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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    The 18z control was definitely a bad run for Nashville, but better for east TN folks. I would say it was on its own at 12z but if we count the Euro ensemble control as a low resolution version of the operational, that run was much better for eastern areas than 12z.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    If we count the control as having any bearing on the Euro OP that run was a small scootchle towards the GFS
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro control is definitely producing more precip over east TN than the 12z control. little less press from the TPV in Canada.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think for everybody east of Nashville its sketchy.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    My silliness aside, like some of you have said, there is still upside to even that run (it could trend better) and downside or it could trend much worse (viz. Euro)
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think that's a Title IX violation.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here is the run:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll post a gif of the system and snow totals for posterity when its over
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Out to 105 and three areas of LP are trying to form in the Gulf, S GA, and the Atlantic
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Def looked good for western areas.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think there may still be some shifts until the cutter works its way through by Saturday.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z GFS is rolling. Time to spin the wheel of fortune.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Don't forget posting some long range hi-res precip output to get hopes up:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    At least we still have the storm tomorrow to run into and change up that big low.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    There’s a lot riding on how much thunder we get tomorrow.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    At least we still have one of the Euro machine learning models:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Kind of like the GFS at 12z yesterday. EDIT, 18z.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    As far as I can tell the second wave is digging like the 6z control so far, further west and slower: 12z on the left, 0z on the right:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    So far a taller western ridge on the 12z Euro:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro control was a lot slower and deeper with the trailing wave. It almost looked like it was trying for a suppressed Miller A:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro was taller with the western ridge. We’ll see what that means on the control in about an hour or so.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    It does look taller so, it could be part of why the s/w digs more. But I think a lot depends one how those PNA ridges tilt too.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think it’s just a matter of which s/w the focus is on. The first one is trending more weak sauce. But the second one is trending deeper and slower, at least so far.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Actually I thought that was the 12z OP, but that is the 12z Control. Here is the 12z OP at the same time stamp: apologies.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z EPC control dug and slowed the trailing shortwave a lot more: 18z control on the left, 12z OP on right Doesn't quite go out far enough, but I suspect that was about to be a nice Miller A.
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