Weather Will

WB 22Z HRRR

Latest WB EURO weeklies should see the GOA trough retrograding before the end the month and a nice trough in the east by the first week in January. Hope that it verifies....normal temps by around the first and below normal a month away.

NWS Sterling Dec 10 2023 324pm ...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING... Rain is expected to change to snow overnight into early Monday morning. The changeover will occur first at elevations above 1,000 feet near and west of the Catoctin and Blue Ridge Mountains between 10 PM and 1 AM. The changeover will spread into the lower elevations, and east into the far northwestern suburbs of Washington and Baltimore between 1 AM and 4 AM. Precipitation is expected to end from west to east between 4 AM and 7 AM. A quick slushy coating on grassy and elevated surfaces is possible over the lower elevations below 1,000 feet, with localized amounts around one inch possible. For elevations above 1,000 feet, accumulations will most likely range between 1 and 3 inches, with slightly higher amounts possible over the crest of the Catoctin Mountains. Slow down and use caution while traveling.

I will take the 18Z 12K NAM

WB 18Z HRRR

Run stops at 6am.

WB 17Z HRRR, brings snow band east of mountains at midnight. 4am looks great for me, and then by 6 am N and west of DC beltway.

Maybe if I squint when I leave for work at 430am I will see a few flakes on my car... actually it would make my week....

WB 12Z GEFS, another drought denting storm next weekend/ Monday as well. No cold enough air to support snow except maybe in the highest elevations at this time.

WB 12Z GFS: snow 1am to 4 am. Cleared out before 6am. Surface temps in mid 30s.

12Z NAMs: enjoy the much needed rain.

Enjoying a beautiful rainy day....can't control the weather no matter how many model runs I look at. Take what we can get...Can't wait for my afternoon nap!

One of the reasons the colder look has disappeared as we head into January is the MJO is now forecast to go into the null phase rather than do the loop through 7. Hopefully that will be wrong.

Looking at the WB OZ EPS teleconnections the PNA is favorable but none of the other indices are showing a colder look. Hopefully the strat. warm everyone keeps talking about or the MJO will shake this up.. edit: EPO is negative around the 17th, but without NAO help would flavor an inland track for the next storm. At least we are getting much needed rain..

I am posting realistic maps. Let's be real, at best we potentially have a couple of hours of snow trying to stick on soggy ground when it is above freezing...

WB 3K NAM 4 inch liquid totals DC metro East...Mon. Am rush hour will be a mess. Good day to telework...

WB 0Z 3K NAM

Does anyone know which model forecasts MJO the best? They are all over the place.

WB 18Z GEFS looks better than EURO...

WB 18Z EURO, if I see two inches I will be thrilled.

WB 12Z 3K NAM....big story is the widespread beneficial rain....I hope the snow works out!!!! Would love to see it.

WB 3K NAM with surfaces temperatures either near or above freezing the depth map would be much more realistic. I would be thrilled with an inch or two....

816 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of DC, including the following , District of Columbia, Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Cecil, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford and Southern Baltimore, and northern Virginia, including the following areas, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Fairfax, Southern Fauquier and Stafford. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Two to three inches of rain are expected Sunday through late Sunday night with the heaviest rains falling during the afternoon and evening. This amount of rain could cause flooding of small streams, creeks and urban areas. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information

Nice drought denting storm....and a little breezy....WB 6Z EURO.

WB 6Z EURO snow depth map, I hope my dusting verifies!