Weather Will

Brief shower about 1:30 but squall line approaching. heavy rain now but no wind. Lame severe thunderstorm.

Thanks…. real model fight going on inside 3 days.

Does the EURO have access to the NOAA invest flight sounding data? It still insists west coast of FL will be raked while GFS spares the west coast… WB 6Z

WB 18Z GFS v EURO HR 90

We have TD 9…excerpt NHC discussion 5 am The current motion right now is estimated to be off to the west-northwest at 290/12 kt. In the short-term, the depression is forecast to bend back more westward as a narrow east-to-west oriented mid-level ridge builds in behind the weakness left behind from Fiona. The current eastward displaced convection may also tug the broad center in that direction as well. However, after 48 hours, this ridge will start to decay as a longwave deep-layer trough over the eastern United States begins to amplify southward. This synoptic evolution should then allow the cyclone to begin gaining latitude, though the exact timing at which this occurs could be somewhat related to the vertical depth of the cyclone and how it interacts with a weak upper-level trough expected to be over the far western Caribbean in the day 3-4 time-frame. The model guidance early on is in fairly good agreement, but larger across-track spread begins to take shape by 48 hours, with the GFS and its ensemble mean located further south and west, and with the ECMWF and its ensemble mean located further north and east. The initial track forecast has decided to split the difference between these two model suites, and lies fairly close to the consensus aids TVCN and HCCA. There is still a healthy amount of uncertainty in the track forecast at the day 4-5 timeframe.

WB 12Z TS Euro probs.

I am hoping for remnants to give us a steady day of rain, no widespread damage. I don’t wish a 100 mph plus storm with widespread destruction and flooding on anyone although I have to admit a blizzard this winter is fine with me….

Latest EPS says nothing to worry about in the Mid Atlantic….

Light rain, I will take whatever drops will fall…

WB 6Z… significant difference in track even in the short range still to be resolved….GFS v. EURO.

Hermine soon to be in 10 days…..take a guess WB 0Z (actually EURO and GFS pretty close at Day 10 but GFS falls apart this run to our SE later in the run with only glancing blow.)

WB 12Z EPS

WB 6z GFS..,still in fantasy range but..

WB 12Z EPS

Correct…. WB 12Z EURO Day 7

WB 12Z GFS v EURO at Day 5. Fiona misses first trough on EURO.

WB 0Z ensemble prob runs. All have shifted east in last 24 hours.

While the latest deterministic models take Fiona out to sea, the WB EURO ensembles still show a spread at 0Z.

WB 10Z HRRR shows locally heavy storms in the mid afternoon through pm rush hour. Supports the flood watch.

WB 12Z GFS next 3 days

Yup…cut the grass warning by Saturday evening in effect…WB 0Z EURO.

WB 6Z GFS and 0Z EURO… Cut the lawn before Sunday evening…

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of DC, Maryland and northern Virginia, including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Cecil, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford and Southern Baltimore. In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax and Western Loudoun. * WHEN...From 4 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - An area of low pressure is expected to develop along a slow moving boundary draped across the region Tuesday morning through early Tuesday afternoon. Heavy showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to drop 2 to 3 inches across much of the watch area, with isolated higher amounts up to 5 inches possible in the heaviest cells. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

WB 12Z 3K NAM…. Nice to see something not falling apart as it rolls in later today.

WB 6Z EURO