Weather Will

When you go out to Dec. 6, you see that that the model is really struggling with the pattern. Some members torch; some members cold. So we are in wait mode....WB 12Z EPS

Correct. Looks like a chilly Thanksgiving weekend with warmth on either side.

WB latest EPS weeklies centers the coldest period in December around the holidays now with normal precip. Maybe we will be able to do more than dream about a White Christmas this year. Definitely does not look like a torch right now around the holidays.

WB latest 12Z EPS: temps average near normal/ slightly above through Dec 5. Precipitation looks like it will pick up toward the end of the period but nothing extreme. Looks like any big storms will track NW of the MA during this time frame with the NAO slightly positive and the PNA slightly negative.

WB 6Z AI ensemble....lock in our 1-50 chance for a post Thanksgiving blizzard.

My cherry tree canceled winter....

WB 18Z AI EPS: first threat of the season in early December?

Yes! Much needed rain on the way. WB 18Z 3K NAM.

WB 9Z NBM for late Tuesday/ early Wed. We need every drop...

Latest WB EPS weeklies 30 day period ending Dec. 31.

WB 12Z 12K NAM

Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Augusta-Rockingham- Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Western Loudoun- Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy- 729 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast, and northern Maryland, northern, northwest, and western Virginia, and the eastern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From 9 AM to 6 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

Latest EPS and GEFS extended MJO both head into Phase 7 by the end of the month after a long stall in warm Phase 6. Question: DT states 7 is still a warm phase in December while JB says 7 is ok in December. Anyone have data on this topic. If 7 is still warm we will wait until mid December for Phase 8.

WB latest GEFS control, a magical early December to remember....

I share your enthusiasm for snow and many on the forum will say that I still post too many "clown" snow maps, ( I think I'm a better poster now with the excellent constructive feedback I have received) but there is nothing here....when I see many members showing 3 or more inches of snow inside 7 days, I start watching. You will be able to post the above most of the season and you won't see a flake east of the mountains. With this system, at this time it is weak sauce on the EPS and just too warm. WB 12Z EPS.

WP forecast is for slightly below average snowfall and the article is a good reference because it provides a summary/link of the local forecaster's winter forecasts. General theme is more snow for the NW zones this year. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/11/13/dc-winter-forecast-snow-2025-2026/

I get it, but let's try to keep the vibes positive this winter, at least it is not a shut the blinds look....maybe we will get lucky...

WB latest EPS for 30 day period starting with Thanksgiving. Looks a lot better than most recent years.

Not sure where to ask this question ...but anyone have any intel. on whether the new Canadian PARA now on WB is a good model? It will be interesting to see how it tracks storms this winter.

Latest extended EPS extended MJO. Phase 7 to 8 in December would be nice...

WB 6Z EURO for Tues am. Hopefully an appetizer for the winter season ahead!

Latest EPS extended MJO. I read 7 is good in December.

WB latest weeklies: lot of below normal temps leading up to Christmas still with normal precipitation.

WB latest weeklies. Cool and normal precip leading into Christmas. Does not look like a torch leading into the holidays this year.

Apparent temps: wind chills.