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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    People are always impatient at the beginning. 2010 was one of the worst too....I remember the epic meltdowns that December.
  2. ORH_wxman
    1970, 1975, 2007, 2008, 2010.....keep in mind this is for ORH too, the coast had even less on 12/10
  3. ORH_wxman
    Still a decent disconnect between GEFS and EPS for mid-month....GEFS are definitely more favorable for winter wx than EPS which look mild/ugly for several days in the 12/12-12/16 range.
  4. ORH_wxman
    They are fairly solid but he needs to reduce the frequency by like 50% or so. Sometimes the posts come too bunched together and it makes it look like he’s trying too hard.
  5. ORH_wxman
    I better have my average of 7.7 inches of snow by 12/10 or I may have to cancel winter.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Euro is teeing up December 8th too now...looks like something brewing this run behind the 12/6 system (which is actually a decent front ender for NNE).
  7. ORH_wxman
    That high starts off near Quebec City and then slowly slides east....that would be really cold probably all the way into SNE even....GGEM and GFS aren't really buying that high location, but if the Ukie is more correct, then you'd see that system likely trend colder.
  8. ORH_wxman
    I just was looking at these again....check out the "Good La Nina" Decembers.....a lot of them had crappy totals through 12/10 and then all hell broke loose later in the month: 1970, 1975, 2000 (not on there but was paltry through 12/10), 2007, 2008, 2010....and both 2005 and 2017 had big events on 12/9 with not much before that....which may still happen this year.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Dec 8th emerges as a new threat this cycle.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Agreed.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Anafront for sure...IVTs happen every winter pretty much whereas anafront is prob more like 1 every couple or 3 years.
  12. ORH_wxman
    You would think the fast flow would increase smaller events and decrease larger events, but that has not been the case.
  13. ORH_wxman
    There's def a chance it comes back....it's really fast flow and models will struggle with it. There's actually quite a bit of spread on the ensembles over the Saturday deal. The trend last night was definitely to shear it out more, but it could easily reverse on the next run.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Yeah, we can definitely say for sure that all threats have been identified already prior to 12/10 and we know the outcome of them.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Just one season....like 2011-2012....some of these millennials need to experience a 4-5 year stretch like we did in the late 1980s/early 1990s. That'll bring appreciation back for 2-4" snow events.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Correct. The warmth has been heavily skewed toward the minimum temps as well which we would expect....also doesn't affect snowfall that much because we aren't radiating during snowstorms. We are using the true profile of the atmosphere and not just the lowest couple hundred feet.
  17. ORH_wxman
    You realize we have 10 days until 12/10, right?
  18. ORH_wxman
    Not a bad guess....here is 1970-1989 and 2001-2020 for ORH snowfall through 12/10
  19. ORH_wxman
    Great storms early that month, but the second half of that month was dogshit. Nice cutter right before Xmas too to wipe out any leftover snow.
  20. ORH_wxman
    I'm also not totally convinced how much CC plays a role on these numbers versus just natural variability...you can clearly see there is decade-by-decade noise there. The increase in frequency in 12"+ events is *solely* driven by the 2010s increase. If you look at it from the 1950s-2000s, it is flat. My guess is CC contributes a little bit to the absolute monsters due to increased water vapor, but I think we often overstate the attribution.
  21. ORH_wxman
    I actually ran these numbers a year or two ago and for ORH at least, only "small" events are down....middling events are actually up since the mid-20th century. Here is is in graph form:
  22. ORH_wxman
    What do you think the average snowfall was by 12/10 in ORH in the 1970s/1980s when you were growing up? Just want to see if your memory matches the empirical data.
  23. ORH_wxman
    That was exceptional there. I think the jackpot was near a foot or maybe even a little more and a large area in CT got 6-10”. We didn’t get much this way though which is why I excluded it. I think we had about 2-3”.
  24. ORH_wxman
    That one was incredible down there...some spots had over a foot in 3 hours. I think even the E Wareham coop had just shy of a foot but the jackpot was just west of them.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Actually 2/8/16 may have been one that dropped 4”+ now that I think about it. But that was still over 5 years ago.
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