Jump to content

ORH_wxman

Moderator Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    91,773

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    I don’t know if it’s more likely…it’s close enough for me not to be the arbiter of which one stays and which one goes. There’s definitely a western limit to this and BUF may be near that limit. There’s more room on the eastern side than on the western side…the skew won’t be a normal/Gaussian distribution.
  2. ORH_wxman
    We’d have to throw out the ones over BUF too if we did that.
  3. ORH_wxman
    It’s not super far from being a 12/16/07 type coastal. If you recall, that was originally supposed to track into BUF but the high got better and eventually we got a triple point over SE MA…and of course the big snow thump.
  4. ORH_wxman
    One reason to remain somewhat optimistic for more snow is that the antecedent airmass is strong, so if that high holds on just a shade longer, you prob get disproportional return on the snowfall in the positive direction. You can even see it on the some of the ensemble members. Some of the ones that hold onto the high just a smidge more thump 8-12" in a pretty large area over SNE.
  5. ORH_wxman
    I love how the 3km NAM tracks the storm almost right over the BM but it doesn't get precip much past PYM.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Wind gusts?
  7. ORH_wxman
    Trough is a little broader than 12z though....so it prob won't tuck that precip shield back as far west.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Trough is def hanging back west of the 12z run through 24 hours. Doesn't mean it will end up better at the surface, but that's a general trend you want if there's any hope of getting this another 50-75 miles west....you want the trough to not be as progressive.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Yeah well the reasons are obvious we don't want people to compare anything to 2015. They will just think it means we're gonna get tons of snow again like that year. But the pattern is remarkably similar going into late January this year. Hopefully we can at least get a pretty snowy period....we don;t expect 90-100 inches in 3 weeks, but even a third of that would be pretty awesome.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Whats funny is the huge cutter in Jan 2015 that caused many to throw in the towel happened on 1/18...a day after this storm will happen...and an almost identical pattern was being shown for the final 2 weeks of that month that the EPS are now showing.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Scooter, you are required to click the link above
  12. ORH_wxman
    https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/3e7b64fd-46bb-4cbb-bcff-b1e62839733f
  13. ORH_wxman
  14. ORH_wxman
    I mean, it wouldn't take much more to do that...it goes from ABE to ALB. The initial confluence did seem to make the front end a little colder this run though...so if that is a trend that we can keep up, then we might be able to get a triple point low further east in later runs.
  15. ORH_wxman
    The 1980s would be 1-3" washed away completely. I'm hoping this can morph into a 8-10" front ender that gets compacted down to like 5-6" and then FROPA. But these westward trends may not be done yet.
  16. ORH_wxman
    That would probably be a hellacious thump for several hours though.
  17. ORH_wxman
    If this system was progressive at all, we'd prob be in pretty good shape, but it just stops gaining longitude.
  18. ORH_wxman
    This is gonna cut into NY State....
  19. ORH_wxman
    Shotwave #3 looks to be digging more this run too....which will send our southern shortwave straight north...so I bet this run ends up west of 00z.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that shortwave down south seems to just be able to slow down if it needs to and wait for the confluence to lift out. This will probably still be a pretty far west run....but I'm hoping it's a little east of 00z....any eastward ticks will help.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Friday's system is def hanging back on this euro run....we'll see how much that affects the Monday storm.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Doubt it comes much more west...there isn't much room in the flow to shift that west.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Euro might even get an inch or two back here.
  24. ORH_wxman
    The 12z GEFS i have show a lot of interior lows.
  25. ORH_wxman
    I think the '87 storm was a huge bust too...winter storm warnings out for most of BOS area and the thing decides to just squeeze east but destroy the Cape in an epic manner. The graidnet must have been epic....CHH 28", HYA 16", East Wareham 10"....then Kingston coop had like 3"....lol
×
×
  • Create New...