Weather Will

WB OZ 12K NAM is a bust west of the Bay.

WB latest EPS control; my first big snow is only 30 days away. Lock it in!

WB 0Z NBM

WB 18Z RRFS just came out. Not done at the end of the run...got our Bay Storm...

WB 18Z AI ensemble ticked west.

WB 18Z EURO with another wonky run throwing back some moisture on Monday...actually if this verifies EURO is still king, if not can't really take it seriously 4 days out anymore.

WB 18Z GEFS

WB 18Z AI: bad but actually a tick west compared to 12Z.

WB 18Z ICON is a disaster for western burbs

WB 18Z GFS

For what it is worth, WB 18Z HRRR upper level at 2pm Sat. Looks more like 12Z GFS than 12Z EURO, which is a good thing if you want more rain. In particular, see the upper level low over N Ohio on HRRR and GFS; further east on EURO.

WB 18Z NBM

Yah, I don't understand the EURO evolution very well. It looks wonky with a double low setup and throwing back moisture. AI is a nothing burger west of the Bay. WB 12Z.

Latest EURO AI is also a strung out nothing burger.

WB 12Z EURO, no real phasing, strung out progressive mess compared to GFS.

Didn't the EURO do a horrible job with the last coastal? So far it is meh at 12Z. Nothing like GFS thru hour 69.

It is coming out as slow as my grass seed is germinating.

WB 12Z RRFS: Good test for the new short range; let's see how it does at range. It forecasts a beast. Note ends at 2pm Sunday; still plenty of rain to go.

Note: we are waiting for 12Z.

WB 12Z GEFS individual members: not locked into a heavy rain event west of 95 yet.

WB 12Z GFS: Sunday potentially a real windy, raw, day. A lot more beach erosion as well.

WB 12Z ICON also has widespread heavy rain east of the mountains.

Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Harford-Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Madison-Rappahannock-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Morgan- Berkeley-Jefferson- 106 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northern Maryland, northern and northwest Virginia, and the panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

WB 0Z ICON ticked west again...so did GFS

WB 18Z EPS holds (first picture), its global is a tick east and less intense overall.