Weather Will

Looks great to me! WB 18Z GFS

It is actually pretty sad that the models are so bad inside 3 days in 2024. Again, not talking about nailing rain/ snow line yet but the general intensity of the storm.

WB NAM v. Can. pretty stark differences, forget the rain/ snow line.

Correct. But the heaviest precipitation, what there is of it, is to our North.

Weak sauce on EURO, biggest Lucy on this storm is not the rain/ snow line but the poor intensity forecast. I guess the flow is still too fast/ too many competing vortices, and not enough spacing between them.

WB 6Z EURO

WB 6Z GFS 1pm Sat, 4pm, 7pm and precip.totals.

Latest from NWS Sterling LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A strong southern stream mid/upper-level trough over the Mid-South Friday night quickly moves northeast as it phases into a flat trough over the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. At the surface, an associated area of low pressure develops along the northern Gulf Coast and very quickly moves across the Southeast states through Saturday morning. The surface low becomes better organized as it crosses eastern NC into far southeast VA, where it moves offshore along the NC/VA border. Precipitation overspreads the area from southwest to northeast starting late Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures Friday night are forecast to be below freezing for most of the area. However, there is considerable uncertainty to the east of US-15 as easterly winds advect in a warmer marine airmass and strong WAA ahead of the surface low help to increase temps along/east of I-95. All that being said, precipitation is likely to start out as snow west of US- 15 and a rain/snow mix along/east of US-15. As the morning progresses, areas east of I-95 are most likely to transition to a cold rain, with steady snow west of US-15, and a mix in between. Having the surface high well to the north and weak onshore flow proceeding the surface low are not generally favorable for accumulating snow along I-95. Any chance to see higher snow totals there will be dependent on higher precip rates and wet bulb effects overcoming the marginal temperature profile. Still, p-type is going to be highly sensitive to the track of the low, with a tight rain-snow gradient likely. Significant snow accumulations are most likely along/west of the Blue Ridge and Catoctins. Where precip is more likely to be in the form of rain, near and east of I-95, there is the potential for instances of flooding. Continue to monitor the progress of this storm as the weekend approaches. The coastal low tracks northeast and away from the area Saturday night, then a reinforcing upper traverses the area on Sunday. Some lingering rain and snow showers possible during the first part of Monday north of I-66 and west of the Blue Ridge, though conditions dry out quickly in the afternoon. Upslope mountain snow showers continue into Sunday night.

WB 6Z ICON

But the intensity drop really is a downer....agree on the rain/ snow line.

What sucked me in this time was that more than one global had a decent storm for multiple runs. I guess the globals just can't be relied on outside a few days as some of the experts pointed out.

Weak low on ICON now as well....

Don't trust the globals outside 48 hours.

WB 6Z GEFS is a tick cooler also.

Fun week ahead! Miserable being back to work but there are systems to track!!! HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!!

WB 6Z GFS for next Tuesday...

GFS Temp. Profile WB 1 am Sun.

WB GFS Temp profile 7pm Sat. Near freezing NW. WB

WB 6Z GFS totals

Nice run....WB

4pm WB

WB 6Z GFS 7am Sat. 540 tick south of 0Z

WB 6Z ICON

Good luck with EURO, have to get 3 flours more sleep to catch the early train!