Weather Will

Went for a nice walk and the sediment ponds have ice around the edges. The ground is also hard. Yes, next week will be warmer but it is chilly today!

Acceptable WB 6Z GEFS run....

Yesterday's WB GEFS extended control....

The weeklies still look good for January. Will the pattern deliver snowfall in the next 2 weeks? We wait and see. I agree with Ji that over the next week or so, we need to see whether we can get a distinct threat south of the MD/ PA line. H5s can be as full of jive as the digital snow maps.

Nothing going on this week, chill a little, last night we had people talking about immigration.

WB 18Z GEFS, P8 or 9 please

Ji, you have lowered your standards!!!!

Feeling different hopefully will translate into a different outcome than the past several years over the next 90 days. Lot of people in this forum including myself will be disappointed if it does not.

WB 0Z GFS. Christmas looks dry and seasonal.... not a torch.

Just looking at the next 10-11 days, looks too warm for snow. WB 18Z GEFS. Maybe it will look different by the end of this week. H5 maps may look perfect but it still has to be 32 or below. I am not being pessimistic about winter, just suggest people look for some cold air being established first, then look for shortwaves.

WB 6Z GEFS definitely trending more to EPS with more ridging out west and deeper trough in east. 6Z today compared to yesterday.

Heaviest rain between 8pm-early am; by 6 am just scattered showers according to 22Z HRRR.

Good for the highest elevations....WB 18Z 3K NAM

NWS Sterling ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast, northern, southern and western Maryland, The District of Columbia, northern, northwest and western Virginia and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From 8 AM to 2 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. &&

WB 12Z EURO, dreaming of a white Christmas Eve?

We can move this to banter but I do post a lot of ensemble runs beyond 5 days. WB 12Z GEFS is colder this run at day 10.

I don't know why anyone cares what the GFS depicts beyond 5 days....

WB 12Z 3K NAM

On latest WB GEFS extended it takes us into the second week of January before the continent really starts to get cold. Hopefully before then we stay just cold enough with some moderate storms that slide to our south as already discussed. in terms of can kicking, the can keeps kicking on bringing sustained below normal temps. Let's see if this timeframe holds just in time for peak winter climo.

NWS Sterling: I like these graphics. They should incorporate into their bulletins (watches and warnings)

WB 0Z 3K NAM

WB 18Z GEFS, looks good...

Flood watch east of Frederick county MD.... Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford- Spotsylvania-King George-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Greenbelt, Germantown, Bethesda, Sterling, Lexington Park, Annapolis, Laurel, Arlington, Fredericksburg, Cockeysville, Eldersburg, Gaithersburg, Herndon, Huntingtown, Manassas, Dale City, Leesburg, Severna Park, Falmouth, North Beach, Franconia, Elkton, Ellicott City, Arnold, Camp Springs, Falls Church, Dahlgren, Montclair, Reston, Damascus, Ashburn, Washington, Alexandria, Lake Ridge, College Park, Glen Burnie, St. Charles, Jarrettsville, Clinton, Chantilly, Silver Spring, California, Odenton, Westminster, Reisterstown, Dunkirk, Prince Frederick, Chesapeake Beach, Lusby, Severn, South Gate, Rockville, Bowie, Aberdeen, Centreville, Haymarket, Woodbridge, Annandale, Columbia, Lisbon, McLean, Suitland-Silver Hill, Waldorf, and Baltimore 132 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of DC, including the following , District of Columbia, Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Cecil, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore and St. Marys, and Virginia, including the following areas, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, King George, Northwest Prince William, Spotsylvania and Stafford. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through early Monday morning * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - One to three inches of rain are mostly likely Sunday evening through early Monday morning. This amount of rain could cause flooding of small streams, creeks and urban areas. Localized amounts up to four inches are possible along and east of I-95.

People hate the snow maps but they tell me that we are in the game for the end of the month...couple of big hits to our south....WB 12Z GEFS.