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Weather Will

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Everything posted by Weather Will

  1. Weather Will
    Off today…
  2. Weather Will
    12Z Euro still figuring out where the big storm will be….source WB.
  3. Weather Will
    Have to just look at trends outside Day 5 on globals. Nice trends over last day, source 0Z Euro WB
  4. Weather Will
    OZ GEFS at Day 10. Source WB, nice trend over the last day, hope it continues!
  5. Weather Will
    Lawyer in me; giving them credit for their maps.
  6. Weather Will
    Th good news is that we have a chance. The teleconnections, MJO, and stratwarm are looking good…but we need some luck. I am being a realist. Give us a specific threat inside 10 days that is being depicted by the 3 global models and then I will jump full in. Otherwise, in the spirit of Lent, call me the Doubting Thomas.
  7. Weather Will
    7 day height means. If we are not tracking something by the end of next work week, our Hail Mary play is in trouble.
  8. Weather Will
    10 day snow means ending 18th. We still have a ways to go on GEFS. WB 0Z EPS, 0Z GEPS, and 6Z GEFS.
  9. Weather Will
    My no expert take is that the beginning of our window has shifted from the 9th to the 11-12th timeframe. it would be nice to see that window hold over the next few days and not slip too much further. We are running out of time…
  10. Weather Will
    WB 6Z GEFS has trended in the right direction for next weekend compared to yesterday at 6Z.
  11. Weather Will
    Bottom line is we don’t have a specific threat yet within 10 days.
  12. Weather Will
    Good night….Oz compared to 12Z. At least the EURO caved more quickly this time.
  13. Weather Will
    Not good…WB 0Z Euro Day 8 compared to 12Z.
  14. Weather Will
    WB 0Z Euro compared to 12Z at Day 7
  15. Weather Will
    If I were awake I would not post it.
  16. Weather Will
    I am being sincere. When you compare the GFS ensemble hour 144 to EPS 144, please explain why you think they are that different. I just don’t see it, I would like to understand.
  17. Weather Will
    I am no expert. I just don’t see an appreciable difference at Day 6 between the 2 models at 18Z. When I compare the 12Z EPS to the 18Z EPS it is a tick different with more trough in the west….is it noise or a trend? We will know at 0Z.
  18. Weather Will
    Unfortunately I agree…
  19. Weather Will
    Correct; 144 is Day 6. Do those maps look much different?
  20. Weather Will
    How are they much different at Day 6?
  21. Weather Will
    WB 18Z EPS v. GEFS
  22. Weather Will
    Hopefully it will be the GFS’s turn to cave over the next few days.
  23. Weather Will
    WB 18Z GFS and EURO at 90 about the same.
  24. Weather Will
    My point is if it can flip in 6 hours at Day 15, it can do the same at Day 10. We will know soon enough.
  25. Weather Will
    The WB GFS is flipping around at range. Look at the end of its run now v 12Z. Patience is needed. We just don’t know…
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