Good thing I said I would not pay attention to the ensembles anymore for the weekend storm. GEFS ticked south and east…and not as intense.
We are still a couple days out from the final solution but best GFS happy hour run in a long time…
Got to smell the rain to get the best snow….
With our luck this winter, there will be heavy snow in Pittsburgh on Sunday and 70 here with thunderstorms but we need a bombshell low with marginal temperatures…. Livin on the edge!!!!
At this point, I am watching the Global models. The ensembles carry less weight as we move under five days. At least we have something to track other than 300 hour 500 MB maps, and speculative stratwarm and MJO effects in three weeks.
Would not give up yet, but with this progressive flow, and temp profile need perfection or forget it. With 5 days to go still in the game…500mb are pretty close…
WB 0Z GFS…can we thread the needle and see a little snow on Saturday night??? Conservative snow depth map says rate dependent and favors NW areas. Surface temps marginal.