Weather Will
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Everything posted by Weather Will
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WB 18Z GFS….still some sorting out to do problem is we will need a perfect surface track and probably 500 MB further south to get it to work with marginal cold air at best.
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You definitely see more cold air in the pattern continuing to grow in the later part of the ensemble period. WB 12Z GEFS.
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This is the first storm to track in 2 months which is great, but almost all of the modeling does not give us below normal temps until the week following this storm. And we need well below normal in March.
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Latest MJO. Still phase 8 bound….
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WB 6Z Euro EPS compared to 12Z yesterday at Day 6.
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WB 0Z EURO 7pm Friday compared to yesterday at 0Z….Slides to the south this run….cave to the GFS but too far south…still in the game; on to 12Z-encouraging run!
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WB 0Z EURO Definitely more like GFS this run….7 am Friday
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Comparing 7pm Th….
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WB 0Z EURO 1 am Th compared to 0Z yesterday.
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WB 18Z GEFS, best run in a long time if not all winter….
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WB 18Z GEFS
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Agreed, does not mean we will get snow, but we also do windy and chilly well in the DMV…
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WB latest EURO weeklies, widespread cold by mid month.
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It is beautiful outside folks, except of course for the 19 fools in this forum! Take a walk between runs.
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Maybe late next week will be the appetizer before the mid March blizzard.
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WB 12Z GFS
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WB 6Z v 12Z next….maybe I wrote off the run too soon.
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And the latest MJO forecast still says we are heading into Phase 8. Big difference in the right direction from a week ago for a change…
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In the mid March period, the latest WB GEFS extended looks pretty good…
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WB 6Z GFS….snows for 24 hours starting next Friday afternoon.
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WB latest extended GEFS coming in colder for mid month…
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Then what mechanism/forcing moves the SER? The strat. warm?
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Let’s see if the MJO is really going to head into Phase 8. I think that is the shakeup we need to move this pattern. If it stays in the null, we stay in the null for snow….
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At this point, give me a 6 plus inch storm or I can wait until next year…slim chances at this point but not zero…WB 0Z probs…will see what 0Z tonight looks like…
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WB 0Z EPS….one should be pessimistic this season for a late snowstorm but the ten day system track is still uncertain.
