Weather Will

Haven’t had a big Easter gathering with the family for 3 years. 12Z EURO

WB 0Z EPS looks wet with temps seasonable next 10 days.

Not cold enough as would be expected this time of year, but it is chilly and there is a low to our south. Actually pretty good forecast 2 weeks ago for an unsettled week this week.

Amazing period of early Spring cold. Went for a lunch time walk with air temps hovering around freezing with a cold breeze. Sunny afternoon, but the sun did not feel warm…impressive!!!

I will be posting tropical storm probabilities soon enough…

WB 18Z GFS wants nothing to do with snow next week….

WB 12Z GEFS, early next week…

The Day 10 period is the time to watch. There is some EPS support for a coastal. WB 18Z GFS and 12Z EPS.

Still looking for my early April blizzard…fringed with P21 WB 6Z GEFS. If we can post weird faces, I can post snow maps.

WB 18Z GEFS: note % is for 6 inches…

WB 6Z GFS through Day 7

WB 12Z EURO at Day 10….pretty intense anomalies being forecasted.

Been gardening all day….check back in midweek…models have been horrible outside a few days anyway…

WB 6Z GEFS does give some support to the deterministic model.

Sorry about that….

WB 6Z GFS still shows potential for late March early. April period. TGIF!!! Of note, is that at various runs Both EUROPEAN and GFS have been showing this potential.

Cape will be mad at me but WB 12Z EURO control has a DC bullseye..

WB 12Z ensembles….trough in the east next weekend, will it produce a big rain/snow storm? TBD.

WB 0Z GFS along without the digital snow map…two waves.

Do ensembles count?

WB 12Z ensembles, weak signal for the last weekend of March.

What is causing this? Never seen it before… Low Water Advisory URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 952 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 ANZ630>632-635>638-650-652-142200- /O.CON.KAKQ.LO.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-220314T2300Z/ Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA- Chesapeake Bay from Windmill Point to New Point Comfort VA- Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA- Rappahannock River from Urbanna to Windmill Point-York River- James River from Jamestown to the James River Bridge- James River from James River Bridge to Hampton Roads Bridge- Tunnel- Coastal waters from Fenwick Island DE to Chincoteague VA out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Chincoteague to Parramore Island VA out 20 nm- 952 AM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022 ...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Abnormally low water levels. * WHERE...Rappahannock River from Urbanna to Windmill Point, York River and James River from Jamestown to the James River Bridge. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Below normal water levels will result in hazardous navigating conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due to below normal water levels.

The point of the articles below is that it can still snow into April, not that it will. Pattern last week of March will have to be monitored. Source: Washington Post From the start of snow records in the late 1880s, fairly regular April snow events continued until 1924. During that period, 2 storms were particularly noteworthy: (1) the April 3, 1915 Easter weekend storm, which left 3.5 inches in D.C., but 15-20 inches in a swath from Philadelphia to Dover, DE; and (2) the April Fool’s Storm of April 1, 1924, which dumped 5-6 inches of snow on the Nation’s Capital and 9 inches in Baltimore. The latter was D.C.’s greatest official April snowstorm and appeared to be the culmination of regular April snow events in Washington. Since then, there’s been only about one per decade. Also of note: On March 29, 1942 11.5 inches was measured at Reagan National. The storm produced over 2 feet of snow in parts of Maryland and northwestern Virginia. That snowstorm also ranks as Baltimore’s seventh-largest storm on record; 22 inches was measured.

Couple of big hits on the ensembles during this time frame. At the very least, there looks like there will be a true Break from Spring the last weekend of March.

If it were not late March.. 12Z ensembles CMC and EPS,