So with late week falling off the table rapidly that takes us to March 12. The 12Z WB GEPS and GEFS does look good for the following week, but the GEFS seems to lose the cold anomalies at the end of that period around the 21st so that may be it. GEPS looks like cold will hold beyond the third week of the month.
12Z ICON gives us another way to fail. Transfer to the south and too far off coast….But I would rather fail this way and like the south trend in transfer. It is progressive because there is another wave now kicking it out…update: second wave washes out to the south. I don’t think the ICON can handle the pattern. But SER is not the issue this run.