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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    I'm not sure I follow....below HFD-PVD is less than 00z? 00z had basically nothing south of them....and 12z had several inches.
  2. ORH_wxman
    00z had no snow south of HFD-PVD....this run has a few inches down in that zone.
  3. ORH_wxman
    No way to know if we get a storm or not in the 12/23-25 timeframe.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it is kind of competing narratives....colder usually means further south with precip, but in this case it does not. The main shortwave is actually stronger than 00z but the confluence to the north is also stronger....so the two trends combined produce a colder outcome but also a more robust precip shield......which is ideal. You want a juiceir shortwave but also not at the expense of cold....the way to get that is to also trend the confluence stronger.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Looks definitively colder than 00z....but the precip shield is a bit more robust so it gets NNE better than 00z.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I'm hoping for another tick or two south before the north trend in the final 48-60 hours. This a pretty nice hit for the pike region and northward....but even well down in CT gets advisory snows before it flips to pellets/ZR.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Perfect timing for indigestion over Quebec.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Yeah this is gonna be cold...starts as snow in almost all of CT.
  9. ORH_wxman
    There's a scooter shitstreak in Quebec that is helping shove it south still at 72h.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Euro looks like it's getting a bit crunched south at 60 hours compared to 00z 72h....but we'll see for sure in the next few frames.
  11. ORH_wxman
    That one had to be at least 1.5-2 inches. Some folks prob got 3"+.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Pretty classic running into a brick wall there...you nearly have a closed 850 high sitting there just N of the US/Quebec border.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Yeah you need to triple that....you're prob only accreting about 2 tenths of that when you consider both runoff and you lose some to sleet/snow on the front end.
  14. ORH_wxman
    We probably need to triple the QPF for him to get his dream of a powerless Xmas.
  15. ORH_wxman
    I can't take the swings on that model. It's infuriating. But I guess it nails the H5 pattern over the Galapagos Islands so we should treat it with respect.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Ukie is coming in a lot colder too, but that model had parrots flying into ORH last night, so it's no surprise it's backing off after what we've seen already at 12z.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it is typical in these events where the WAA aloft is stronger off to the west as opposed to a coastal that might be hugging the coast where the WAA is strongest in southeast areas.
  18. ORH_wxman
    GGEM actually has the back-end snow that Scooter and I were discussing a while ago. Tries to pop a little conveyor as it exits and flips most of the region to snow (that wasn't already previously) for several hours.
  19. ORH_wxman
    There's a crazy gradient for this thing to feed off of too....you have like +13C 850 temps down near DC while it's -5C to -10C from northern SNE into NNE.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Scooter ripping fatties while Kevin is getting scalp-peeler on the GFS.
  21. ORH_wxman
    12z GFS is coming in colder too.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Starting to look pretty likely.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the Euro suite/ensembles have been trying to pop this a bit before it exits and flip a lot of peeps to snow for a few hours. It looks like the NAM and RGEM may try to go that route if we had another panel or two....esp RGEM more than the NAM...RGEM was already collapsing the 925 low at the end.
  24. ORH_wxman
    NAM is like -4C at 925mb along the pike....lol. That would be a scalp-peeling pelletfest here I think. Hoping for a tick colder aloft so it's more snow.
  25. ORH_wxman
    There's a pretty good cold drain that may develop during the storm in the low levels. Could be the type of thing where it starts off as rain (or wet snow in northern SNE/CNE)...and then goes to a drier snow further north and pellets/ZR further south where there is still a warm layer aloft, but the cold drain in the low levels is undercutting that.
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