ORH_wxman

Yeah looked a shade more amped....no surpise given what we just saw from the RGEM

Prob down in CT somewhere....my gut says prob mostly south of you, but maybe you get in on it. Hard to say yet since it's fairly narrow.

Wrong thread

Yeah, phin over to dryslot is looking solid....the bigger question is does this come south enough to give warning snows to the pike or the MA/NH border...or does it bump north and introduce a bit more sleet there, but I still think you'd flip to plenty of snow anyway.

Dude, we all have a general feeling of how these often trend....but that doesn't mean there's no exceptions. I think everyone is kind of expecting a bump back north at some point, but the question is do we trend this a little colder first. Southern stream juicy overrunners will try and bump north late in the game in my experience.

My gut is a compromise to the north....so I'll prob get a lot of pellets/ZR.

Congrats Ray

Def a tick warmer at 72h aloft, but juicier....that's trouble for the ice areas

Looks really similar to 06z. Its a tick colder over NE at 63 hours but a tick warmer over PA...so that southern wave might try and push north.

Still there.

Trended colder....I guess that model can be used very lightly for trend purposes....but I'd never use it for verbatim solutions.

12z RGEM came in warmer than 06z....still really torchy. It does flip everyone over eventually, but a lot of qpf wasted on rain. Even CNE gets a good slug of rain before the flip.

FWIW, the 3km looks even just a hair colder than the 12km.

That might be like 2-3 inches of pellets in the pike region.

NAM is def more suppressed than 06z so far.

You just completely made this up.

More typical La Nina type system.

This is a latitude deal….inland vs coast won’t make much difference.

Euro does get prob a couple inches of snow at the end down to the pike region. Definitely colder but not as juicy.

EPS shifted south too but it’s still solidly north of most guidance.

The western ski resorts are the worst. You’ll see like 2 huge caution signs/markers put up in front of a dinner plate sized patch of ice and everyone avoiding it like the plague. Anyone who skis out east just laughs at them. It’s so dry out there they never get real ice like we do out east. Sierras get a little but the Rockies almost never get it.

Gets a late press…esp at surface…despite being a little more amped early on. The southern stream is producing a pretty nice wave and northern stream trying to enhance it at the end…might actually be a nice burst of snow even into SNE if we could see another panel or two.

Pretty sure you’ll be fine in the end. Maybe a little rain but you’ll flip to snow and get plenty imho. Hopefully euro is being a little too amped like it sometimes is at this range. But I’m always leery of the torchy trends on these overrunning events. Sometimes they can just keep going for several cycles.

Actually looks more amped to me. I’m on my phone but pretty sure it’s obvious enough. This one’s going north.

I think it was Feb 1992 I went to Killington with my dad for a 5-6 day ski trip during winter break. They prob had about half the trails open. Brown grass showing on a ton of the closed ones. That year was really bad but even some other years we did day trips had plenty of trails closed due to lack of snow and it was mid/late winter when there usually is ample snow pack up there. But not during those lean years. It was a great time to learn to ski though because once the winters got good, you didn’t even flinch if there was an icy patch. I was used to skiing on huge slabs of ice during the lean years, lol.