Weather Will

WB 18Z ensembles, toss the GEFS, the EPS mean is meh, I will take the Control.

WB 18Z GEFS…. Can’t make this stuff up….

This year in particular, beyond a few days the models have been horrible. GFS is a waste of time outside 48 hours. Hopefully the GEFS will hold or be an improvement.

WB 6Z GFS will be the first time the GFS verifies at Day 9 this winter…

WB EURO weeklies also like the later part of February and early March.

Waiting for train to DC, few sleet pellets and light flurries on onset of precip at 440 am in SW Frederick.

WB 18z GEFS. Interesting to see about half the members keep it cold beyond February 1.

WB 12Z Ensembles….look good for later part of January.

> 3inches, good run.

WB 12Z EPS….not a bad run…,

WB 12Z GEFS…all after Day 10-But it is still there today….like the fact there are a couple of hits S&E….

WB 18Z GEFS…. Let’s see if we continue to see a slight beat down of the WAR this week for the last week of January period.

Chilly day, seasonably cold evening. Can still get cold enough to snow. Currently 30 degrees.

This year we will need luck to pull a rabbit out of the hat. I think the last week of January into early February there is a shot. WB 6Z GEFS and overnight GEFS extended.

WB 6Z GEFS. I am watching to see if these cold anomalies for late January (Day 13) are still there a week from now or just another mirage….need cold air for snow.

There is 0 doubt in my mind that the base state is warming. I can remember the neighborhood lake in the 70s freezing over on a regular basis. Does not happen anymore. It’s sad, but it is what it is. It just is not helpful to bring it up every time we have a warm stretch or a rain storm in winter in the mid range thread. We will have another blizzard. Whether it is this year or 10 years from now, it will happen. Silver lining this year is the drought busting rains/snows out west. We want snow, but we don’t need it.

This was placed in the banter thread by WeatherShak but shows the average snow stats by decade. There have been other bad decades before anyone knew about global warming. I have lived through three of them so far. Hopefully, we will all live long enough to see good and bad decades. Toughen up people, or move further north.

Agreed…. Including hits to our SOUTH. WB 18Z GEFS

Way too early to throw in the towel for winter. WB Happy Hour GEFS baby improvements….let’s see where we are a week from now. Too far out to get crazy on every run.

The definition of insanity is repeating the same thing but expecting a different result… Let’s see if we get something to track inside five days…nothing in the next five…. Enjoy the chilly holiday weekend!

Remember expectations 10-14 days ago and where we are with the storm this weekend. Hopefully the last 7-10 days of January will deliver. but we are still too far away for any details….HOPEFULLY we will get some of that record cold in Siberia to come over this way….WB EURO Asian cold

Patterns like to repeat in winter…we got a cold shot around Christmas, we will be due for another around peak climo for snow so we now need some luck…

WB OZ EPS looks like it has kicked the can down the road a few days until the last 8-9 days of January with enough cold air to support snow. I guess we will know in a week if it holds or is another mirage….some big hits start to appear in this time frame. Latest WB GEFS extended mean for this timeframe is also showing some potential with enough cold air….have a good day everyone…

I request that managers clean it up in here please….

Can we start a November 2023 thread? 18z GFS is horrible through January. WB long range Canadian has a normal to below normal Thanksgiving with above normal precipitation.