Weather Will
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Everything posted by Weather Will
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WB 0Z EURO for Sunday/Monday. Maybe some conversational snow east of the mountains? Something to watch at 5 days.
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Latest WB EURO seasonal Jan. Thru March. Looks pretty good to me.
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WB 6Z GFS....welcome rain heading in Sunday
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Lot of volatility in the models, look at the one run temperature swing on the GFS in day 13 +....who knows what will happen.
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On the latest WB weeklies, it takes until the 1st for the cold air to get reentrenched and hold.
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Flurry watch still in effect for tomorrow night/ Wed. Am. Happy Monday! WB 6Z GFS.
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WB 12Z GEFS, next precip. maker most likely rain in the Sun. / Mon. period. I do like the stormy pattern developing..and yes there are a couple colder members....so something to watch.
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Back in the shorter term, flurry watch for early Wed. am, and nice accumulation for the mountains. WB 12Z NAM.
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The one thing catching my eye this am is that the day old weeklies would not reflect that the latest MJO forecast is much less amplified as it heads toward 7. So not sure how much help we will get from the tropical forcing as we head into the second half of the month. WB GEFS extended does not really get the cold air entrenched until the first week of January.
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WB 18Z GEFS at Day 16 v. Operational
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The deterministic models can't handle the pattern outside 5 days at best. Look at 12Z EURO yesterday at 240 hours compared to today at 216 hours. 30 degrees warmer on the latest run! So outside 5 days use the best thing we have, which is the ensembles.
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Correct, and this week will be watching for signs of the modeled cool down by the last week of the month.
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WB latest 12Z GEFS Day 11-16.
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I have not given up on the last week of December yet. And it is not the end of the world if the can gets kicked down the road a couple weeks into mid January. I never said throw the winter away. But I am pointing out that the ensembles should start showing a shift toward an eastern trough toward the end of their runs by the end of next weekend if the holiday week has any winter potential.
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I learned the hard way last year that if the PNA approaches -3 or lower standard deviation the rest of the indices don't matter for the Mid Atlantic. Hopefully that does not happen but it is a possibility that can't be completely discounted at this time. The weekly control, yes I know just one member, is a torch Christmas week. That is a warning shot....
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WB 6Z GEFS PNA can't get this to stay positive who cares about everything else.
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WB 18Z GFS
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They have been consistent for awhile. Will be very interesting to see if the ensembles start going in this direction as we go through the next 7 days.
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I posted the current month to make the point that it not in sync with its own weeklies, which are cooler late month. The warning shot from the Can. seasonal is that there is no cold air through January.
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Would the higher resolution GFS, pick up on a small system faster than GEFS?
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WB 6Z GFS, with our thread the needle system, inside 8 days.
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Before everyone falls off the cliff over the latest Can. Seasonal, I thought it interesting that its latest weekly is different even for December. So I am tossing it. (WB)
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WB latest EURO weekly snow maps ensemble and control because it is the best map I've seen to date this winter.
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WB latest EURO weeklies , holds steady on colder end of December.
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MJO gets toward 7 by the 14th... hopefully laying the foundation for a more favorable pattern as we head toward the holidays.
