ORH_wxman

Depends where the PV is….if it’s in Hudson Bay or eastward, that is pretty good for us. We’ve seen that pattern before and done well in it. It’s not a 2015 look, but very few patterns are. If PV drops into like Alberta or something, then it’s a lot worse because we won’t get fresh arctic airmasses in here ahead of any potential SWFEs (which often turn into cutters if you have weak or not confluence and a bad antecedent airmass)

Of those heavy bands rotate in, they should be at least pretty close to 10 to 1. But I’m still skeptical of the big lift needed. If we can get some good model consistency on showing big omega, then I’ll start jumping on board for a warning event in SE areas….but this feels like one’s of those systems that might be disorganized.

I think you have a point in the “certainty” aspect. But I disagree with the magnitude of your claim. Very frequently, we can see better setups coming in advance. If people take that as a claim that good snow events are definitely going to happen, then it’s on them, not the original poster…unless the original poster is making those claims. Pattern talk is inherently going to be less certain than discussing a synoptic setup 4-5 days out…I think most understand that. There’s a reason that very often you’ll see the phrase “let’s get that inside of 10 days…” or some iteration of that. We used to have a separate thread for just pattern talk a few years back that you may or may not recall, but it seems like it always eventually just got smeared into the monthly threads so we stopped doing them.

The 1988-89 through 1991-92 winters are unmatched in ORH in the record for futility. Just an utterly brutal stretch. Not a single 10”+ storm in 4 consecutive winters (no other period in the record has even 3 winters in a row…nevermind 4)

While I agree we’ve mostly verified crappy looks (exception was we did get a nice pattern for about 10-12 days in December but didn’t cash in outside of CNE/NNE), there’s no reason to go post-modern and say the extended doesn’t look good when it actually does. We can obviously discuss whether we think it will verify or not, but as shown, it’s a much colder look than we’ve had.

We really want a good antecedent airmass for these to produce. Airmass out ahead is pretty crappy. It’s cold enough for snow if you get perfect timing but counting on perfect timing is a fools errand most of the time. GGEM actually gives a lot of SNE a pelletfest with some snow at the end.

There was a distinct trend yesterday but it was fleeting. The only way to make that system snow is to time the confluence perfectly. That’s plausible but unlikely.

I don’t have any faith in that system to be a snower for us. Pure gravy if it is.

I’d be pretty surprised if anyone got more than 2 or 3 inches. Most will prob just get a C-1” type deal. You want solid lift for at least 6 hours if we’re talking plowable and most guidance is keeping the goods offshore.

Yeah yesterday was reversed at 18z…12k was lame and the 3k went wild. Lol. At least we have something to track.

It’s a much colder pattern in the northeast than we’ve had. There is still a risk we keep getting screwed on cutters but at least there’s a bit more wiggle room on imperfect tracks in a pattern like that. Just keep an eye on where the PV goes in future guidance. If we start seeing go back into western Canada, then I’ll agree with noreaster27 that it’s the same old look, but if the PV ends up over Hudson Bay or adjacent Quebec, that’s a lot different.

NAM def more robust. Rips the band back to like 495 Sunday night. Prob high end advisory to low end warning down near the Canal this run.

Our shittiest patterns often occur with west coast troughiness but we have a lot of patterns/winters where we still score fine with it (2010-2011 being the chief example….but also years like ‘16-17, ‘07-08, and ‘08-09) But yeah, always smart to keep expectations low and then be pleasantly surprised if things break positive.

Don’t count on a +PNA this winter. But that’s at least a look where there’s a lot of arctic cold around. I’m sure there will still be cutters but we can score well in that pattern too. Just hope we finally catch a couple breaks.

06z euro was pretty nice for the Cape area to maybe adjacent parts of PYM county…does get a few inches for ORH-eastward too

All iced up outside. Almost seems like a HECS this winter to have something impactful.

I feel like that event is a tease for SNE and it will end up north….but as you said, we’re kind of due for one to break right, even if only for part of SNE. But that one has a marginal setup/airmass so I’m not getting too invested.

I think it’s pretty much do or die time by roughly 1/25 on the pattern. We need to catch a break and put up a crooked number on the scoreboard by the end of the month or we’re not recovering to a respectable seasonal number. It would’ve awesome to steal a few inches this weekend and then steal a low end warning event next Thursday but there’s a decent chance both don’t pan out which leaves the clock ticking…we are down the final week of January…and while the pattern looks pretty good, you can easily still miss.

Yes.

The guidance post-12z seems to be trending more toward the round 2 stuff and less emphasis on that initial band in round 1 on Sunday afternoon. We’ll see if 00z keeps that up or reverses trends. It’s been a pretty volatile system on guidance.

Coming west with the bigger band on Sunday too. Though again, it remained the eastern outlier at 12z so it had to come west…hitting the cape by 48h. Not sure if it will reach BOS this run.

Yeah it hammered almost all of E MA from ORH eastward. There was a pretty good gradient just west of ORH though where the dryslot was able to punch in from the SW and they also didn’t get some of the heaviest bands that developed at the height of the storm. That CCB band at the end collapsing SE that dumped like 8” in two hours is what put it over the top from a run-of-the-mill 15 incher to a 2 footer. Further west missed most of that band.

Lets not get hyperbolic....after a summer GTG on the golf course with me, Bob, and a few edibles with Ginxy meeting us for a beer afterwards, I will enamor you with tales of Feb 5, 2001 to Jan 12, 2011 to even Feb 1983 if we have to stoop to such levels.... you'll be ready to run through a wall again searching for that W CT HECS.

Lower levels should cool quite quickly tonight...I'd expect most everyone is at or below freezing by 09z outside of the coastal spots. So any snow that is in the 09z-15z time range early tomorrow should stick. I don't really expect much of anything in that time range, but should it materialize, it should be cold enough for something better than white rain.

It has the Monday round 2 snows too that are more widespread...kind of like at 12z.