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cptcatz

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Everything posted by cptcatz

  1. cptcatz
    Anyone know when the next low level recon is?
  2. cptcatz
    Someone tell me if I'm crazy but I'm seeing the LLC now moving just EAST of due south...
  3. cptcatz
    The last few frames of satellite looks like the center is moving due south and convection is trying to pop right there.
  4. cptcatz
    It's going to be a top heavy storm with all the bad weather to the north. Regardless of what happens Orlando is gonna get some nasty weather. Canceling your trip depends on what you plan on doing there.
  5. cptcatz
    06Z GFS shows landfall in Boca Raton (where I live) at 984mb vs Euro shows landfall in West Palm Beach at 998mb. If you split the difference you get landfall in Boynton Beach at 991mb.
  6. cptcatz
    At least the track is pretty locked in. At this point in Ian's life the GFS was showing a panhandle/Alabama storm while Euro/UK were showing Naples to Tampa.
  7. cptcatz
    I think it's a given that Wednesday and Thursday will be a washout at the very least. There could definitely be bigger issues if this thing is on the stronger side of the models...
  8. cptcatz
    ^I suppose a 977mb storm would be the worst case scenario for a mid-November sloppy subtropical system... Anyways, the ensembles are just as bullish as the GFS operational.
  9. cptcatz
    All year GFS and Euro have been meeting half way. Now with GFS showing 982mb and Euro showing 1006mb, mark my words here that it will be 994mb.
  10. cptcatz
    All models are in good agreement of some kind of sloppy system heading west over the Bahamas and into Florida next week. GFS with a 991mb into Jacksonville.
  11. cptcatz
    So I'm counting like 8 tropical storms on the 06z GFS?
  12. cptcatz
    Although euro doesn't show anything, EPS is as bullish it's been with this afternoon's run. There's a few really strong ones in there...
  13. cptcatz
    I want to believe this could happen but after the shenanigans the GFS has played before in the Caribbean this season, I'm not gonna get on board until there's other model agreement. Icon is on board but I'll need more than just that.
  14. cptcatz
    06z still moving up in time with a 990mb at h156, 966mb at h180, and 939mb at h216. 12z ICON is on board but not much else.
  15. cptcatz
    Looks like the season is winding down. Not looking like a backloaded season. I think we can officially call it a forecast bust.
  16. cptcatz
    I'm saying that the NHC should replace the cone graphic with a SIMILAR graphic to this one which shows the probability of significant impacts (whether it be wind, rain, or storm surge) based on colors. And it doesn't have to be uniform. It can be skewed to show the heavy surge impacts on the south side of the system and heavy rain impacts on the north side like Ian had. But one graphic showing likelihood of impacts would be far more useful than a cone showing where the center might go.
  17. cptcatz
    I see the entire month of September as peak season. I'm pretty sure that every September in the history of hurricane tracking has been "active". I see an active July and August as front loaded and an active October and November as backloaded. Fiona and Ian occurred during peak season and I wouldn't consider those being included in a backloaded season.
  18. cptcatz
    Not a certainty, see 2020 hurricane Eta.
  19. cptcatz
    Solid convection this morning
  20. cptcatz
    NHC puts out the wind probability maps which is the type of graphic they should be using for the entire storm. Move away from the cone and stick with a color coded graphic like this but for all impacts, not just wind.
  21. cptcatz
    The problem is the media these days sensationalizes everything and goes nuts when a tropical storm or weak hurricane hits. People then think "oh that's all that happens during a hurricane" not realizing the difference between a cat 1 and cat 4/5 hurricane. Then when a cat 4/5 is approaching they brush it off. The media is the one playing the boy who cried wolf game.
  22. cptcatz
    We're getting to a point where this so called backloaded season may not happen either.
  23. cptcatz
    18z GEFS backing way off. Strange system we have.
  24. cptcatz
    According to Tropical Tidbits this is now 91L.
  25. cptcatz
    Strange though that none of the operational models really do much with this wave. They all keep it weak and into central America or it seems the GFS strings it out and splits it apart between the greater Antilles. One of the things I'm seeing with the models this year is they don't pick up on cyclogenesis until right before it happens which is what we saw with Ian.
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