Weather Will

WB 0Z ensembles for Day 11 storm Tues 15th. Again, which has been the period of interest for a big one since mid February.

WB 0Z EPS for Wed.

WB 18Z EPS Day 6

Yup…will see if we can get a storm to trend our way over the next week. The week of the 13th has potential but very chaotic with individual ensembles keying in on different waves. Jury out on that week so I am focusing on the day 6 wave for now.

WB 6Z EPS Day 6. First Hail Mary storm….late next work week.

WB 18Z GEFS….brutal day….I order P12 for everyone….GN

In addition to cold air, I will post the percentage maps once a day…WB 12Z ensembles Here we go….Note all if this is after Day 9.

WB 12Z GFS, plenty of digital cold NEXT weekend through the 18th… don’t plant annuals yet….snow hopes still alive as long as there is some sustained cold.

Pretty good agreement among all three global ensembles for around mid month…WB 12Z

Mid March Hail Mary still possible….been seeing it off and on in the GEFS extended, the weeklies and now the ensembles since the VD time period. Have a good week everyone!

WB 12Z GEPS has a few good looks the next two weeks…

WB 12Z GFS….

WB 6Z GFS for Day 5. Note: GEFS support is minimal.

WB 12z GEFS. Give it another week to see if we see more positive trends but then my heat mats are going into storage until next winter….

WB 0Z GEFS teleconnections. No PNA help, but other indices still give us hope the week of March 7….

GFS has a wave bringing snow the week of March 7 for the last couple of runs. My Hail Mary storm…

From NWS Sterling Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Harford-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 342 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch, with locally two tenths of an inch in the higher elevations. Snow and sleet accumulations less than a half inch are also possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northern Maryland and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday.

WB 6Z NBM ice accumulation. Most of this accumulates after sunset tonight and ends before sunrise Friday. Temps hovering around freezing overnight but rise above freezing by 7am Friday to the MD/PA border.

0Z WB 3K NAM

Current temp in Frederick is 72. 18Z NAM forecast was 59….. 12Z GFS 52, EURO 61. So colder air is behind schedule so far.

WB 18Z 3K NAM comes in later after sunset DC north and is still over by 4am Friday even in Northern areas. Above freezing everywhere by 9 am Friday.

On a positive note, 12Z WB GFS does have a storm in fantasy land….this is within the seven day period GEFS extended has liked for a couple of days.

Maybe your right….or maybe if they show nothing positive I should just refrain from posting them…. Ignorance is bliss, they say!

WB 12Z GEFS thru Day 7, I just laugh at this point….patterns do repeat themselves….we need a superstorm to shake things up!!!!

I have not given up on winter. Posting about my Hail Mary mid March storm for a couple of days….I admit I have seen too many head fakes this year when everyone gets excited with a good midday run. I enjoyed the cold in January even without much snow in southwest Frederick County. Reminded me of many years back in the 70s and proved that we can still have a cold month in winter. I like to think my posts are more factual than negative but the truth hurts sometimes…