ORH_wxman

Yeah dual pol shows the line lifting just north of ASH now. You prob have sleet outside though if the line is that close.

They’ll be parties for hosting And chicken legs for roasting And caroling out in the snow

Hopefully you can grab a couple. That should last until Xmas since it’s dense. You crack an inch yet?

Yep. Don’t get me wrong...I’d love to even get 2-3” so the peeps up north are lucky in my book. But this was pretty hideous.

Sheared vortmax through Ottawa...I should’ve been even more pessimistic but I got too wrapped up in the models 2 days ago when they were trending colder and looked like a decent shot of lift on the front end. If that was tracking through PA or even souther tier of NY and not a sheared mess, that would have been a different ballgame. This kind of reminds me of that MLK weekend event in January 2020....we had a much better antecedent airmass so we stayed all snow but the upper energy was a sheared disaster displaces NW so it was like 3-5” of sand and garbage rates with a shredded radar.

ALB to rt 2 in MA corridor basically got shutout in this event. Worse than I thought even in the bad scenarios...garbage system. Aesthetically this even looks putrid too on radar. What an ugly system.

Agreed. We need that to dig more in order to have any chance of hooking that southern stream northward.

Coating was the final here. Mostly rain with some sleet mixed in.

I would agree. Not saying KU type system or anything, but at least something plowable. It would be hard to keep whiffing in the post-Xmas pattern.

Back to mostly sleet with a few mangled flakes.

Okay maybe spoke too soon. Back to mostly snow now.

EPS continuing to push that Aleutian ridge eastward.

Gone over to pure sleet here. Previously it was oscillating depending on intensity. Now it’s just sleet despite good echoes overhead so the snow is done here.

Yeah but both of our star WRs are out and both starting tackles and we’re facing the best pass rusher in the league...and it’s 4th and 10 not 4th and 1. Screw it, draw up a play that moves the chains.

Yeah the Euro pins a decent PV lobe this run south of the block. There is room for that to get better for sure...wouldn’t take much at all to turn that pretty good. I haven’t quite punted 12/22 yet either but I’m close. That euro run trended enough to keep me interested for another cycle...but I’ll prob punt if 00z isn’t better.

Got some fatties falling now in this latest batch of decent echoes. Def means it’s marginal aloft...we know it’s not good snow growth.

Euro trying to go Xmas morning miracle with front end thump?

We kept about a 6 to 8 inch glacier where I was. But my area in northern ORH was much better at CAD than your area so maybe that was the difference.

The 2000s were a bit better at least in ORH. We managed white Christmas in 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007, 2008, and 2009....with a near miss in 2003. Had patches leftover in that one from yet another brutal grinch storm. If you had a sheltered yard you may have managed an official white Christmas in 2003.

BOS was white in 1995 and 1997 in the 1990s. They just missed 1998. Off to the west, ORH had a white Xmas those two years in addition to 1991, 1992, and 1993. We had all of of our Jim Cantore snow in 1996 wiped out by an epic Grinch storm on Xmas Eve. That one hurt. I was sure we were a lock.

We had light sleet on and off much of the morning but it just flipped to mostly snow with these better echoes.

Yeah the NAM is still showing that IVT with moisture trapped below 800mb. Maybe some light snow or snizzle late overnight or early tomorrow. Def gonna have to watch for some black ice or a little glaze too.

Some bright banding on radar down by you. Not surprising a few mangled aggregates might be mixed in.

Too bad it’s the 84h NAM but that is kind of interesting looking for middle of next week. You can see how the northern stream is really digging and likely to at least partially phase with the southern stream. That is the type of look you’ll want to see on the useful models if that system is to have any chance.

This one is fugly. Look at this precip shield. But this is what you get when it’s a sheared vortmax going through Ottawa.