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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    RGEM really likes the upper low/ TPV swinging in. It even has some FGEN over east TN: I wonder if that might turn into something like an arctic front with 20:1 ratios?
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think maybe if we just pretend this is and old fashioned I-40, 2-4" clipper, just forget the precip. to our south, we might not be too far off.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    The more I looked at the 500-700mb relative humidity depicted on the Euro, I actually got a little bit more optimistic.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    MRX notes the main mechanism for lift is being in the right entrance region of a jet and that looks pretty well set: The lagging jet initially over Montana and Wyoming in the gif above tries to help buckle it But there has to be some precipitable water/ relative humidity to lift. Most of our deeper, mid level moisture is west Pac moisture Some gulf moisture gets involved late, and I think there is some room for the Euro to improve here, but not much.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro looked a little less dry, but not by much. 4 run qpf trend
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z NAM goes full on Miller B with bit of lp running up through the foothills of the Apps.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    AAAnnnddd it's snowing a little bit here now.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think western areas probably are looking better than eastern ones.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Can't believe I'm saying this, but Im actually rooting for the NBM of the models I posted above.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are most of the 6z accumulation maps:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro looks like it might have some of the parallel convection too:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I noticed with the 6z RGEM was convection parallel to the Gulf Coast. That's a fail mode we haven't dealt with in a while, so something to watch out for. I also think there is a bit of a transfer (like y'all mentioned overnight) in those frames too from FL panhandle to GA coast.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    How's everybody holding up? We didn't have it to bad in my part of Morgan County, but I can definitely tell with daylight that there was some minor flooding near me last night, more than we had with any other part of the event.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    rgem at the end of its run
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    This morning's WPC depiction has a low over New Orleans and a 1052 high in western ND near the Canadian border: you'd think that would work out pretty well.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro def seemed to tick colder with its 12z solution, from 6z. Just based on eyeballing thicknesses and precip types on weatherbell.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Even the NAVGEM jumped north. Usually it is the most suppressed.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro: Maybe a touch warmer with thermals than 0z 6z GFS: As noted overnight GFS doesn't have as much influence from the northern upper low. But the 6z seemed like it had a touch more.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Pouring the sleet up here in MoCo for whatever reason...
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z ICON isn’t a bad pass of the assorted shortwaves.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    CMC almost does a happy median in the scenario I outlined a few posts back. Some snow from the initial wave and then more when the trailer tries a partial phase with the big TPV lobe rotating to our NW.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I must have mixed up the GFS and CMC when I posted the above lol. I was toggling between the two waiting for the Canadian to come in.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know what I was looking at before, but yeah it does look like it might still have it.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Gulf Coast is only 500% of normal for snow. They need more!
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    CMC suppressed as well. Looks a lot like the GFS.
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