BTRWx's Thanks Giving

1 minute ago, NoVaWx said:

I’m probably the only one on here that loves freezing rain. Small amounts are boring cuz only colder surfaces ice up but I would love a huge ice storm with 4” of ice accretion.  

Zr has its moments.

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

All models today are so borderline witb mid level temps that it's nearly impossible to have confidence. The optimistic side of the coin is snow moves in hot and heavy and lasts a little longer than expected before mixing. Pessimistic side of the coin is mid levels don't support any snow at onset and it's just a bunch of sleet before rain.  

Surface temps are no different. The euro had the 32 line straddling the beltway. That's pretty cold man. If the column does support snow and the surface is at or below freezing then it could be winter wonderland very quickly for everyone along and west of 95. 

The basic climo side of the argument says prepare to be disappointed except in the preferred zones where climo isn't so hostile.  

Lastly is precip amounts... this is a juiced up storm with upper level support. Rates look to come in hot and heavy with the WWA piece. So whatever the precip type is its going to mean business from onset until sometime in the early afternoon.  

Gun to head.... Winchester-Mt airy-Parkville line will get 3-5" of various frozen precip types. Burbs and beltway crews in the 1-3" range if everything breaks right but T-2" is prob a better call.  

Fairfax county schools will be closed even if its all rain. 

I remember those days.

23 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Can you post a link?  Thanks

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/11/13/messy-mix-snow-sleet-rain-likely-thursday-accumulation-slick-travel-possible-colder-locations/?utm_term=.3cf4a6207bbb

CWG has a nice write-up from Wes!

This has to be something good!

1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Maybe this will be a surprise storm. LWX isn't excited 
 

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter

Their afd shows high uncertainty.

2 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

I'm assuming that anything South of Fredricksburg is going to be a cold rain, right?

Not necessarily, here's the latest 3km NAM

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2018111312&fh=60

15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

@yoda I think you had asked for this. 

That's amazing to see for November!

eta: not a single dud!

They may need a Watch out west.

Code yellow in the cities huh?  Impressive!

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

The latest GFS is upping its game especially N/W of the cities.

Kuchera

 

Now some may ask why I bother posting the 10:1 when the Kuchera is available. I do it because when there is a decent discrepancy between the two it is indicative of a very marginal setup with temps for a storm. So if we see a slightly colder solution verify then there is a decent chance that the 10:1 is going to be more reflective of the reality. So just look at the 10:1 as the best case scenario. 

 

 

 

 

Not in November

The weatherbrains crew came up with the best next best thing for social media! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oJcOzlGk9k

Fast-forward to 24:30

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

Flipped between the two, it's an improvement. I'll share the map. Hopefully Maue won't hunt me down.

 

Why is he using 10:1?

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

The CPC map is centered on Thanksgiving though...wouldn’t we want to show the analog for D+3?  

Is there similar guidance for that time period?

eta: I guess that role goes to wpc.

1987 is the top analog from CPC! (Though that would be the week after the Veteran's Day storm)

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Big jump on the snowfall EPS means map. Would post but I believe NorthArlington101 is going to do that. Now have the 2" line south of Balt/DC with 3-4 inches in NW burbs. 

Hit refresh to see Arlington's op.  Impressive look!

BWI: 34"

DCA: 24"

IAD: 38"

RIC: 17"

Tiebreaker (SBY): 12"

Temps bust today?  I'm at 57

1 hour ago, frd said:

Surprising to me at least the general wording from Ryan. Stated not much of a signal in the East.   

 

I think Maue needs to focus on his maps instead of forecasting seasonal. lol

56 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Hmm...not bad for mid Nov.

 

It's less than 300 hrs out. lol

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

DT and JB both going for a bonkers winter. Lord help us.

Throw in Paul Dorian from Perspecta Weather.

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Don't know about you guys but I'm looking forward to the over amplified, excessively cold, and fake d15 snowstorms to start showing up on the GFS. Should start happening regularly within 2-3 weeks. 

Definitely not looking forward to the fake stuff.

5+ years out of school and still no luck in the business world!

CPC is expecting a warm start to Nov!

I made another table for the strongest -NAO winters.  Pretty remarkable consistency in these results!

eta: 1969 had cold northeast Pacific waters