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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Yeah you shift everything eastward a little bit and you will get more storm amplification…but even just something nuanced like a little piece or spoke of the 50/50 PV lobe retrograding and phasing can cause a storm to pop. Something like that won’t been seen on guidance though until way closer.
  2. ORH_wxman
    The trough out west has never disappeared on any guidance except maybe clown range on the weeklies a few c HC les ago. It just shifted east slightly….the theme will remain -PNA…maybe we get it closer to neutral deeper in January of the weeklies are right but don’t expect 1977 and 2015 ridges out there.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Check back in after New Years then.
  4. ORH_wxman
    It's amazing how many shortwaves are running into this block between new and New Years...like there could literally be 5 or 6 different chances in a 10 day period.
  5. ORH_wxman
    You might not get out until after New Years in this pattern.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Xmas eve might actually be pretty fluffy if we can even wring out like 0.05-0.10....Xmas day still seems like it could be a bit heavier than shown there, but admittedly a total whiff wouldn't surprise me either. The model guidance has been struggling badly with the NAO block and the PNA firehose out west.
  7. ORH_wxman
    @tamarack and @MaineJayhawk I think both have frequently snowshoed....they should be able to help. Maybe one of our VT peeps I might be forgetting.
  8. ORH_wxman
    PRetty weak sauce...but at least flakes on both Xmas and Xmas eve might be enough to grab an inch or two.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Yes....I know. I think there are some maps out there that try to estimate accretion, but even those are "Wrong" because they focus on flat....when radial is what causes all the damage.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Good ol' Ukie....gives like a solid 2"...maybe 3" in spots for Xmas eve. "2nd best model"
  11. ORH_wxman
    We have models bringing rain into CNE for Xmas and then some that crunch it southwest and give Greenwich CT snow while Ray is smoking cirrus. Basically a clown show on guidance....but we kind of knew this was coming. I posted that map yesterday that showed all those ridiculous shortwaves offshore.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Yes. They are always overdone. In addition, radial ice is what we care about...so even if you actually do get flat surface ice to accrete half an inch, it will be more like 2 tenths radial.
  13. ORH_wxman
    GGEM crunches 12/25 south....does get some light snow into CT and W MA.....it has Xmas eve but pretty weak....maybe an inch or so in some spots amidst widespread coatings.
  14. ORH_wxman
    There;s another one for 12/28-29 too.
  15. ORH_wxman
    I'm really surprised it didn't show 12-18" again on a 5 day prog.
  16. ORH_wxman
    This is actually kind of fun looking at each run....I honestly have no idea how they will go. That's how volatile the pattern is right now. I feel like one these will work out....just don't know which one.
  17. ORH_wxman
    GFS still liking that little nuke for the 26th.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Yeah he overplayed that one badly. Comes off as a really desperate troll attempt...didn't flow naturally at all. I mean, at least wait for a real model...maybe the GFS.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Models are going to be all over the place until more of this trainwreck out west is resolved. But at least there are several interesting shortwaves to track.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Guidance is all over the place with this weekend. Though for Xmas day itself we’ve seen some narrowing. Even euro gets some measurable snow into SNE now for Xmas.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Yeah ORH hasn’t reported snow depth since the 1994-1995 winter. By my records, ORH has had a white Xmas in the following years post-1950: 1951, 1952, 1954, 1956, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1978, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1985, 1989, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2017, 2019 So that’s 42 out of 70 or 60%.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Oh Canada…nice little Xmas Eve burst and then Xmas Day again on the GGEM…not as prolific as the ICON but it’s several inches for a good chunk of SNE.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Look at the H5 map on Xmas Eve and Xmas. That is ridiculous looking. There’s like 6 clusters of energy…more like buckshot. Even that solution though gives a bit of front ender snow for Xmas…looks best west and it kind of fizzles a little bit as it heads east.
  24. ORH_wxman
    GFS actually crunches Xmas Eve south a bit. South of pike special.
  25. ORH_wxman
    We’re holding you to that.
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