ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Def looking snowier this run for 12/16
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There's a lot of disturbing behavior on here.
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18z icon also juiced up a bit for Sunday night/Monday.
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Rgem looked pretty beefy. That would prob be a solid 2-4” for much of SNE. Maybe some higher lollis. Still have a little ways before we figure it out.
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NAM has prob been the stingiest on this threat. Still out of its wheelhouse but it’s been crunching this system a bit. But plenty of time to amp it up a little more.
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Shortwave is strong on NAM but confluence also looks stronger.
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EPS on 12/16 looks pretty good....a lot of members SE of the OP
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OK starting to come in....first one after the control run was pretty fun
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Don't have individual members yet, but that's a decent QPF mean.
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Once the models "See" the airmass better as we get closer, I'm sure we can finagle a Dec '92 type gradient over E MA.
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Not on this run I don't think...still looks a bit tucky for my liking....but we're still trending with miles to go.
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Yes. I don't trust model guidance to handle this blocking well. We did mention that many times going back. I know you did. It's probably going to change again.
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I'll prob there early grabbing lunch....we're taking the kids out Saturday morning to Hudson/Marlborough area but then I'll head over after that which puts me there prob around 1230.
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Advecting -15C 850s into BOS by Tuesday night
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It might...but sometimes it will focus into a fairly narrow band....hence the NORLUN idea. But we won't know much about that potential until the event is really close. It could still trend more like the GFS and be more of a legit coastal. But my money is on the light snow with maybe a little bit of hangback in spots.
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That blocking is crazy looking. We'd be having flocks of Amazon Parrots ripping into our backyards late next week if it weren't for that.
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This is the type of setup you have to watch for an IVT/Norlun type band that hangs back after the main band of SN- moves through....you can see the isobars inverting back into SNE while at the same time you have very low H5 heights moving overhead to provide the instability.
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Gotta watch for some embedded bands too...the profile is kind of unstable under the shortwave. Very steep lapse rates above 800-850.
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Yeah if we're rooting for an all time exotic frigid slow-moving blizzard.....it's probably the pattern we want. But even aside from that, the slower flow should help amplify more shortwaves instead of fighting meat grinder fast-flow.
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Yeah those are probably the last two winters I saw something like that. Basically taking the flow straight from Siberia into the CONUS.....a true "Siberian Express" pattern.
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The magnitude of that AK/EPO ridge is something I haven't seen a long time for an ensemble mean that far out....it's showing up on all the ensemble guidance too. Not just one suite. It's builidng all the way into the East Siberian Sea.
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Hopefully you can track some OES/IVT action too
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You might get more from Monday than 12/16....lol.
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I mean....it's a D7-8 threat. Don't put he cart before the horse on expectations.
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What in the hell is this from the Ukie....the fishermen on George's Bank are gonna disappear into a vortex
