Weather Will

WB 0Z GEFS 24 hour period. Weak sauce…

I’m amused that we are discussing the snow maps. My point is that the 12Z EURO suite is much more robust for a bigger storm than any other models….hopefully it is correct. and I am subdued because we have seen the EPS and EURO flip so I am trying to keep myself from getting disappointed. Believe me if we start seeing a significant increase in GEFS, I will be happy!!! The 12Z EPS members have several hits that would make people smile… But I would caution last night’s 0Z EPS run (last picture) was not as robust so we really don’t have a trend yet even on the EPS. Bottom line is that I will keep my expectations in check until we see more consistency within models and a greater consensus among models.

No reason to post the GEFS snow maps….

I’m more conservative this year and very busy!!!

WB 12Z GFS….model still figuring out track…

Latest MJO forecast for GFS and EURO still take it into Phase 8 by the 12th. Also 6Z run of the WB CFS keeps it chilly through mid February so we may have an extended period of time where at least the temperature will cooperate even if the short to mid term still does not show a discreet threat.

WB 6Z GFS really still figuring things out at Day 7….current and last several runs for same time period.

WB 0Z GEFS…there are both torch and colder members at mid month. My guess is we see whether the MJO actually goes into phases 8-1 or not.

Latest MJO….maybe we go into Phase 8 mid month.

WB 12Z GFS…weekend flizzard.

WB 6Z GEFS…still watching mid January.

And of course, the WB 12Z EURO control has it….

By the end of next week, it will shift westward and be another blizzard for Buffalo…but until then I will watch it….(perhaps keeping an eye on it will make all of the work that has piled up while I have been off for a week bearable to get through as I go back...)

Few acceptable hits on the WB 12Z EPS clown maps for the second half of the period….

WB EPS at Day 12.

WB 12Z EPS Under Day 10….

Believe….

WB day 14 GEFS….is this a strat. warm that if correct could shake up the pattern?

WB 12Z GEFS…middle of next week (under 10 days)…is at least a bone to watch…

Looking at the WB 6Z CFS extended there looks to be two windows of opportunity with colder air. The first period is the 7 day period peaking about the 13th. It then warms up again, and we get another colder shot move in around the 26th lasting until the end of the run in mid February with the peak of the cold centered around the 7 day period ending February 6.

Actually this flip is different from the December cold snap….so hopefully we will get a different result….the trough is retrograding westward. It is not an arctic cold front…WB 18Z GEFS.

WB 18Z GEFS P26 for this Friday’s storm. P2 for the January 11 storm. P13 for the January 15 storm…. What could possibly go wrong????

WB 12Z ensembles…. Hopefully see big improvements by next weekend under Day 15. Patience will be needed before our next window of opportunity.

Lot of false hope in December with H5 maps…chance of any meaningful snow the first week of January is de minimus. Maybe by next weekend there will be someone to track inside 10 days.

WB OZ EURO in fantasy range