100-spot or two in the northern Berkshires on the crest there over 2000-2500 feet.