Weather Will

WB 18Z EURO is not letting SC off the hook yet.

Humberto is a beast that is now moving due west.....hmmm.... wonder if the counter clockwise flow around the TD is actually influencing it. No model has it a threat coming to the coast yet. WB 18Z Humberto tracks. NHC excerpt from 5pm discussion. Only a slight westward adjustment was made to the track forecast. Humberto is moving slightly faster, but westward, near 9 kt. The hurricane is still forecast to move around the subtropical ridge for the next few days before it interacts with the aforementioned trough and accelerates quickly northeastward. The spread in the model track guidance has increased since the last advisory, particularly with regard to how fast Humberto will accelerate northeastward in 4 or 5 days. Confidence in that aspect of the forecast has therefore decreased, even though little change was made to the official forecast. The NHC forecast remains generally based on a blend of the GDMI, the AIGEFS and HCCA.

WB 12Z EPS. Another dry two weeks as it looks like tropical moisture is blocked from coming north. Cool shot coming late week otherwise mild overall.

Light drizzle, perfect for my grass seed.

JB just posted and of course likes the EURO solution of Imelda getting trapped under the ridge and threatening NC northward.

WB 0Z RDPS is closer to the SC coast. Very heavy rains and hurricane force winds close to the coast at the end of the run.

WB 18Z 3K at hr 60 has a hurricane just off the coast of Florida....

18Z WB AI brings Imelda up the Bay next weekend....could be a long week of tracking ahead...

WB 18Z tracks

NHC

Busy doing yard work today, and it looks like I did not jinx the rain for later tomorrow! WB 18Z NBM for the weekend rain.

WB 6Z tracks

I updated the map. There are more members with heavier rain!

WB 0Z GEFS still lot of uncertainty on Imelda to be location and intensity. There are a few members that bring heavy rain to DMV.(some of the rain shown is from the weekend)

0Z Can is also a miss. Rain does not even get to Norfolk....

WB OZ ICON has Imelda Jo be approach SC coast but then spins out to sea. Rain only makes it into SE VA.

18Z AI ensemble does not support its global solution to stall for a few days and then move northward.

WB 18Z EPS is actually a tick north compared to 12Z.

Stalls off SC for several days first...WB 18Z AI.

18Z AI solution brings it north by the end of the week.

If it were winter...

WB 18Z EURO: so it will be interesting to see the adjustment if any over the next few days.

WB 18Z EURO for Saturday

WB 18Z tracks.

Saturday looks wet if you miss out today....WB 18Z GEFS precipitation totals for Saturday.