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cptcatz

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Everything posted by cptcatz

  1. cptcatz
    Majority of the 06z EPS members still keeping it quite low...
  2. cptcatz
    The last three GFS runs all show this system that looks like it breaks off of Sam as it passes the Bahamas, which then moves west over Florida, intensifies in the gulf, then moves back east over Florida again. The 00z run drops it down to 978 mb.
  3. cptcatz
    Looks like that's that for this one. Models showing yet another wave developing behind this one though...
  4. cptcatz
    18z GFS is trending significantly south and west...
  5. cptcatz
    Getting some Irma vibes here...
  6. cptcatz
    GEFS 06z compared to 12z...
  7. cptcatz
    The bulk of the 06z Euro ensembles are still keeping it southward on a track into the islands. Euro still seems to be the outlier on the southern track though. Euro also seems to not have been doing well with these MDR storms prior to development.
  8. cptcatz
    CMC is still showing 95L developing near the Bahamas. If it can somehow find low shear in that area then it's still on the table. Still over a week out so lots could change.
  9. cptcatz
    I think it's time to strip the central Atlantic of the MDR name and give it to the western Caribbean/southern Gulf. That's the new Main Development Region.
  10. cptcatz
    GEFS now showing a lot of members bringing into the Caribbean or just north of the islands. WAY too early to call this a fish storm.
  11. cptcatz
    I think the worst case scenario would be for it to stay weak through the Atlantic which means it treks due west and then gets to the Bahamas/Florida Straits area where it then rapidly intensifies. Something along the lines of Dorian, Andrew, or 1935 Labor Day...
  12. cptcatz
    It'll be interesting to see how the back half compares to last season. Last season had FIVE major hurricanes form AFTER October 1, three of them making landfall as a major, and a fourth making landfall just shy of a major. That would be crazy active for an entire season, let alone just October and November.
  13. cptcatz
    Yeah I wouldn't give up on 95L. The models showing a weak storm now may be bad in the long term. Instead of intensifying in the eastern Atlantic and turning out to sea, the weak wave may now move towards the Caribbean or Bahamas. The Bahamas/Florida Straits area has a long history of blowing up storms very quickly...
  14. cptcatz
    Yeah go back and look at the 2017 thread. He said Harvey was a bust after it degenerated into an open wave and then said the rest of the season was going to be inactive...
  15. cptcatz
    Not to mention with the usually bearish NHC forecasting 65mph which means we could easily see a hurricane landfall as long as the center stays east.
  16. cptcatz
    No it's not. Not sure why you have that feeling. We had a long tracking Elsa in early July, a typical lull in later July, and then pretty much non stop activity since early August including three majors and two landfalling majors. How much more could you ask for by the season midpoint?
  17. cptcatz
    Looks like Euro wants to recurve this wave
  18. cptcatz
  19. cptcatz
    Meh. Not the greatest signal for peak season...
  20. cptcatz
    No. Hence the Sandy impacts in the northeast were attributed to Sandy and the Ida impacts will be attributed to Ida.
  21. cptcatz
    About time we get a good GFS fantasycane...
  22. cptcatz
    Interesting development of 91L. The eastern convection from yesterday has fizzled but new broad convection has popped up on the western side and just recently it looks like more is bubbling up right in the center. If this can tighten into a core it would have quite a bit of Gulf to work with before Florida...
  23. cptcatz
    Regardless, looking at where the convection is right now, you may get some nice storms where it ends up going.
  24. cptcatz
    91L is firing off some decent convection and it looks way more south/east than where NHC is showing it. Florida might need to watch this.
  25. cptcatz
    GFS and Euro are trash in the long term. How do you still base your opinion on their 10-15 day forecast? It makes you look like an idiot after you're wrong time after time.
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