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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    It is still tracking the vort north of the Euro and some other guidance....the 12z run is tracking it over northern Lake Ontario. While others are more like BUF to ROC . It's not a massive difference but that 25-30 miles matters when we're talking about areas that are flirting with the sleet line.
  2. ORH_wxman
    We didn't get more snow along the pike than 06z because the QPF was pretty weak sauce this run compared to previous. QPF is under an inch for us through 21z tomorrow on the 12z run.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Def colder than 06z though...06z gave almost no snow south of HFD, now the 12z gives advisory snows down there.
  4. ORH_wxman
    12z NAM tickling colder through 21 hours. Heavy snow down in parts of S CT at 09z while the previous run was scalping them.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the CF will def be most pronounced in SE NH or S ME....but that isn't the only factor in the best snowfall...you want to overlap that with the strongest fronto banding....the fronto banding is a little stronger south and it weakens some as it goes north into S ME. So I'm picking your area to S NH to get the best of both worlds (longest exposure to good fronto banding while getting CF enhancement at the same time)
  6. ORH_wxman
    There will be 12"+ totals....this is not skimpy on QPF. Most likely spot is prob S NH/S VT and N MA near the border and maybe into far S ME where they get into quasi-stationary banding for a while while those of us to the south are dryslotted for a time.
  7. ORH_wxman
    HRRR looks a little colder than 06z through 24 hours
  8. ORH_wxman
    Almost every model has it mostly done by 18z unless you are up by Ray…then round 2 starts sinking south and filling in late afternoon.
  9. ORH_wxman
    06z euro is prob in the middle of guidance right now. NAM is still the warmest by a decent amount though the gap isn’t nearly as much as 12z yesterday when it was actually failing to give Ray warning snows.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Clearly no coordination between ALY and BOX since one office tossed the NAM and the other is buying it.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Btw, I watched him too. Amazing how much energy he still has. You can tell he still gets excited for these higher impact snow events. Lol. Hopefully he goes another couple winters before hanging them up…all time great. First ballot HOFer.
  12. ORH_wxman
    He will probably peak at the 00z NAM to make sure it comes south a little more and then update the map for the 11pm segment.
  13. ORH_wxman
    It’s because they don’t forecast for NH. They are using the GYX forecast for the NH amounts. I would assume they coordinate more with GYX on the border region before they issue a more final map.
  14. ORH_wxman
    IJD is a bit of a snow hole because warm air from the south gets in there unimpeded and it can get a bit of downsloping on an east or northeast wind. It’s not the worst spot in CT but usually most of the towns to your north/northeast/west will do better. I remember the storm you are talking about though last year…I think it was the super bowl Sunday storm on 2/7/21. That awesome band smoked your area.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Just need some pics of your kids playing in 12”+ Friday evening while puffy 30 to 1 CJ dendrites fall on a light northeast wind as you are snow blowing the driveway.
  16. ORH_wxman
    In all seriousness, you at least aren’t gonna get screwed in this one. Jackpot or not….you’re a lock for 8-12” with some upside for 12-16 if you can get into that quasi-stationary banding Friday morning/midday.
  17. ORH_wxman
    He’ll get like 9-10” with round 1 and then the evening CJ/IVT will give him another 3” of currier and Ives jspin fluff and it will allow him to beat Ray by 0.2” and then Ray will have a huge meltdown.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Looks slightly colder than 12z. But almost the same. Noise.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it would favor those type of threats. Cutters are a definite risk too.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I wouldn't change any forecasts yet unless I was on the low side already....if 00z comes in similar to these non-NAM solutions, then I'm probably going to up my expectation to like 8-14" for the pike region. Right now, I'm kind of thinking more like 5-10.
  21. ORH_wxman
    18z Deutschmark went south/colder too to round out the JV suite.
  22. ORH_wxman
    This is the furthest north that run gets with the sleet line....I'm skeptical but that's kind of like the Euro
  23. ORH_wxman
    18z Reggie went another tick colder. Here's 12z Friday:
  24. ORH_wxman
    I wouldn't be surprised if the NAM comes south at 00z and the other guidance comes north to narrow the goalposts. Other guidance is so much colder/south than the NAM that at some point we're going to need to see a convergence.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it went south and is still the warmest....tells you how much of an outlier it was at 12z. I'll bet it comes south again at 00z.
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