ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yes, you can get on board with that southern wave and ditch the moose farts for this one. This one can snow decently for most of the forum. They'll be plenty of other chances for moose flatulence.
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12z Ukie trying on 1/26 too...nuisance event in the end, but not far off from a GGEM solution.
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Yep....I'm already resigned to having a below normal snowfall winter, so I'd take the HECS and run if offered right now. I'm aware that there is still the chance we get lucky and rip off a great 3-4 weeks somewhere in there, but I wouldn't trade a big storm for that longshot chance.....not that any of have the choice anyway, lol....but that is where my mindset is at. I'm shooting for the big bucks at this point, not the small game.
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Yeah it makes the southern low more dominant and it's able to get a decent WCB going plus some ML fronto on the backside
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Ray and I would prob trade the rest of the winter to get this one to verify
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LOL....it tries to pull a December '92 with the easterly deep layer flow and just annihilate eastern SNE with QPF.
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Yeah the northern stream only draws it due north when the low goes through BGM....when we need it, it will act as a kicker. That's what happens in a White Snake winter like this year.
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This could actually end up a comical solution for us too....because the ULL rots so long down south, the kicker s/w actually catches up to it and might draw it northward.
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Nice output this run for the south....I love the 36" spot over Augusta GA....Butler Cabin roof collapser at the Masters?
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You'd get hit harder than a 2-4" moose fart if that northern stream system wasn't mucking it up. It's not just an SNE thing.
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It's got no choice...it has to with that ridge folding over it. Hopefully on future runs it lessens that feature and then we'd be in prime position.
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Lets see if we can give Atlanta a CCB this run....that's a pretty monstrous ULL down south on the 12z GFS. Not gonna hit us though this run with a ridge folding over like that.
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26th looks like a nuisance event....just can't keep the northern low from mucking up a great southern stream track.
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I wonder if someone can get 6"+ down there....the OES actually may pick up even more as we work through tomorrow morning as that offshore coastal increases the flow and LL convergence.
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Duxbury/Kingston getting smoked
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We absolutely cannot buy a classic juiced SWFE recently....either the antecedent airmass is crap or even when it's decent, something goes wrong like the shortwave is sheared and tracks through Ottawa or something. At some point that is going to change. Hopefully it's this winter.
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00z EPS has a few decent members west...several more than 12z had
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It’s basically a Feb 94 pattern. Monster AK/Bering ridge with western trough but Se ridge is crushed enough by the AK ridging that we are cold.
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@CoastalWx
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Southern stream actually takes a perfect track for us on the 18z gfs but it decides to screw us by having the northern stream lead a weak low over us and rob the baroclinic zone and antecedent airmass. That is perfectly on par for this winter though…ruin a good large scale setup because of some bizarre nuance.
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Logan is at 12 or 13 inches now? Climo from here on out is prob like 28-30”. So they need less than half that to reach 25”. I’ll go out on a limb and predict a once every 4 or 5 decade type March probably won’t happen. Ain’t happening. That would be way too easy. You know the CFS will probably be more correct about February and we’ll get tortured to death instead of just pulling the plug.
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Weekly mean pattern won't tell us enough detail to determine whether we get 70....given how rare 70 is (despite doing it twice recently in 2017 and 2018), it probably wouldn't be that type of warmth. Esp given the ridging still present over the Bering. You'd need an obscene western trough which is always possible, but you wouldn't predict that far out.
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This is an all out torch for everyone in the east....but yeah, at 1500 feet in the whites you can still do ok as long as the pattern is active....which it probably would be given there is still PAC ridging into the Bering and then sending the PJ down into the west coast. But who knows....the weeklies aren't very useful beyond week 2/3...they aren't much better than the CFS in that range, and the CFS has a much colder pattern:
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I’m sure it will flip post-equinox when it becomes useless. All joking aside, weeklies have been pretty insistent on February being done after the first week, so we’ll see if they are actually right this time. If we’re not gonna cash in between now and 1/30, I’m throwing in the towel on salvaging a normal winter…but of course I’ll still be rooting for a huge storm at some point. I’d make a deal with the devil and punt all of February if we could get a monster in March.
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What an epic torch on the weeklies for February. We technically don’t have a February thread yet but that would basically end winter after the first few days of the month.
