Weather Will

WB 18Z GEFS, looks good...

Flood watch east of Frederick county MD.... Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford- Spotsylvania-King George-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Greenbelt, Germantown, Bethesda, Sterling, Lexington Park, Annapolis, Laurel, Arlington, Fredericksburg, Cockeysville, Eldersburg, Gaithersburg, Herndon, Huntingtown, Manassas, Dale City, Leesburg, Severna Park, Falmouth, North Beach, Franconia, Elkton, Ellicott City, Arnold, Camp Springs, Falls Church, Dahlgren, Montclair, Reston, Damascus, Ashburn, Washington, Alexandria, Lake Ridge, College Park, Glen Burnie, St. Charles, Jarrettsville, Clinton, Chantilly, Silver Spring, California, Odenton, Westminster, Reisterstown, Dunkirk, Prince Frederick, Chesapeake Beach, Lusby, Severn, South Gate, Rockville, Bowie, Aberdeen, Centreville, Haymarket, Woodbridge, Annandale, Columbia, Lisbon, McLean, Suitland-Silver Hill, Waldorf, and Baltimore 132 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of DC, including the following , District of Columbia, Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Cecil, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore and St. Marys, and Virginia, including the following areas, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, King George, Northwest Prince William, Spotsylvania and Stafford. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through early Monday morning * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - One to three inches of rain are mostly likely Sunday evening through early Monday morning. This amount of rain could cause flooding of small streams, creeks and urban areas. Localized amounts up to four inches are possible along and east of I-95.

People hate the snow maps but they tell me that we are in the game for the end of the month...couple of big hits to our south....WB 12Z GEFS.

There is snow cover N of the border (WB)

Next milestone for me is whether there is a distinct threat on our radar by the end of next weekend.

MJO progression supports colder temps as we enter 2024.

WB latest GEFS for first week of January everything still looks on track for a transition to a favorable pattern as we head into January. Nice to see that we ARE progressing into a more favorable pattern by the end of '23 as modeling/forecasters/ subject matter experts in this forum have predicted since at least Thanksgiving. Will it deliver big snow as we enter the heart of winter/ peak snow climo?! Hope so!!!

WB 18Z NAM, winds are crazy Sunday night....

Maybe a little snow too!

Another drought denting rain and wind storm on the way...

WB 6Z GFS, late weekend storm did tick east this run with heaviest rain and wind.

WB 0Z EPS has it too....

That will be our January 20 version!!!

WB 18Z GFS rain blizzard incoming....

WB 12Z EURO. Big story this run is a big drought denting storm and wind....

WB 6Z GFS.....early next week system....20 degrees colder this run....buckle up!!!!

WB 0Z EPS Day 14 compared to yesterday. Looks better!

WB 0Z GEFS, colder at the end of its run compared to 18Z and compared to average...maybe today will be a better day!!!

WB 18Z GEFS Day 1 compared to Day 16 seems like we are heading the right direction to me...

WB GEFS Day 15 run to run changes headed in the right direction.

I have had a horrible month at work so a Christmas miracle would be great....but folks I will say that watching every model run for changes in two weeks is like watching paint dry, we all need to relax a little, and remember it is going to do what it is going to do regardless....

WB 18Z GEFS not a torch or blizzard for Christmas....and it snows on 2 members....

WB 18Z GEFS, looking for a chilly Christmas? South Florida, Cuba and the Yucatán!

WB 0Z... another drought denting storm potential inside a week. If this pattern continues we will get a snowstorm eventually.... patience.

Latest from WB; JMA holds firm for east coast winter pattern Jan and Feb. Its forecast for a warm Dec verified. JB says transition by Dec. 30th.