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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    I’m giving this another 24-36 hours to see how much north it jumps. Once inside of 72 hours we should narrow the goalposts quite a bit but this is typically the time range when we see some of these things start to trend pretty hard. We didn’t see it much at 12z today.
  2. ORH_wxman
    YEah it does look a bit better than 00z. I was expecting a bit more of a jump but there’s an awful lot of time still considering there isn’t any blocking going on.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Euro is still a nice little snow event but surprised it wasn’t more beefed up. I still think it’s going to come north at some point. Hard to remember sometimes this is over 100 hours out still.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Man the euro is flat as a pancake next week.
  5. ORH_wxman
    That entire sounding is below freezing.
  6. ORH_wxman
    It’s not a ZR sounding over this way really maybe until the end. Maybe a little further southwest its more. It’s mostly heavy snow to some sleet maybe ending as FZDZ
  7. ORH_wxman
    Maybe his tropical microclimate only got down to 35.
  8. ORH_wxman
    That would be actually be a really good solution for SNE. I’m still very leery about this charging north in the next 2-4 cycles once inside 96 hours. Its possible it stays more weak/flat, but I’m of the mind that ptype issues are a larger concern than a whiff.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Fast flow with no blocking is hard to get double digit totals. It can happen but it’s thread the needle. Advisory to low end warning much easier to obtain in fast flow.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Nobody should be expecting a foot from this thing. Everything would have to go perfect.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Yep it’s going to come back north. Even the crushed solutions show how much WAA is still happening with not very amplified energy.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Helped us last year in February.
  13. ORH_wxman
    A typical banana high classic for locking in cold to the coastline is an arc from N of Maine to the Great Lakes region.....not from N Maine to the Atlantic....the latter configuration will still lock in the CAD over the interior, but it will definitely set up a CF somewhere near or west of 128/95 and allow marine air to infiltrate a chunk of the CP.
  14. ORH_wxman
  15. ORH_wxman
    The pattern in clown range is totally different than 12 hours ago. Popping a temporary EPO ridge and flooding the CONUS with arctic air.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Even more comical is the warmup between 12z Thu and 18z Thu...despite winds going almost due north on a trajectory from dendrite's fanny to ORH....it must think the diurnal heating over interior New England has the same enery per sq meter as Mercury or Venus.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that ain't happening with that sfc low track.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that banana needs to be rotated counter clockwise about 90 degrees.
  19. ORH_wxman
    I love how embedded the N trend is in everyone's head for these events.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Unless the high position drastically changes (which is still possible), the sfc will almost undoubtedly trend colder based on where it is N of CAR. Model bias 101....eroding the sfc cold too fast, esp when a stout arctic high straps its fanny into a row boat in the St LAwrence seaway near Quebec City.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Too late...he's already sucked in.
  22. ORH_wxman
    I'm looking at the flow around 108 hours and trying to figure out why this won't trend north. The energy on some of these flatter runs is more sheared, but all I can think of is when the energy inevitably comes in a little more organized on future runs, that downstream ridging is going to amp right up. There's no blocking to stop it or slow it down. The progressive nature of the flow is really the limiting factor.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Sfc is too warm on the GFS which will definitely screw up the NARCAN maps. Sell the sfc warmth W of 128 with the high just N of CAR.
  24. ORH_wxman
    I do like seeing some southerly solutions. This thing is prob gonna trend north with that pig SE ridge so we're prob gonna need some wiggle room.
  25. ORH_wxman
    I'd take the GFS even....it's like 3-4" here. Obviously I'd like more, but I wouldn't complain with an advisory snowfall with some ZR mixed in there.
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