midatlanticweather

Better! We need each run to get better from now on!

We need to see eps though.. still useful this far out for sure.

See ya for 18z - Better be a blip.. but you want to see each run get better.. not worse.. Anyways.. thanks for the pbp @stormtracker

GFS is always bad until it shows what we want! :D! We need alignment though for confidence! Will be glued to Euro 12z. I would say to get a new Medium to Long Range thread, but we are in the final week of January and if we have a storm, I say do a storm thread and new med/long range at the same time.. just my 2 cents.

Additionally other models, including the GFS, have been signaling just not consistently. Could have legs. I am so tire... But in it to win it

Definitely liking the changes from what we had all season. Southern stream waking up and being a bigger player is definitely more fun. Not saying we will cash in, but interesting

Never tempt the ability to have a storm go messy! Get it too amped, and it can change! Have to be just right for all snow around here! I think we would have been fine though, especially folks to the west.

A little dusting here in Purcellville.. Like not much of anything. I have seen bands to my north and south.. Kind of disappointing.. Just a little dusting so far.

Good light snow falling finally! 14.3 with a DP of 2! Humidity at 58%, close to when it seems to get saturated enough to really snow. I am actually fixing some cameras outside and enjoying the snow falling!

Super small intermittent flurries in Purcellville VA. 15.5 degrees and -4 DP

15.1 dp is still -3 Humidity ticked up 3% in the last hour to 43%

DP of -5 is not good for that prediction

Ya, geting a winter storm at the start of an arctic intrusion is not all that common. School may be closed for most if not all the week in spots.

The dirty sleet piles will look like sand!!

17.1 with DP of 2. WC of 6 Brrrrr

28.9 and dropping steadily. DP 6

All fine and dandy until you start realizing that it does an ok job seeing warm air intrusions. Amounts may be off a lot of times, but for us, it does hold weight... have seen it many times. You cannot ignore it. I do not think it is in its wheelhouse yet, but pretty close and probably we can really weight it more tonight. Already though, it should give pause. It is a completely viable option. We live in a place where it is super hard to get good clean snow from start to end.. we do mixing very well.. so don't be so sure.

Exactly. As noted in the past, when models start losing ground to warm nose intrusions they have a hard time reversing course (meaning they picked up on something). We want to see improvement every step of the way until go time. We do not have much longer for improvements! And we have been slowly and sometimes not so slowly losing ground every step of the way. The pull north could kill it! And I was not worried about freezing rain at all until now.

The hunt can be so much fun. I love it too man.. It is an addiction

The first graphic is the whole event. The one with a little less is through 7pm Sunday.

We will get nam'd tomorrow night

We are seeing the snow whittled away. Who says we can't fail? We can fail some.. and win some.. just sucks to get sucked in with pretty colors! Still worry about that last pull north before a little recovery. But I am the Debbie downer, but these situations stink.

I have to think that we get that last minute north jump.. and it is a scary point for me. Riding the line this far out is not a good recipe... except for disaster. Warm air seems to sneak north faster and not what you think.. sometimes it is wrong on models, but no cushion is the deal. Front thump looks like the win.. then sleety mess. Crazy we became the edge. We gotta drop that zero line in all levels!