cptcatz

It's an interesting conversation. Your question of why would models be any good a predicting medium to long range cyclogenesis with accuracy could be answered with "why shouldn't they?" These models are run on some of the largest supercomputers in the world using so many data points from satelites, balloons, airplanes, bouys, etc., and they still can't figure out what's happening in only a few days?

This second post just proves my first post so well. Only two days ago models were pointing at no more storms on the horizon and September ending with 0/3/3 (the 5am NHC forecast on Sunday did not forecast Fiona to be a MH). Only two days later, we are sitting at 1/3/4, with another likely MH forming next week in the Caribbean, and possibly another TS forming near Africa, and could be ending the month at 2/4/6. Just goes to show how crap the models are at medium/long range cyclogenesis.

Sorry to get off topic but I don't think anything will ever beat Irma from that perspective. That was consistent model runs for like a week all showing ~880 mb landfalls.

Seems euro has been too far west all season and is always correcting back east to align with the GFS. If that's the case here, looking like the eastern Gulf Coast or Florida peninsula would be the target zone.

I love watching tornado videos. But there's a big difference between tornado coverage and hurricane coverage. You can't get inside a tornado. You can get inside a hurricane.

I don't mean to downplay the catastrophic flooding that is occuring in Puerto Rico but from an armchair meteorologist perspective, flooding isn't that interesting to me. Hurricanes interest me because of the wind. I eagerly await Josh's videos, but honestly an 85 mph cat 1 strike isn't the most interesting.

GFS showing Matthew 2.0 except this time riding up inside the coast instead of off the coast. A MH eye riding up through Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties would have to be one of the costliest and most destructive paths a storm could take.

0/3/3 on September 18 with nothing else on the models through the end of the month is a tad above average in number of hurricanes and a tad below average in number of named storms. I wouldn't call that "active". Not to mention the uninteresting paths of all three.

Seems like the active and quiet years go in cycles. We had a nice stretch of active years. This might be the start of a quiet stretch...

Yeah this Wilma/Matthew/Michael/Sandy track is what we're all looking to at the turn of the month. CV season was a flop, bring on the western Caribbean season!

It's interesting that it does like nice on satellite yet recon is finding a mess with high pressures and unimpressive winds. Maybe once it gets organized it will intensify quickly?

I don't think it's as low probability as you say. Fiona is a mess and significantly further south than models thought right now. It would need to make a big turn to the northwest right now if it's gonna miss the 10,000 foot mountains of Hispaniola. Most euro ensembles bring it right over the spine of the island as opposed to the GEFS members which bring it over the eastern lowlands or even the Mona Passage. On the nowcasting, I'd keep looking at how far south and west it gets before making the turn north towards Hispaniola. Could get interesting.

We really won't know the long term track until we know how it gets past Hispaniola. The models are pretty much all showing it sliding just east of the mountain range with minimal disruption. If these models were 20 miles west, it would mean an entirely different outcome.

Looks like more members of the 06z EPS stay weak after Hispaniola and continue northwest. Getting shredded by the mountains would be the best chance for a US strike...

06z Euro goes ham dropping the pressure from 990 to 979 in the last three hours right after coming off of Hispaniola. I assume this would shoot out to sea.

18z Euro ends with the center crossing Hispaniola on the eastern side of the island which is relatively flat, as opposed to 12z run which crossed right overv the mountains. If it can get through the Mona Passage or just skirt the lowlands of the island, that would make a huge difference in the outcome. You can see here what that tiny difference makes.

Euro and GFS both playing catchup to CMC lol

Not sure what difference this makes but the strongest convection has moved a full degree south over the last few hours. At the beginning of the TT loop (16:05z) the strongest convection was between 16-17°N. At the end of the loop (20:55z) the strongest convection was between 15-16°N.

I'll give models credit for telling us where an established storm will go in the short term. But it's pretty crazy how bad they are at forecasting cyclogenesis. I wonder what the scientists/programmers can do to help that.

Ok maybe I spoke too soon on GFS taking it OTS

12z runs we now have GFS and Icon curving OTS east of the Bahamas while CMC brings it south of Florida into the Gulf...

Should be an interesting forecast discussion with so much uncertainty in these models.

Looking really close to a TC if not there already

Upgraded to code orange. P.s. for those that can't post files, you need to go into your settings, click attachments, and delete your old ones. You have a storage limit and have run out of space.

18z Euro and EPS getting interesting