Weather Will
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Everything posted by Weather Will
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They have been consistent for awhile. Will be very interesting to see if the ensembles start going in this direction as we go through the next 7 days.
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I posted the current month to make the point that it not in sync with its own weeklies, which are cooler late month. The warning shot from the Can. seasonal is that there is no cold air through January.
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Would the higher resolution GFS, pick up on a small system faster than GEFS?
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WB 6Z GFS, with our thread the needle system, inside 8 days.
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Before everyone falls off the cliff over the latest Can. Seasonal, I thought it interesting that its latest weekly is different even for December. So I am tossing it. (WB)
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WB latest EURO weekly snow maps ensemble and control because it is the best map I've seen to date this winter.
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WB latest EURO weeklies , holds steady on colder end of December.
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MJO gets toward 7 by the 14th... hopefully laying the foundation for a more favorable pattern as we head toward the holidays.
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I have been watching the weeklies every day because I look for trends. The trends are delaying the sustained cold until late December. Could something pop up in a sea of warm. Sure! But that is not going to get picked up outside a couple days at best.
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In December? Hope you are correct. I do appreciate the thought without being a smart ass.
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I will take the half inch of rain for next week. When it is cold enough will look for snow. WB 12Z EPS through next Wed.
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Latest WB Euro weeklies look too warm to support frozen until the last week of the month.
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WB 6Z GEFS, will take every drop of rain early next week.
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Latest WB GEFS extended: Peak of the coming warm up is the 7 day period ending on Dec. 8. Then slide to below normal as we approach Christmas week. Christmas week still looks chilly. Heaviest precip. Period is centered around the 7 day period ending around Christmas so a possible white holiday is still on the table.
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WB RRFS has it near freezing overnight in DCA and 25 Wed. Am. We were only colder one night last winter on Feb. 4.
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This really belongs under current obs, but it is cold tonight folks. It can still get cold. RELAX, plus whining about it does not make it better. And being nasty about it really is ridiculous. If we have a cold January we just need a little luck.
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Latest WB EURO weeklies (27th)
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WB latest EURO weeklies. Looks like after our current cold snap, it does not go well below normal again until after Christmas. Through mid January, it is cold.
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I used a smiley face, and there is nothing going on this week....but fair enough will refrain.
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WB latest EURO weekly control through Jan.10, you can't make this stuff up..... The Euro weekly run from early today is not as cold through December....but is cold in January.
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The WB GEFS extended from yesterday showed warmth through the 7 day period ending on the 8th. We should see a significant cool down as we head toward mid month. If you are looking for snow during the holidays, the upcoming mid to late December pattern gives us a chance based on the current long range guidance. It definitely is not screaming torch... .
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For over a month, many of the long range forecasters and the seasonal models have been talking/showing potential for mid Dec. onward. Ensembles are coming into range by the end of the week...potential still looks on track. Discernible threats TBD. WB 6Z GEFS has PNA neutral to positive by December 3rd.
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WB 18Z EURO and GFS for Wed. Am. Let's see which model is closer esp. inside the DC beltway.
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WB 12Z ensemble means are on the dry side the next 2 weeks.
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Any met comment on DT's thoughts on the -NAO in early Dec? ( that is not really a -NAO?)
