Weather Will

Little off topic, but as a DC native, who had to rely on the tv mets before there was internet, I would go with Shutt’s forecast over Kammerer’s any day of the week.

WB latest extended GEFS 7 day period before Christmas. Would note the cool down can be seen starting around the 16th. So there is still hope. I understand the pessimism, but White Christmas is rare around here: ### the Channel 4 forecast, I will go with Channel 9: Overall, white Christmases are rare in the region. According to the official definition of "white Christmas" from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a Christmas can only be considered white if there is one inch of snow on the ground by 7 a.m. on Dec. 25. Looking at data going back to 1884, snow has only fallen on Christmas Day in D.C. nine times. That means there is only a 7% chance of a white Christmas in D.C. in 2022. There have been 19 occasions when snow was on the ground in D.C. for Christmas since 1888. In 1962, D.C. saw the most snowfall on Dec. 25 with 5.4 inches. Our WUSA9 Weather Watch team predicts the first measurable snowfall in the DMV will be Dec. 18.

What am I missing here, we need the PNA to cooperate by not being at minus 2-4 deviation when we have a strong -AO and -NAO. We are going below freezing tonight and tomorrow night with a - 1 to -2 PNA. The EPS goes strongly negative with the PNA this week and then is forecasted to head back toward neutral for a sustained period of time within the next two weeks. Let’s see if that timeframe holds.

WB 12Z EPS teleconnection forecasts. IF CORRECT, the PNA heads toward neutral by the week before Christmas and the NAO, EPO, and AO look good during the same timeframe….let’s see if the PNA starts heading toward neutral by the end of the upcoming work week. Maybe we are going to get a Christmas miracle.

WB 6Z torch v 12z cold-slight differences ;). It is clear that you have to take the global models with 7 grains of salt in this pattern at the end of their ranges.

We will know in a couple weeks if the GFS is the model that has the best handle on this pattern. If there is no cold air by the 15-20th timeframe it becomes Torch King or December Destroyer….

WB 6Z GFS temp anomalies in the last 5 days of run compared to GEFS, toss the GFS. I am not an expert so I am trying to keep this simple for me. Give me freezing temperatures and then I will start tracking storms, Too busy to track a bunch of depressing rain…

One indicator if things are going toward the look we need for December snowstorm will be if the forecasted PNA move towards neutral begins on schedule by the end of this upcoming work week….0Z EPS.

Yes patience, WB EPS 500 MB anomalies first 5 days compared to last 5 days of its run. Hopefully this look for the 13-18 will still be there as we go through this week. Still possible for a mid December to remember….

WB 12Z EPS. You need cold for snow. Next 7 days won’t cut it, second 7 day period we need to watch. Hopefully by this time next week we will see a threat in sight.

Yah, potential is there. West Virginia gets buried by the EURO control run with a 968 low in central MD bringing us heavy rain. At least it is not boring….stuff to monitor within December .

It is not bitterly cold, but WB 12Z GEFS does cool down toward the end of the run.

I am setting my expectations low because although the ensembles look good, you have to keep climo in mind for December: A 1-3 inch storm region wide to get on the board this winter and temps in the 30s on Christmas would be a great start to the winter. If we get better, I will be pleasantly surprised. But one should not set the bar too high in December….

The ensemble snow probability maps inside 10 days are not impressive yet, but I will post them if they start to light up….

WB 12Z EPS has PNA heading in the positive direction and getting to neutral by the 13th….hopefully that verifies.

WB 0Z EPS for the 13th

WB 18Z GFS…v. 0Z variability continues but this is why I get little sleep during tracking season….

WB 12Z EPS is not the GFS toaster oven…

WB 12Z GEFS….much better. I never said the GFS was correct, but we all know that the warmest and least snowy model usually is unfortunately…

WB 12Z GFS does not look good compared to yesterday. Lot of volatility in Week of Dec 12.

WB 12Z GFS looks much better than 6Z….I am thinking that is why it was so quiet in here earlier…

I personally have to be reminded….I am not a patient individual….

While we patiently wait, I thought this video from NBC 4 Meteorologist Ryan Miller may help to keep expectations in check with regards to December snow… When Will D.C. See Snow? Here's a Look at Winter Trends https://www.nbcwashington.com/weather/when-will-d-c-see-snow-heres-a-look-at-winter-trends/3218470/

Cold shot in the Dec 8-9 period could be the one to set us up for a wintry event. The weekend of the 9-12 period that Cape has referenced appears to be our first chance of accumulating snow east of the mountains. Too early to pinpoint a particular wave. Initially, I had been looking at Dec 5-6 period but it looks like that is too early.

I am not saying cancel December but that patience will be needed….6Z WB EPS this week (which no one saw as cold and stormy) will verify and not be…