cptcatz

Is it me or is it it trying to form a center of rotation here to the north of Hispaniola? If it does spin something up there, that would put it a good bit north of modeling and have it over hot water for much longer than anticipated.

More like 97L has been designated. But yeah, nice to finally have the extra tracking tools.

Euro now caved to GFS, has it lingering over florida for a few days as a weak tropical storm. Looking forward to some good rain here in Boca Raton.

Convection is finally starting to bubble. I think the thing to watch here is where does it start to condense? Euro has consistently been showing the center to stay well north of the islands while GFS has consistently been showing the center going straight through the islands. Looking at this picture, I think the GFS may be correct...

And yet no support whatsoever with the GFS ensembles...

Euro ensembles are trending more aggressive..

Back to back Euro runs now showing development around South Florida first few days of August.

Just want to respond to all the above posts saying "you people" canceling the season. All I'm saying is I don't see the high number of named storms verifying based on the activity so far. The seasons with a lot of named storms have a lot of slop in June and July taking up names which we don't have this season. I'm not at all saying things won't ramp up quickly and we could get a big ACE season. The only person canceling this season is ldub which if you've been around here long enough you know that happens every single year from that person and you should just disregard every post that comes from him/her.

Sticking with what I said here. I don't see getting past like 16-17 named storms.

I get the hyperactive season with big hurricanes in ASO but I just don't see how we get to 25 named storms with 3 in the books and a dead July on the horizon. Going into August, 2005 had 7 named storms and 2020 had 9. To get those big named storm numbers, you need a lot of June/July slop.

Recon just picked up its first hurricane force wind at flight level (66 knots). Satellite also showing big convection popping up around the eye...

I think you are analyzing this the wrong way. Again, the storm isn't a sentient being. Everything that has happened is because of physical occurrences that happened in the atmosphere. I don't think you can even say "this storm has done well in a high shear environment". There's a scientific answer to that, although I'm not sure what it is. Maybe the shear simply wasn't as strong as scientists think it was, or there's some other reason why this specific storm wasn't impacted by that specific shear in that specific environment. But all those specifics has nothing to do with what's happening right now a thousand miles away from that previous occurrence.

But the center is now back over water and it's a pretty good bit east.

Don't forget the two 2020 Greek storms that did this same thing. Delta went over the Yucatan and weakened to a cat 1, Zeta went over the Yucatan and weakened to a tropical storm, and both made landfall in Louisiana as major hurricanes...

Impressive dropsonde from a storm that was supposed to be weakening

Still impressive dropsonde on the northern eyewall. Jamaica is in for it as it looks like it will get hit with that northern side.

96L is still showing a nice big area of convection and models have it developing in the Gulf. Might need to keep an eye on that.

Not sure what you're talking about. The low lying areas of Kingston are incredibly surge prone to this exact track. If the north side of the storm passes over Kingston, it will pile up the water right into this bay.

Could be some catastrophic storm surge in Jamaica. Doesn't matter if it weakens at all at this point. The wall of water this thing is pushing on its north side is going to be massive. Absolute worst case scenario if Jamaica gets the north side.

Impressive dropsonde. Not sure I remember seeing a 170 knot gust in quite a while.

That's what people probably said about Dennis in 2005. Then Emily said hold my beer. Then Katrina said hold my beer. Then Rita said hold my beer. Then Wilma said hold my beer. Might we get one to beat Wilma?

130 knot FL wind on that northeast pass, pressure dropping. Oh boy...

955 mb on this new recon pass. NW winds no higher but we'll need to see the NE pass

Euro initializes at 996, crosses the islands at 990, continues to deepen in the eastern Caribbean reaching Jamaica at a staggering 966, and then weakens. This is similar to what Icon showed. The question is are these models correct with how conducive for strengthening the eastern Caribbean is? Both models showed it deepening by 30 mb in that time. Could we be seeing a 930 mb storm near Jamaica?

It's clearly north of due west. The current 5-hour satelite loop on TT shows the eye starting at 10.5 N and ends at 11 N. At the same time it went 1.5 degrees latitude. So the slope of the path is roughly 1/3. That track would miss Barbados and probably just south of the Saint Vincent island, bringing it through one of the small Grenadines islands.