ORH_wxman

The SE ridge position in the composite is good for us...the one on the ensembles is bad for us...it's too far north. We could get away with another couple hundred miles even on the composite, but we can't have the max anomalies almost overhead. So if we can trend that western ridge a little more tame and/or find some other mechanism to push the SE ridge a little south (whether its the NAO or a more easterly EPO block), then we'd be in business.

Dec MJO 7 composite looks a lot tamer than progs....not saying the prog is wrong, but digging the trough really deep into CA doesn't seem to be on here

Or just less digging of the western trough....or a bit more of a stout -NAO....there's a few ways to get it to work.

ORH had like 10" in that event....you are prob thinking of 12/29/76 a few years earlier which gave 128-495 belt like 12-18" and ORH got 4".

Thursday looks like the best bet. I don't think any of Monday-Wednesday will be that warm....above average, but prob not 50s/60s...maybe 50s are possible in the usual spots Monday. It will depend how well we mix on Monday. Friday could be a downslope dandy too....something to watch for temp enthusiasts.

It's there Tuesday/Wednesday....this run does warm sector us Thursday though which would get us well into the 60s if we can achieve warm sector early in the day.

That sneaky high is prob going to "Ruin" the torch for most of it I think....we might be able to get Thursday or Friday pre-FROPA to get a really good day in there, but I'm starting to envision this backdoor high keeping it colder. It will still be mild compared to averages, but I was previously thinking we could make a run at all time December records and now I'm skeptical we even sniff those types of highs.

Well, the NAO did help prevent cutters....we only had one single cutter for like a 6 week period starting around New Years. Our biggest problem was we couldn't buy a storm to phase during the January pattern. The airmass was kind of stale but it was still marginally cold enough to support snow. I think ORH had a grand total of 3 days with a high temp over 40F last January despite the month being +3...that's hard to pull off. We were joking how we really needed Tip's hadley cell gradient during January....but it was nowhere to be found, lol.

It's an impressive -NAO showing up on that run....but storms can still cut in a -NAO. The NAO just gives more wiggle room, but if you have a couple shortwaves phase, you can still cut.

Yeah this is what I view it as....S NJ to all of VA...and the zone in between.

Southern NJ is def mid-atlantic....but pron not NNJ. Hilarious how all of NY State is labeled Mid-atlantic on that map....lol

My son was up at 6am and made me come outside in the snow with him.....what a weenie.

About an inch of nice fluffy snow. Looks nice out there.

Snowing pretty good here. Everything covered. About a quarter inch so far.

IVT becomes a bit more pronounced in the 9-10pm timeframe. That’s where we might see some enhancement of that lighter precip shield. You can see it pretty clearly on the modeled streamline analysis.

Yeah seeing a +20 or -20 day in the summer is much harder than in the winter. In the winter, we can have a high of 0 or 5F or a high of 65-70F. In the summer your extremes are probably 55F to 100F for most of the area for highs.

That is an amazing fire hose that hits the Sierras starting Saturday night. It lasts for like 3 days too and these aren’t high snow levels.

Some steady light snow here in the past 15-20 min. Emphasis on light. Let’s see if we can ramp up the echoes as that stuff from W MA comes in

Column gets colder as we go further into the evening, so rain should change to snow in most places where it is still raining....outer Cape and Islands might be slower though.

Lobster boats coming back with a foot of paste on the deck.

ALB radar being down really sucks....hard to see upstream convergence zones,

No that isn't what I'd forecast....I'd prob forecast 1-2" but emphasize the uncertainty associated with IVT setups. It's always possible you miss out on accumulations in these setups.

ORH will be just far enough inland to avoid the regression.

Taunton was overdue for some screwgies

I don't think that is your meaningful snow if you get any....later this evening is what you'll want to look for. This current stuff is mostly for the shore...might be some flakes inland with it, but prob little if any measurable snow. If this starts to expand and blossom well NW though as we get into the 4-5pm hour, then that would definitely be a good sign.