ORH_wxman

That’s definitely a possibility but it doesn’t happen very often. You usually need a big phasing event.

He posted a delta map. Not anomaly map. It was an intentionally deceptive post to generate a response.

Yes. There was a massive cutter Xmas Eve.

NWS Taunton had a snow depth of 8 inches on Xmas. Depth of 7 inches on 12/26. 4 inches on 12/27...then wiped out by 12/28. I double checked further south too at east wareham coop and they had very similar numbers.

There’s no way it was wiped clean Xmas morning there. The torch storm didn’t happen until the 27th.

Euro actually has some decent front end snows for outside 128 predawn Xmas morning.

Yeah the Canadian would work. That storm is likely to get squashed south of the block, the question is exactly how far south and that makes all the difference.

I dunno. Pre-Xmas was always precarious even if still possible. It’s not like guidance is pushing back the blocking. If anything, guidance has improved since a week ago....remember when the SE ridge was poking into SNE on all the longer range guidance about a week ago? You don’t see that now.

Yeah he was talking about the temp drift which we mentioned a couple pages back. I was commenting how ORH was 33F but all the mesonets were 31F...the ice sensor plus the pictures from here basically prove that the temp sensor is junk right now.

Yeah it wasn’t 32-33F that whole time.

Up on winter hill today and everything is iced over. Even 100-200 feet lower had nothing.

That storm was brutal for me. We had about 7” of sand where I was in ORH but my current location just to the east had about 16”. That mesoband you see in the last radar image posted by 4 seasons just rotted and I was smoking exhaust to the west. I did get in on it initially which literally dropped like 3” of snow in 90 minutes but then it slid east quickly and rotted. That’s why my current place had so much more. I guess I can’t complain too much though...the day after the storm I had to drive to Springfield MA and they had almost nothing...just a dusting. They basically got shutout. The snow dropped off really quickly about 10-20 miles west of ORH.

Could be very similar actually. But at least this one has a more realistic chance of trending south and colder because you have an active retrograde of the NAO block occurring.

Yeah best cold is east. Though there is definitely something up with ORH temps...running warm for a while now. There’s about a 0% chance they are actually 33F

Xmas is still somewhat interesting. Wish we had a stronger push of cold but at least there NAO block is actively retrograding while that system approaches so there’s room for models to correct better on that one unlike the previous system. Not holding out a lot of hope but not tossing yet. And while no OP model shows this right now, I noticed that several ensemble members on both EPS and GEFS eject some energy for 12/24 so a few of them had something for that day instead. The flip side of the equation is that if the NAO block doesn’t press down as much, we could still have flamingos and parrots for Xmas.

Pants tent pattern on both EPS/GEfS post-Xmas.

There’s at least a pretty strong established NAO block though. So I have a little more hope for that one to end up colder/south than this one did. We could smell the north trend on the 12/18 system coming from days away. Limiting factor is we don’t have an exceptional antecedent airmass but it’s better than this past system. One thing to root for is that northern stream piece of energy that we were hoping would phase for the 12/22 system...root for that to be as far south as possible even though the 12/22 system is toast. By doing that, it will shove the arctic cold further south and set the stage for something interesting on Xmas.

Your area may be the jack. Powderfreak commented on the BL flow helping out there being out of the east.

Yeah dual pol shows the line lifting just north of ASH now. You prob have sleet outside though if the line is that close.

They’ll be parties for hosting And chicken legs for roasting And caroling out in the snow

Hopefully you can grab a couple. That should last until Xmas since it’s dense. You crack an inch yet?

Yep. Don’t get me wrong...I’d love to even get 2-3” so the peeps up north are lucky in my book. But this was pretty hideous.

Sheared vortmax through Ottawa...I should’ve been even more pessimistic but I got too wrapped up in the models 2 days ago when they were trending colder and looked like a decent shot of lift on the front end. If that was tracking through PA or even souther tier of NY and not a sheared mess, that would have been a different ballgame. This kind of reminds me of that MLK weekend event in January 2020....we had a much better antecedent airmass so we stayed all snow but the upper energy was a sheared disaster displaces NW so it was like 3-5” of sand and garbage rates with a shredded radar.

ALB to rt 2 in MA corridor basically got shutout in this event. Worse than I thought even in the bad scenarios...garbage system. Aesthetically this even looks putrid too on radar. What an ugly system.

Agreed. We need that to dig more in order to have any chance of hooking that southern stream northward.