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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Screaming winds
  2. ORH_wxman
    Your mixing up 2017-2018 and 2018-2019....1/4/18 was the huge storm. In 2019, our one big one was 3/4/19 (esp for SE areas). We had several moderate events though in Jan/Feb that year but they favored more interior than where you are.
  3. ORH_wxman
    No shortage of SWFE opportunities next week on the Euro. They might not work out but the chances are there. Beats something like the first 10-12 days of Dec 2018 IMHO....when we were sitting there in a cold pattern waiting for a single storm and watched central Virginia get 18" of snow and then the pattern flipped and we ran the table the rest of the month with nada.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Hopefully we have a few more Quebec highs than that season. That is what really separated that year from something snowier like 2007-2008.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Lot of western troughing though so that would make cutters a high risk...which this run has a lot of. On the flip side, there's some pretty good antecedent airmasses so there's some front enders and any of them could trend a lot colder...esp at the sfc. I think it could be pretty good for NNE....not sure on SNE though.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Lol....dryslot took the bait
  7. ORH_wxman
    Except in January when we needed more gradient.....lol
  8. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it was really the 12/19 storm...you could count the ice storm on 12/11-12/12 if you wanted to but it only affected part of the interior and it torched a couple days later for a couple days. 2008 is actually an example of a marginal pattern with a ton of cold in Canada that ended up producing despite not a lot of cold down in New England in the means. We were like +2 that month IIRC. But it was very active and with cold lurking around we got 2 or 3 systems timed correctly.
  9. ORH_wxman
    People are always impatient at the beginning. 2010 was one of the worst too....I remember the epic meltdowns that December.
  10. ORH_wxman
    1970, 1975, 2007, 2008, 2010.....keep in mind this is for ORH too, the coast had even less on 12/10
  11. ORH_wxman
    Still a decent disconnect between GEFS and EPS for mid-month....GEFS are definitely more favorable for winter wx than EPS which look mild/ugly for several days in the 12/12-12/16 range.
  12. ORH_wxman
    They are fairly solid but he needs to reduce the frequency by like 50% or so. Sometimes the posts come too bunched together and it makes it look like he’s trying too hard.
  13. ORH_wxman
    I better have my average of 7.7 inches of snow by 12/10 or I may have to cancel winter.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Euro is teeing up December 8th too now...looks like something brewing this run behind the 12/6 system (which is actually a decent front ender for NNE).
  15. ORH_wxman
    That high starts off near Quebec City and then slowly slides east....that would be really cold probably all the way into SNE even....GGEM and GFS aren't really buying that high location, but if the Ukie is more correct, then you'd see that system likely trend colder.
  16. ORH_wxman
    I just was looking at these again....check out the "Good La Nina" Decembers.....a lot of them had crappy totals through 12/10 and then all hell broke loose later in the month: 1970, 1975, 2000 (not on there but was paltry through 12/10), 2007, 2008, 2010....and both 2005 and 2017 had big events on 12/9 with not much before that....which may still happen this year.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Dec 8th emerges as a new threat this cycle.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Agreed.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Anafront for sure...IVTs happen every winter pretty much whereas anafront is prob more like 1 every couple or 3 years.
  20. ORH_wxman
    You would think the fast flow would increase smaller events and decrease larger events, but that has not been the case.
  21. ORH_wxman
    There's def a chance it comes back....it's really fast flow and models will struggle with it. There's actually quite a bit of spread on the ensembles over the Saturday deal. The trend last night was definitely to shear it out more, but it could easily reverse on the next run.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Yeah, we can definitely say for sure that all threats have been identified already prior to 12/10 and we know the outcome of them.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Just one season....like 2011-2012....some of these millennials need to experience a 4-5 year stretch like we did in the late 1980s/early 1990s. That'll bring appreciation back for 2-4" snow events.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Correct. The warmth has been heavily skewed toward the minimum temps as well which we would expect....also doesn't affect snowfall that much because we aren't radiating during snowstorms. We are using the true profile of the atmosphere and not just the lowest couple hundred feet.
  25. ORH_wxman
    You realize we have 10 days until 12/10, right?
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