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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Pretty classic running into a brick wall there...you nearly have a closed 850 high sitting there just N of the US/Quebec border.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Yeah you need to triple that....you're prob only accreting about 2 tenths of that when you consider both runoff and you lose some to sleet/snow on the front end.
  3. ORH_wxman
    We probably need to triple the QPF for him to get his dream of a powerless Xmas.
  4. ORH_wxman
    I can't take the swings on that model. It's infuriating. But I guess it nails the H5 pattern over the Galapagos Islands so we should treat it with respect.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Ukie is coming in a lot colder too, but that model had parrots flying into ORH last night, so it's no surprise it's backing off after what we've seen already at 12z.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it is typical in these events where the WAA aloft is stronger off to the west as opposed to a coastal that might be hugging the coast where the WAA is strongest in southeast areas.
  7. ORH_wxman
    GGEM actually has the back-end snow that Scooter and I were discussing a while ago. Tries to pop a little conveyor as it exits and flips most of the region to snow (that wasn't already previously) for several hours.
  8. ORH_wxman
    There's a crazy gradient for this thing to feed off of too....you have like +13C 850 temps down near DC while it's -5C to -10C from northern SNE into NNE.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Scooter ripping fatties while Kevin is getting scalp-peeler on the GFS.
  10. ORH_wxman
    12z GFS is coming in colder too.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Starting to look pretty likely.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the Euro suite/ensembles have been trying to pop this a bit before it exits and flip a lot of peeps to snow for a few hours. It looks like the NAM and RGEM may try to go that route if we had another panel or two....esp RGEM more than the NAM...RGEM was already collapsing the 925 low at the end.
  13. ORH_wxman
    NAM is like -4C at 925mb along the pike....lol. That would be a scalp-peeling pelletfest here I think. Hoping for a tick colder aloft so it's more snow.
  14. ORH_wxman
    There's a pretty good cold drain that may develop during the storm in the low levels. Could be the type of thing where it starts off as rain (or wet snow in northern SNE/CNE)...and then goes to a drier snow further north and pellets/ZR further south where there is still a warm layer aloft, but the cold drain in the low levels is undercutting that.
  15. ORH_wxman
    RGEM is also colder than 06z....so we got NAM and RGEM ticking colder.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Yeah there are similarities though the PNA is more negative and NAO not quite as west-based, but it's definitely a very favorable pattern.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Long range pattern is pretty scintillating on guidance. Hopefully it sticks....because we're gonna cash in on that look if it does. 5 day means at Dec 25, Dec 27, and Dec 30.
  18. ORH_wxman
    There’s definitely room for a ribbon of sleet and ZR because the lower level cold drain is further south than the mid level cold.
  19. ORH_wxman
    06z gfs did tickle south again. Euro suite is winning this battle so far. Let’s see if it can throw a shutout or if they win 5-2 or something. Makes a difference for us pike region folks.
  20. ORH_wxman
    An inch wouldn’t last 3 or 4 days even in frigid weather. Not enough water content usually to stave off sublimation.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Looks like euro was still pretty flat at 18z at the end of the run at 90h....not at the computer though to do a Dprog/dt comparison to 12z...how did it look?
  22. ORH_wxman
    Kevin will absolutely lose it if Ray gets a white Christmas and he doesn’t. 2010 MLK style meltdown.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Do you mean 12/5? That was that nuking coastal with very little cold air but it managed to flip to snow....ORH had like 10” of paste. We had about 4” of total mashed potatoes here that froze into a glacier the next day. This wont be a nuking coastal like that.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Ensembles are warmer than euro OP. Colder than GFS OP though. My guess is still mostly a CNE event at this point but maybe we’ll get lucky and grab an inch or two at the end down here.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it would be two solid wins in a row on events. We’ll see I guess.
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