Weather Will

WB GEFS snow mean current and last 4 runs about the same IMBY. Less SE.

WB 12Z GFS

I see the ICON as the canary in the coal mine. It did not show an inland track, so it was a win for me.

WB ICON 7pm Sat.

WB 6Z GEFS, still a lot of members showing nothing as well.

With marginally cold air, track will be key. Even 25 mile shift either way will make huge difference at this point. WB OZ EPS favors NW zones.

NWS discussion this am. As the high pressure moves east, a quick return flow will develop ahead of a low pressure system that could bring wintry precipitation to many locations by midday Saturday and into Saturday night. High temperatures will be seasonable with highs in the 40s. Models are beginning to show some agreement with next weekend`s low pressure system in which the track of the low could be to our south and intensify as it approaches the mid-Atlantic Coast. The consensus low pressure system track has the low moving from central North Carolina, across the Tidewater of southeastern Virginia and just offshore of the Delmarva. It is too early to tell how much rainfall, how much snowfall, locations of these types of weather, and the timing of impact. We will need to monitor next weekend`s low pressure system over the early part of this week.

WB 0Z GEFS

What could possibly go wrong?

I will be more excited if GEFS gets onboard.

WB 0Z Canadian at least has it.

Finally staying up was not the kiss of death...

WB 10am- 1pm

What is the WB 0Z Canadian doing with Th?

TT ICON is a miss to the south for the 7th but like the setup. Oops, too slow!!! Will take it as a win that it can still snow in the coastal plain to our southeast. WB snow map

Yesterday the runs looked horrible, today good, although the latest GEFS brings the SER back again at the end of the run. Lot of volatility/ chaos. Honestly, will be disappointed if we don't see some snow in the next 2 weeks but only God knows what is going to happen....will say I was really relieved to see a model show a coastal low with snow in the comma. Been a long time...

I LOVED the WB 18Z GFS for next Sunday, but the GEFS mean does not currently support the HH GFS. Until the GEFS mean or at least another major model shows the same scenario, expectations should be kept in check big time.

At 8 days out EURO and GFS. Hopefully, the GFS is correct with more spacing before the next western wave comes ashore.

Abysmal latest GEFS extended run basically punts January. One run, and hopefully it is wrong.

WB latest EURO weeklies, at least it looks like a wet month ahead...

WB 18Z GFS, to my untrained eye, midweek storm close to a phase

Summary of the 12Z look at the pattern change

WB 12Z GEFS. One big hit for the storm on the 4th.

If you squint the next weekend storm may give us us a flake on the WB 12Z Can.

I am taking a one week at a time worth of storms approach at this point, 100s of pages with people repeating the same thing over and over. (Including myself). This work week looks like the first storm brings another round of snow for the ski resorts. WB 12Z GFS for midweek storm.