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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Euro is basically splitting the 50mb PV....will be interesting to see if it actually splits or just stays really elongated....it doesn't really matter in the medium range....being stretched like that is going to be exceptionally favorable for blocking....but longer term it will matter on the longevity....if it splits apart, it will take longer to re-consolidate.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Yeah tickled south some...even the mean snow algorithm has N ORH county into the 2" range now. Not that I put much stock into snow algorithms, but having that increase a bit shows the colder solutions becoming a little more numerous.
  3. ORH_wxman
    I had 0.1" in Dec 2018, but we had two events in November 2018 including a warning criteria event (that gave us a white T-day)
  4. ORH_wxman
    2015-2016 was the last winter where I didn't get at least an advisory level snowfall prior to New Years...you'd have to go back to 2006-2007 for the next one. So it obviously happens, but it's fairly rare. Especially inland. Right on the coast it's a bit more common. Both of those years I mentioned were El Ninos too. You'd have to go back to 1999-2000 to find one in a neutral or La Nina.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Check out the difference in the Xmas Eve shortwave on Euro vs GFS....this is only an 84 hour prog. Euro on top and GFS below
  6. ORH_wxman
    24th could give a couple inches if the energy ejected is a little stronger ala GFS (lesser extent the GGEM)....Euro and Ukie are pretty weak with it...not a good kink in the isoheights. The stronger the shortwave on the 24th, the colder Xmas will be too because it lowers the heights behind it a bit.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Airmass is decent for 12/24....but questionable for 12/25. IF 12/24 comes in south, that also helps for 12/25. There's several moving parts...12/22 affects these too. Euro run is south of 00z for 12/25 but still too far north for most of SNE.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Def gonna be south of 00z for Xmas though as Scooter said...
  9. ORH_wxman
    Euro is weak sauce and north with the Xmas eve shortwave...maybe a dusting for some folks in NNE.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Not gonna happen...airmass is trash anyway....when I-95 in Maine is flirting with the R/S line, it's garbage.
  11. ORH_wxman
    I think down here it's really two...not seeing how we get much, if any, snow from 12/22 in SNE...maybe N ORH county could. It's really going to come down to 12/24 or 12/25.
  12. ORH_wxman
    The further west solutions on 12/22 seem to have further south solutions on 12/25...while the further east 12/22 solutions are more north/warm for 12/25 due to the 12/22 system not phasing as much and hence, the block and 50/50 low is a little weaker.
  13. ORH_wxman
    There's going to be a lot of model volatility I think over the next 24-36 hours because some of the key features for 12/24 and 12/25 aren't onshore yet...and 12/25 is especially poor because satellite-derived data gets more unreliable in the arctic with the very low tropopause.
  14. ORH_wxman
    GGEM has the Xmas eve snow too but it's a little further north in MA/S NH and a little drier than the GFS. CT gets a nice little hit Xmas morning on the GGEM.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Yeah probably...depends on the low track but on the GFS it would. Prob highs in the low to mid 30s.
  16. ORH_wxman
    1-2" on Xmas eve if GFS is right...hopefully that comes through.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Yeah agreed...i don;t love the deep western trouhg, but even years like 1970 had a REALLY deep -PNA and it still worked. So much of it is nuance though. At least it's way better than a one eyed pig over AK.
  18. ORH_wxman
    My guess is mid-week still mostly misses east even though the NAM got precip in here. If that phase had happened much further south, then we would've developed a CCB sooner and you prob would get good interior snows from that track....but when the thing is just trying to phase almost as it reaches you, that's one of the warmest sequences in the storm evolution.
  19. ORH_wxman
    -PNA/-NAO can be a high stakes pattern....you can get strong gradients. We talk about great stretches like December 1970, but you go south a bit and there was almost nothing...but on the north side of the mean boundary, it was prolific snows. The NAO migrating west makes me think that over time, the gradients will be pressing south...it starts out kind of north, and then sinks. Going deeper into climo winter will also help as well.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Or press it south 50-100 miles and it's pretty fun the whole time...some of the other guidance has that.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Having a primary low up in lake huron is pretty useless.
  22. ORH_wxman
    I've said it before and I'll say it again....many of our most prolific stretches have come during -PNA/-NAO patterns.
  23. ORH_wxman
    There’s a leading shortwave we need to watch for 12/24...could bring a round of light snow...then the main wave on 12/25. Both systems are kind of all over the place on model guidance...euro doesn’t really have much on 12/24 and then looks pretty torchy for 12/25...meanwhile other guidance has both distinct waves and is much colder.
  24. ORH_wxman
    You coastal guys are due for a few more disaster systems. We’ll chew on 12/26/12 and 12/29/12 while you wait for the PNA to get better.
  25. ORH_wxman
    We actually saw the NAO kind of merge with higher heights in the east in December 2012 for a time.
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