midatlanticweather

Seems to have been the story this year though! Hopes in both ensembles and the ops pretty quickly slip and then the next threat becomes the focus.. rinse, repeat. Even a blind squirrel will occasionally find a nut, I just hope we get a good one before the year is done! I appreciate the response and get it, but it seems when things start getting worse as a trend, the trend only gets worse in subsequent runs. It is not a good year down this way!

I was just remembering January 25, 2000 - That was a fun ride! Second Guessing Mother Nature: Forecasting the Surprise Snow of January 2000 (nasa.gov)

We just have not come up good in the end.. no matter what the ops vs ensembles have shown. Just want to see some good runs stay good!

Man! We are really sucking on getting good patterns to pay off or be cold. WOW! GFS was a shit the blinds run. Every positive turned to negative. Call me captain obvious, but this is not a good look.

Got some light snow now in Purcellville too! YAY!

35/28.. Hoping to see some good flakes for a few minutes at least.

Bump

Went down to 23 last night. Up to 31 now. I would not be surprised for 5 minutes of pingers before the cold rain settles in. Blah humbug!

Why.. why why.. is it so warm! LOL! The track is not bad, but the warmth is annoying. Maybe can tick down on the temps a bit and be happier. GFS has been terrible, so I hope it still is, but we do know, we fail easily in these parts so that door is wide open, and we are likely to walk into the failure.

Ya. We will be hoping for the best here, but preparing for the worst. Pinning hopes on the NAM and a very marginal airmass. It will work out somewhere.. get a little elevation and you can start getting a bit more enthusiastic. I am not biting yet. I would think this will be less than 10:1 during the day. Snowfall accumulation should be reduced because it is the NAM, it is not 10:1, and we just are not super cold. NOW, we do have a good sun angle (had to say it!) so that at least is helpful, but falling at night would be better.

NAM brings the snow N&W areas! Just hoping trends continue and more get some snow love on all models.

There was one that has to be late January/early February that was out this way. I lived in Sterling and it started as a mix of sleet and snow, but evaporative cooling kicked in and turned me to snow.. not far down the road in Fairfax it turned over and I think nothing in DC. There was a playoff game on that day.. I cannot remember exact when, but it had to have been 1999.

I am a tracker of all weather, but snow is my favorite! So ya, I will track it more as part of my hobby fun, and closer than any other weather

GFS is absolutely terrible right now. Not sure what model to trust, but it is not the GFS

Oh man! We are in the classic one of the too far North, South, East, West setups - @Ji - This could be west!

I was thinking the same! Jan 3rd painful whiff

It is a convoluted mess! I do not think it can figure out what does what, when it phases, or how.

Heavy rain and some small hail here in Purcellville. Temp dropped to around 50 quick

Oh noooo! That stinks! Hope things turn on soon

3.9 degrees for a low.

5.6/-7

Down to 12.2 and a cold wind chill of negative 4.

14.1 was the coldest thus far. Coldest wind chill was negative 6. Bumped up to 15 again. So cold