ORH_wxman

It's not going to be straight rain to ORH unless this warms a lot more.

I love the pattern going forward. Tons of chances in these types of patterns. I think I’ve always said -PNA/-NAO is my favorite pattern for New England. The key is keeping the NAO block stout. If that slips, then you’d get a lot more cutters.

Yeah I think pike region is mostly toast in this one. Prob an inch or two on the front but that won’t be enough to survive until Xmas unless it’s basically all sleet. Gotta hope for a tick colder on the 12z runs, but my guess is the opposite. They will keep nudging warmer...that’s the typical MO for these systems as we get closer.

I think that is a great spot. Prob at least high end advisory snows (4-6”) but could be a bit more. We’ll see how this trends in the final couple days. My gut is this bumps a little north but maybe becomes juicier. Hopefully no ZR there. Sleet isn’t a big deal for the resorts if that happens for a time.

18z gfs came in a tick colder than 12z.

3” of sleet-infused pack would prob do it. Otherwise we’ll have to hope something in the 12/23-25 range works out....which it might. Pattern is ripe for it.

I think all of us in SNE are going to need them because it’s prob coming back north a little once we get inside of 48-60h or so. My gut still says mostly a miss for the majority of SNE (maybe not up by Ray)...lots of sleet and maybe some ZR too but not much snow and mostly rain near the coast. But we’ll see. It’s already trended colder than I ever thought it would so maybe it’s got another tick or two left.

Really tight gradient there on rgem. Like, Foxborough def gets a decent hit of snow...tougher call for you. Right on the line.

18z RGEM tickled colder. PRetty much keeps it all snow near or just north of the MA/CT border.

December 1970 looked a lot like that.

Your guess is prob as good as mine. But there are some good signs that it will be around for at least 2-3 weeks....the PV really gets stretched and takes a good hit, so that will want to promote blocking sticking around for more than just a week or so....the weeklies have been hinting at this staying around for a few weeks as well....and the ensembles have been showing a very strong signal for so far out in the run. Usually when you add all those up, it's a sign that the pattern isn't just a 7-10 day transient blip....we're likely going to have the blocking around well into January. But as we all know, LR forecasting is the ultimate humbling hobby, so things could change.

18z NAM wasn't just north, but it was weaker with confluence, so you dont get that nice fronto thump....the precip is more diffuse. Hopefully it's just a happy hour sauce run....but who knows. I do expect this to trend north at some point, but my hope is that we get a few ticks colder before that happens.

LOL....that one was painful....still a good storm, but man, what could have been. This blocking with non-arctic air pre-Xmas is kind of similar to that look though....at least in our half of the CONUS....the west is far colder than that year because of the monster EPO/-PNA combo.

The woods behind my house has a ton of oaks...so even though I had the yard pristine 3 weeks ago, there are a lot of stragglers that blew leaves into the yard. Really annoying actually.... But anyways, EPS going full nuclear into January is nice:

Yeah no snow pack to protect....lol. I want it 70F...I'd like to make one final pass with the leaf blower. Especially if Saturday is going to end up on the snowier side.

IF we clear out good, MOS will prob be off by at least 6-8F.

The pattern near us is kind of like Dec 1995 in that several days leading into the Dec 19-20 storm. 850 temps weren't even that cold but the sfc was since we had a mean high to our north. Like, here's the Dec 19, 1995 map....

I mean, it's a valid point....usually that pattern would be colder but we haven't had the initial advection of arctic air south so we're dealing with a more marginal airmass pre-Xmas. But as long as storms are shove south of us, we'd still be snow in that setup. 850 climo by Xmas is about -6C or -7C....so hovering a degree or two above that with storm tracks to our south will work....but if a storm tries to hug or cut west, it could be a bigger issue.

Many further south will have to wait until the good stuff advects in from the plains post-Xmas, but those 850 anomalies are totally fine for snow up in NE as long as you squashing storms south of us.

Yep...I was looking even further into the future....but it's already pretty well established before that....even back to around 84-96 hours it's well under way. D10, it's pretty mature and that's a party time look.

What a monster ridge near Bering sea.....and then a monster -NAO block on the other side of the pole.

Still gotta watch the 12/24-12/25 potential

This is actually a really good loop....the midlevel center obviously has trended solidly north in the past few runs....but notice how out to the east in the gulf of maine, the 850 temps haven't moved much....which shows the confluence working. The last frame has solid southerly flow at 850 while the first frame was actually out of the north in that area....but yet not a big difference in temps. That's what you want to see for a classic several hour thump. Only limiting factor in the antecedent airmass is pretty crappy....otherwise this would probably be a decent thump down to even near NYC instead of BOS-ORH being near the line.

You want a stronger thump to get anything worthwhile....with a marginal profile, a lighter precip shield was going to be pretty useless outside of the interior hills. That's why both the main shortwave and the confluence trending stronger at the same time is a better solution.

That's funny that NARCAN is a lot more generous at 00z than you'd expect but less generous down there at 12z. That run looked definitively snowier to me down there than those snow maps would suggest.