Weather Will

Monitoring for a big dog the last week of January. WB 6Z AI EPS. All of this prob. for more than 6 inches is beyond Day 10.

This picture says it all for those of us in the perpetual snowless zone. Luckily it is just one run of GOOFUS but since it has been showing the same thing for several winters it is getting depressing.

WB 12Z GFS. Big shift compared to 6Z.

WB 6Z EPS. Good luck eastern zones. The rest of us wait at least another week....

Back to winter cold tomorrow: WB 6Z 3K NAM

44 years ago (Jan 13, 1982), it was snowing in DC, and the late WUSA Chief Meteorologist Gordon Barnes was giving a live update on WTOP radio. It was the way to get the latest weather and school closings before the internet. I was 14 at the time, and knew something horrible had just happened when they interrupted him to announce two tragedies: a plane struck the 14th street bridge and there were many killed along with survivors bring pulled out of the icy Potomac, and at the same time, there was a subway derailment that killed and trapped people underground near the Smithsonian. It was an evening I will never forget. About 7 inches fell in DC.

WB latest GEFS extended showing a snowy look for the last week of January.

WB latest EPS extended almost takes us through the end of February....looks good!

WB 18Z EURO for Saturday....

WB 18Z GFS

WB 12Z EPS 7 day temp and precip. anomalies and snow 21-28th.

January is not delivering as promised but there are signs of a more active jet stream by the last week of the month. Whether the storm track is white or wet TBD. One cautionary note: the pattern keeps looking good two weeks out. Need to see if it holds this time around.

WB 12Z GEFS

I am waiting to post something positive.....

WB 12Z EPS teleconnections look good except PNA around the 3rd week and it is moving back toward neutral last week of the month.

People can keep their heads in the sand but the GEFS and EPS ensembles were never showing much for late week. Ignore them at your own risk. I learned this the hard way too....

If anyone cares 18Z ICON has nothing.

Snow flurries in Frederick, probably the most I'll see this month....

WB 6Z EURO (rain limits accumulations)

WB 6Z GEFS is a little better....

WB 6Z GFS is moving North as well....

The ICON at 6Z is also weaker, further north, no storm.

WB 0Z GFS. No changes through HR. 48.

Wasn't there a time when the GFS handled northern stream better?

WB 0Z Icon misses....but nice move SW with the upper low compared to 18Z.