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Weather Will

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Everything posted by Weather Will

  1. Latest MJO forecast continues to go in a favorable direction into Phase 8.
  2. WB latest GEFS extended continues to like the mid March period through at least the 17th.
  3. WB 18Z GEFS. Day 10-15 period is in line with the long range teleconnections being more favorable. We will see if this holds…
  4. Have to keep an eye on the Day 8 storm….there is enough cold air not that far away anymore….WB 18Z GFS compared to 0Z yesterday.
  5. WB 12Z EPS 5 day anomaly is actually a slight improvement over yesterday 12Z.
  6. WB 12Z GEFS….two 1 in 30 chances one at the end of month and another at Day 12…
  7. We need to see if the negative WPO is going to be real around March 5….if it does we should see some ridging out west and the cold should move SE. WB GEFS and GEPS. I don’t think that has happened all winter….
  8. If I had to pick the period for our last snowfall chance based on WB GEFS extended it will be between the 10-17th.
  9. The great pattern shifts have been 10 to 14 days away all winter….latest WB GFS extended teleconnections along with SPV and MJO give us the Hail Mary. We will see but the ensembles are just getting into the early part of this period so every 6 hour run does not mean much at this point. Snow means are bad the next 2 weeks.
  10. True, but I have been posting other kinds of maps too…. There are some some key differences within upcoming window, the strat. warm, some signs of a favorable MJO, and a negative NAO and WPO. If we get the PNA to get out of record low territory and a little luck we could get a crocus crushing event.
  11. Never give up!!!! See what happens with a couple of waves if the SER relaxes enough for the cold air to move down the coast….WB 18Z GFS.
  12. Something is happening, hot air is blowing out of my air vents for the first time this month….I guess it is cold outside.
  13. Yah, I don’t have high hopes although the latest WB GEFS extended looked better for the mid March period.
  14. WB GFS MJO forecast continues to trend better for early March. Latest compared to earlier this week.
  15. WB 18Z GFS. Swings are wild in the long range….March 1 at 1pm compared to 12Z
  16. Stratwarm is definitely living up to its name on March 1 as we approach 80 degrees on WB 12Z GFS.
  17. WB 6Z GEFS…and latest GFS MJO does not go into Phase 6 the first week of March. So for at least 6 hours, still in the game the late February/ early March period.
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