Weather Will

WB 12Z EURO Day 7.....

Just trying to keep expectations in check so people aren't disappointed. The globals are really worthless outside Day 5. Ensembles are ok through Day 10. Just nothing screaming snow storm incoming right now. Hopefully that will change over the next week...

WB 12Z GEFS has nothing for next 10 days.

EURO AI nothing for next week either....

12Z GEFS shows a progressive trough moving off the coast. No big coastal storm for next week.

Let's see what the EURO shows...

Yes! We need the moisture....WB 12Z RDPS.

I hope everyone realizes my post was trying to make a point.....it ain't easy getting everything to line up for a BECS/MECS.

Let me get this straight: So for a major east coast snow storm we need: -AO, +PNA, -NAO, -WPO, -EPO, weak SPV or SW, MJO in phases 1-3, low sun angle during the day, Modoki El Niño SST in Pacific and below normal in Atlantic to keep SER in check, and all cows farting SE in the upper Midwest to push down enough cold air. At the same time at the surface, we need an upper level low in the TN valley, an arctic High over Quebec, and a surface low tracking NNE off of Hatteras....oh and a truckload of luck. What am I missing!!!?

I am a true believer that the MJO is the primary driver. It overwhelms the other indices....it is ruining our January chances this year.

WB 12Z GEFS....next 10 days are nada...

WB 12Z EURO. Widespread rain still on tap for weekend.

WB 18Z AI EPS 7 day height anomalies ending 21st.

WB 6Z EURO. Rainy period on tap for Friday-Sunday.

WB latest GEFS extended likes the seven day period ending Jan. 25.

WB 12Z EPS probabilities for 3 inches the next 15 days....hopefully this will increase by the weekend.

On the bright side, if we get enough rain this weekend, it will wash the salt away. WB 12Z GFS

Latest WB EPS extended for first two weeks of February show below normal temps and normal precipitation.

In a new post, JB states there will be a 5-7 day window for an east coast storm but then we will wait until February with the MJO going into Phase 6.

Missed my point. I know it is not snowing this week....the ensembles beyond 7 days stink and people should not get anxious about it. If the ensembles light up next week inside 7 days that means we have something to track because inside a week they are worth looking at because they are more accurate as you state above.

People hate the snow maps, but on quick glance at the WB 12Z EPS show last no chance of snow over the next week. Hopefully, this will look better by next Sunday for the following week.

To clarify, when I posted the phase 6 graphics, I was not canceling winter, but rather pointing out that this not conducive to a mid January cold and snowy period. Even JB said this is a red flag.... I am in the "let's see something within 5 days on more than one model camp" before I get excited about any winter weather.

Unfortunately, MJO is now forecasted into Phase 6 mid month. Until it goes through it, not much hope for a good pattern. This was not expected by any of the snowy, cold prognosticators even a week ago.

WB 18Z EPS AI.... all of the hits are at least 11 days away so hopefully we will something to track by the end of NEXT weekend....

Maybe!!!!! That is why there are crazy people like us that look at every run!!!! If I were smart I would turn it off for a week....