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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Seems like a solid map. I doubt I would change much.
  2. ORH_wxman
    3km NAM is pretty cold on the front end this run. Tries to give several inches here.
  3. ORH_wxman
    EPS only goes out to 144 at 06z
  4. ORH_wxman
    00z EPS
  5. ORH_wxman
    I’m not. We’d need a significant bump SE to not be in the 40s for hours.
  6. ORH_wxman
    I won’t be shocked if there’s still a hideous glacier intact over Kevin’s lawn on Monday but I’m not sure what the debate is worth anyway…I don’t think it would be more than 2 or 3 inches anyway. But 6-8 hours in the 40s with rain will be tough to fight off. Usually you want like an inch-plus of water in the pack to fight that type of assault off.
  7. ORH_wxman
    EPS has some interest in the system. Obviously far out but a definite signal there
  8. ORH_wxman
    None of these trends matter for SNE except maybe N ORH county and Berkshires. We need something more substantial than minor ticks.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Ineedsnow chose that one. But he called it by its TWC name Nemo.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the Euro is the only model that still basically has a snow sounding at ORH (and just north of them) by 12z Monday. Tossed.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Lol, trying to give ORH 8-10” this run. Not buying it. Euro is going to fold like a cheap suit to the NAM I bet.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Dec 1992 for ORH. Prob Feb 1978 for Holliston but Dec ‘92 was sneaky good here too. So was April ‘97.
  13. ORH_wxman
    I dont think anyone here except maybe one or two of the most star-eyed weenies thinks 2015 is happening this year. There are plenty of other examples though of non-El Nino late blooming winters like 2012-2013, 2000-2001, 1955-56, 1966-67, etc.
  14. ORH_wxman
    This is a weather forum. People are going to discuss a large storm that has some impact on the region even if it’s not a blizzard in their backyard.
  15. ORH_wxman
    That’s why having empirical data archived is really nice. You can debunk any false stories of “winters of yore” pretty easily if they don’t pass the smell test. We just check the data and see what they were like.
  16. ORH_wxman
    I don’t think anyone here in this forum has seriously entertained a classic coastal look for a couple cycles now.
  17. ORH_wxman
    If there’s one aspect of the NAM that makes me a little hesitant to buy the solution is that 850 is a lot warmer than other levels. Usually the NAM hammers that 725-800 layer but it’s not doing that. It has this weird very thin torch layer around 850.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Once the NAM sniffed out that warm layer aloft, you knew it was time to take ‘em down on the front end snow totals. It’s rarely wrong on that part. All the globals will keep slowly ticking toward it….kicking and screaming if need be but they will submit.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Canadian nailed the BGM track but any big snows here it will fail miserably.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Yeah even the interior will touch low 40s I think except once you get deep interior like back toward hippy and the Berkshires.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Under the the winds here. Coastline should rip though.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Yeah shows how shallow the arctic airmass is. If it was a deeper airmass then MWN would be pimping -30s.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Before I knew snow climo I used to always think they got way more than ORH did. I didn’t start figuring it out until maybe when I was about 13 or 14. I had thought the same thing for Springfield too but the December 1992 and March 1993 storms both made me figure it out…but back then prior to internet, I hadnt realized Albany got screwed in Dec 1992. I didn’t read about it until a few years later.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Overall jackpot will be out in western/northwestern NY state and adjacent Canada…but you very well may be the New England jackpot. That area is great on easterly flow.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Agreed. I hadn’t read this post yet but when I responded to hippy i mentioned the sfc warmth is overdone on some of these runs. I think at minimum a triple point low goes over SE MA or close to there (maybe BOS?). I think the midlevels are cooked though based on the upper air evolution.
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