WB 12Z EURO has it figured out all right….what is bad about the EURO is its complete lack of cold air/confluence. If that is correct, the track does not matter.
I fall for this too, but as we keep saying OPS outside 5 days may give hints of macro weather: stormy, mild, cold etc. but not specifics. If the EURO showed a blizzard this run it would be fools gold for 6 hours…
I may have no idea what I am talking about, but looking at the WB 6Z GFS pressure maps you can see that the model is trying to consolidate the low to the coast but it takes too long for our latitude. Still need to see how this plays out. With marginal cold air we need an earlier consolidated transfer to the coast.