ORH_wxman

Yeah I'd prob barely track it if it wasn't Xmas Eve...and this does have a little bit of upside, because unlike the systems after it, it's not getting shredded to total crap. The shortwave maintains a little bit of integrity. So yeah while C-1" is probably the most common result....there's a legit shot at 2-3" too.

I mean, people on here track dewpoints all summer and others track 50F temps in winter....2" of snow on Xmas eve sounds like the World Series in comparison. Nobody is forcing anyone else to track these systems.

Yeah further west would have actually been a little better...like over Hudson Bay and even into central Canada, but that is hard to do because it already becomes very west-based by Xmas....something further west is usually from a folded-over PNA ridge or something and not an NAO block.

Yeah we are all risking a lot of valuables hoping for an inch or two on Xmas Eve. Hopefully I have enough leftover for presents for the kiddies.

Euro tries to get the 27th system into here before it gets shredded.

Dry.

It was almost identical to 06z....still on the dry side of guidance but prob widespread 0.5-1" amounts.

No, most guidance doesn't have much of anything except the Ukie. Maybe a little ZR or light snow early AM?

Ukie is also decent for 12/24....prob 1-3" over most of SNE. A little on the juicy side but not that out of step with 12z models so far. Where it is out of step is 12/25....it has solid advisory snows for a good chunk of CT on Xmas morning...like a solid 2-4". Lighter amounts into MA/S NH/S VT.

No ZR in PWM? Airport is reporting 31F and FZRA....after 29F last hour.

GGEM is decent for 12/24...looks like a nice stripe of 1-2" with maybe 3" lollis. Then it mostly squashes 12/25-12/26...but tries to get 12/27 into parts of the region with a bit of snow. Then it tries to get another system in here 12/28 with ZR/IP. This train of shortwaves starting Xmas is a total mess on guidance. Chevy Chase advent calendar.

Prob see some 2" amounts with 0,15" LE in spots on that run. Ratios should be better than 10 to 1...esp away from immediate south coast where it's really cold.

12k is prob too juiced, but sometimes these do produce if they can tap a little bit of low level atlantic moisture. RGEM is more subdued as well ,but not as shredded as 3k NAM....RGEM looks like mostly an inch or so with maybe a spot 2" amount. Also has the heaviest down in CT while NAM is further north.

Yes.

Yeah it's definitely slow to shut off over your area out east. Getting the sfc low going helps tuck in that colder sfc air....never makes it above freezing in many spots.

Little inflow there gets going....maybe we can have a sneaky little critter. Would be fun to get an over achiever finally.

NAM looking juicy.

Agreed....if you have under an inch, it may not survive...esp in lower elevation in the western zones where precip finishes pretty early....but further east, the clouds will be slower to depart and I think anyone who grabs close to 1.5-2" isn't losing it on 3 hours of temps in the upper 30s with a Christmas Eve sun angle. Might fall off the bushes or something, but you aren't melting a couple tenths of frozen QPF in a couple hours of low-dewpoint 35-40 temps with the weakest sun angle of the year. The Euro doesn't even clear out eastern zones until 18-19z...sun is starting to set by 19z....lol. Hopefully it trends a little juicier in the final 24 hours. Could still end up as a dusting.

Seems like most guidance is dropping an inch or two on Xmas Eve for a good chunk of SNE. NAM is furthest north while Euro looks furthest south. Guess we’ll see if there’s any trends today on that. The 25th looks weak on most guidance. Beyond that is still a mess with huge differences.

Yes. I don’t have a ton of experience and I’m a novice when it comes to snowshoe equipment knowledge but the pair I have allows me to walk in 2 feet and sink maybe only 6” or so instead of knee or thigh deep. I don’t have very long snowshoes though so I’m sure a longer pair would limit the sinking a bit more. Utah powder is blower sh*t though…so I’d expect to sink more in that type of snow than a higher water content New England snow. So anything that allows you to float higher is gonna be worth it out there.

GFS does have snow both days. 24th actually looks like a nice little 1-3” fluffer on that run. 25th is kind of crunched so eastern areas don’t really snow much that day but they play catch-up on the 26th.

That was a bust too. Original forecast was for like 1-3/2-4 the 48 hours leading into it. They upped it that morning (like 4 hours before start time) to like 3-6” but it ended up being widespread 6-9”.

@CoastalWxremember this storm? I was just thinking of this one because the pattern kind of reminded me of it.....if oneof these shortwaves works out, it might look like this....you have this zonal -PNA flow running into a NAO block. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1995/us1214.php

We're bumping this post when you start making optimistic posts at 00z about that system.

If we can keep that Xmas eve shortwave just barely robust enough, the midlevel profile is pretty nice for snow growth....you have like -12C temps at 700mb and the SGZ is also pretty deep.