Weather Will

NHC at 8pm. Eastern Atlantic is the wave to watch.

Beautiful day, but we need rain again. Drove over the Potomac and Shenandoah today near Harper's Ferry and there are lots of rocks exposed again... trees in my neighborhood are also showing signs of stress.

Yes, especially since I will be on the shore the last two weeks of August. It has been 50 years or so since I had to evacuate while on vacation in OC.

WB 12Z EPS flashing red for Mid Atlantic coast....

WB 18Z GEFS on the 19th has a cluster in the Gulf and off the Atlantic coast heading out to sea. EURO AI ensemble has a similar cluster in Gulf and Atlantic but the Atlantic tracks are closer to the coast.

WB 18Z both EURO AI and GFS have hurricanes near the Gulf/East coast on the 21st.

WB August Euro seasonal (Dec. thru Feb.) update. Lack of cold air is depressing but the Euro always looks warm in the long range. Long wave pattern looks pretty good to me, but I will wait for the experts to interpret.

WB 12Z EPS for late in the weekend, wetter than 0Z. Note: great write up in the tropical thread on this by 007.

Yes, big win for GFS this week, but the EURO is trying to bring up a disturbance late Sunday into Monday now. Will add ensemble when it is out.

Afternoon discussion from Sterling NWS summarizes the uncertainty with the end of the week outlook... Plenty of uncertainty remains in the extended period in regards to the placement and timing of a slow moving (nearly cutoff) upper level trough from the west and an area of low pressure working along the southeast U.S coast. These two features combined with the interaction of broad wedging high pressure off the northern New England coast/southern Canadian Maritimes will influence how much deep tropical moisture is funneling into the region. As of now, have went ahead and increased shower and thunderstorm chances (PoPs 30-50 percent), especially during the afternoon and evening hours Wednesday through Friday as onshore flow increases with the low pressure system just off the NC coast and an inverted trough nearby. Have backed off the rain chances for the upcoming weekend to around 15 to 30 percent. The 12z GFS/GEFS favors low pressure coming up along the coastal Carolinas and into eastern VA/Delmarva Friday into Saturday leading to increased shower and thunderstorm chances during this time. The 12z ECMWF/EPS favors more of the Thursday through Friday timeframe for tropical moisture as a strong baroclinic zone sets up over the region. The ECMWF/EPS is also more aggressive with high pressure wedging itself back into the area for the upcoming weekend allowing precipitation chances to decrease. The 12z Canadian is a blend of the two aforementioned solutions above along with central guidance. It still carries heavy probability of precipitation Thursday into Friday while lingering it into the weekend. With all said, specifics surrounding rain chances, amounts, and wind will continue to remain uncertain until models can get a better grip on the features at play. Increased onshore flow will remain leading to seasonably normal to slightly below normal temperatures and increased cloudiness throughout the extended period. Expect highs in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s.

WB 12Z Ensembles thru Day 6.

WB 12z runs thru Day 6: GFS, Can. and EURO. EURO would have people screaming if this was winter....another example of it folding is occurring.

I do look at ensembles, and maybe you are correct, but I am still annoyed at how good the ensembles looked for a big February snowstorm and everything went poof. Guess that is the way it goes. WB 18Z Euro is wet again west of the bay, and still raining at end of the run on Friday. WB 18Z EURO ensembles are also wetter through Friday afternoon compared to 12Z.

WB 12Z Can. At Day 7...

WB 12Z GFS and EURO precip. through Day 7. EURO can't make up its mind....

WB OZ GFS and EURO now both dry for the week ahead.

WB 18Z NBM. Rain chances low through Wed. Chances increase Th. Ann's Friday.

Great am for a long walk after the searing heat spell. Feels like mid September out there....

.09 this am after zilch yesterday.

It was windy for about an hour and a few sprinkles....

Current observations. Waiting for my 5pm storm.

WB 16Z HRRR has heavier storms in western zones by 6pm.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch up east of the mountains.

NWS said heaviest rain 3-8pm. We will find out soon enough if it is correct...

Saw my first baby furry caterpillar today, severe winter upcoming is a lock!!!